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Accomplishments

Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise

  • Initiated in 2003, our partners within NOAA have developed a hydrodynamic tide and storm surge model of Pamlico, Albemarle, Core, and Bogue Sounds as well as adjacent estuarine and coastal waters.
    • A high-resolution, topographic /bathymetric digital elevation model (DEM) is combined with the hydrodynamic model to integrate recent airborne LIDAR topographic data and bathymetric data.
    • CSCOR has competitively funded three research proposals that will integrate ecological models and the hydrodynamic model into a broad based landscape model to incorporate spatial structure affects on the behavior and functioning of the landscape as a whole.
    • Completion of the North Carolina project is projected in 2008, and we are currently planning expansion of EESLR to the Florida/Alabama Panhandle.

One-NOAA Event Discusses Pressing Issue of Sea Level Rise in Coastal Alabama and the Florida Panhandle

GLOBEC

NORTHWEST ATLANTIC

  • GLOBEC research contributed to a recent assessment of climate change impacts on the Northeastern United States (http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/).  A chapter on impacts to marine resources was heavily influenced by findings from the GLOBEC northwest Atlantic/Georges Bank program.
  • A circulation model was developed under the GLOBEC Georges Bank program to evaluate the effectiveness of closed areas as a scallop management strategy on Georges Bank. 
  • In 1998 GLOBEC models were used to predict the trajectories and settlement patterns of larval scallops.
    • These results were presented to the New England Fisheries Management Council, and the Secretary of Commerce leading to decisions on the reopening of closed areas to scalloping.
    • This also lead to the identification of important source areas for scallop larvae including a designated Habitat Area of Particular Concern for scallops.
  • As a result of research from the GLOBEC Northwest Atlantic Program, and later, CSCOR's Synthesis and Forecasting program,the Gulf of Maine Ocean Observing System (GoMOOS) has developed an operational system. This system can:
    • Predict temperatures at Buoy N from the NAO, and from the predicted or observed temperatures to forecast Calanus abundance. 
    • From the Calanus data, the number of right whale births can also be predicted.
  • GLOBEC has been a major source of funding for the development of physical models that can be coupled with ecological models. 
    • The most prominent of these physical models developed under GLOBEC funding has been the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS).  ROMS is used around the world in coastal ocean applications.
    • Within NOAA/NOS, ROMS is being used operationally by the Coast Survey Development Laboratory and the Center for Operational Ocean Products and Services in their implementation of some of the Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System (PORTS) activities. 
    • A coastal ocean forecasting system using ROMS has been developed for the Long-term Ecosystem Observatory on New Jersey’s inner shelf.
  • A new approach to modeling has been developed called the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FV-COM), now a  Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecasting System (NECOFS)
    • International interest has been expressed from China for environmental assessment of construction projects along the coast in China, and from South Korea for the storm surge forecast.
  • Applications for this model include:
    • Predicting icing in the Gulf of Maine for the National Weather Service,
    • Identifying sea surface currents for the Coast Guard (search and rescue) and the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (water quality monitoring),
    • Predicting seawater temperatures for the mackerel fishing industry, and sea level for storm surge forecasting.  

 

NORTHEAST PACIFIC
  • GLOBEC scientists were instrumental in the writing of a document that summarized the broader ecosystem interactions and dynamics of krill in the California Current. This review led to a Pacific Fisheries Management Council decision to ban the harvest of krill http://www.pcouncil.org/cps/cpskrill.html. 
  • U.S. GLOBEC research contributed to the decision by the Pacific Fishery Management Council to ban commercial and sport fishing off the coast of California and most of Oregon.
    • Scientists were awarded a NOAA Bronze Medal for developing a web-based description of eleven ocean productivity indicators which enable forecasts of west coast adult salmon returns six months to one year sooner than previous techniques. 
    • Forecasts of Coho and Chinook salmon returns are posted on the website of the Northwest Fisheries Science Center, a partner in GLOBEC research. 
  • U.S. GLOBEC support was essential for establishing the Southeast Alaska Coastal Monitoring (SECM) project of NOAA/NMFS Auke Bay Laboratories.
    • The SECM has focused on oceanographic and biological factors affecting the growth and survival of southeast Alaska juvenile pink and coho salmon entering the Gulf of Alaska. 
    • Scientists from NOAA/NMFS and the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG) are now using information from the monitoring program to develop prediction models for pink salmon returns to Southeast Alaska, and ADFG has incorporated SECM data into its current region wide forecast.
  • GLOBEC supported the first installation, testing, and use of long-range surface High Frequency (HF) radars. 
    • This program showed that the systems were capable of mapping ocean surface currents from land to 150 km offshore. 
    • Building on the southern Oregon array installed for GLOBEC, there is now an integrated network of long-range HF radars that provide near real-time current mapping along the entire Oregon coast, from southern Washington to northern California. 
    • Similar systems are being installed regionally around the whole U.S. coast.   NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center is operating a demonstration project to gather these data from cooperating systems around the country. 
    • These systems contribute to the developing International Ocean Observing System (IOOS), with the aim of promoting safe marine navigation, monitoring variations in the circulation at time scales from tidal to interannual, and contributing measured currents to help guide data assimilative models.
  • GLOBEC investigators have been at the forefront of developing atmospheric and ocean indices for the Pacific. 
    • These products have applications that include uses in climate monitoring, transport-based indices for fisheries/ecosystem, ocean slick monitoring, and other areas such as marine aviation and transportation incident investigations, wind/wave power generation research, and education/outreach.
    • The products are accessible through FTP and inter-operable web-based data servers

 

Climate Change Impacts

  • The project website now displays daily 7-day forecasts for intertidal temperatures in 7 US and international coastal areas.
  • In New Zealand, the product was used to explain mass die-offs of sea urchins, which occurred during a period of anomalously high temperature. 
  • The project leaders addressed the national NERRS research managers meeting in October 2007, to present the initial results of their work and receive feedback on their model products.
  • A new “vegetation type” has been developed for National Weather Service (NWS) models.  Currently, NWS uses vegetation types such as grasslands, forests, etc. in calculating surface temperature predictions.  This project has included mussel beds as a new “vegetation type” in NWS models.