The National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program:

Past, Present, and Future

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hearing of the

 

Subcommittee on Research

Committee on Science

U.S. House of Representatives

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, May 8, 2003

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Written Testimony

 

Submitted By

 

Dr. S. Shyam Sunder

Chief, Materials and Construction Research Division

Building and Fire Research Laboratory

National Institute of Standards and Technology


 

 

Introduction

 

As a representative of one of the four primary federal agencies that comprise the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), I congratulate the earthquake community and our three partners – the Federal Emergency Management Agency as lead, the United States Geological Survey, and the National Science Foundation – as we celebrate the 25th anniversary of the founding of NEHRP.

 

NEHRP has been an extraordinary, and often exemplary, collaboration between federal agencies, state and local governments, and the private sector.

 

During its first 25 years, NEHRP has contributed in very significant ways to reduce our nation’s vulnerability to earthquakes and NIST is proud to have been a part of that record of accomplishment. 

 

While it is difficult to quantify loss prevention through the adoption of improved mitigation practices, and such measures are very much needed, there is no doubt that NEHRP products and results have contributed in significant ways to reduce the loss of life and economic losses from earthquakes.  In addition, the loss of life from earthquakes in the United States has been small compared with similar earthquakes in other countries.

 

My testimony traces how NIST has contributed to the success of NEHRP.  It also reflects upon the broader public safety challenges the nation now faces and how NEHRP can contribute to meeting those challenges.

 

Earthquakes and Creation of NEHRP

 

Earthquakes are among the most frightening and devastating natural disasters.  They strike virtually without warning, last only seconds, but can leave death and destruction in their wake.

 

Seventy-five million Americans in 39 states face significant risk from earthquakes.   On an annualized basis, earthquake losses amount to about $4 billion a year, while a single earthquake has a loss potential of $100 billion or more. 

 

For example, the 1971 San Fernando earthquake in California killed 65 people and caused $500 million in damage. The 1994 Northridge earthquake caused losses in excess of $40 billion, with $15 billion in insured property losses alone.

 

The San Fernando earthquake led Congress to pass the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 to “reduce the risks of life and property from future earthquakes in the United States through the establishment and maintenance of an effective earthquake hazards reduction program.”  Pursuant to the Act, the Executive Office of the President developed the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program and issued a program plan in June 1978. 

 

Pre-NEHRP Efforts

 

Prior to the creation of NEHRP, NIST and many other government, private-sector organizations and universities were conducting research on ways to improve the seismic design of constructed facilities. 

 

NIST began work in earthquake hazards reduction with its organization in 1969 of the U.S.-Japan Panel on Wind and Seismic Effects under the U.S.-Japan Program in Natural Resources.  This successful bi-lateral program continues to this day, with the 35th annual meeting slated to be held next May. 

 

NIST work also included its significant investigation of the performance of structures in the 1971 San Fernando, California, earthquake. 

 

Also, in 1972, the Applied Technology Council, an organization created by the Structural Engineers Association of California, called for a cooperative effort of practice, research, and government to produce up-to-date seismic design and construction provisions.  A subsequent ATC study completed in 1978 produced design provisions that were a significant advance on existing provisions.

 

Role Assigned for NIST in NEHRP

 

NIST was a natural part of NEHRP because of its long-time role in providing measurements, standards, and technology to help federal, state, and local government agencies and the private sector protect the nation and its citizens from natural as well as manmade threats.

 

As part of NEHRP, NIST took on three assignments:

 

·        First, to develop seismic design and construction standards for consideration and subsequent adoption in federal construction, and encourage the adoption of improved seismic provisions in state and local building codes;

 

·        Second, to assist and cooperate with federal, state, and local agencies, research and professional organizations, model code groups and others that are involved in developing, testing, and improving seismic design and construction provisions to be incorporated into local codes, standards, and practices; and

 

·        Third, to conduct research on performance criteria and supporting measurement technology for earthquake resistant construction.

 

In addition, as part of the USGS-led Post-Earthquake Investigation Program established by the NEHRP Reauthorization Act of 1990, NIST took on another assignment:

 

·        Fourth, to participate in NEHRP post-earthquake investigations and analyze the behavior of structures and lifelines, both those that were damaged and those that were undamaged, and to analyze the effectiveness of the earthquake hazards mitigation programs and actions and how those programs and actions could be strengthened.

 

Products and Results from NIST’s Problem-Focused R&D

 

Through laboratory based problem-focused R&D NIST has made important contributions to earthquake safety over the years.  Examples include our products and results related to:

 

·        bridge column reinforcing requirements,

·        rehabilitation of welded steel moment frame connections,

·        test methods for passive and active seismic energy absorption systems, and

·        precast concrete frames.

 

One example is our work with industry and others on precast concrete frames (Attachment A provides summaries of the other examples).

 

While construction with this type of frame has not been extensive in high seismic regions of the United States, it has enormous benefits in construction speed and quality control.

 

In 1987, NIST initiated a project to develop a precast beam-to-column connection that was economical, easy to construct, and capable of resisting earthquake loads.  A few years later, Pankow Builders, a California general contracting firm specializing in quake-resistant construction, provided funding through the American Concrete Institute (ACI) to further develop the concept.  Close collaboration among NIST, Pankow Builders, and the University of Washington resulted in a hybrid connection that combined the use of low-strength reinforcing steel for energy absorption with high-strength prestressing steel. 

 

Tests at NIST and on a five-story precast building at the University of California at San Diego demonstrated that the concept worked.  NIST-developed guidelines and results were used to obtain approval from a code evaluation service.  In addition, the American Concrete Institute issued standards and the International Building Code has adopted provisions that allow use of the system. 

 

Recently, Pankow Builders used the hybrid connection to build a $128-million, 39-story building in San Francisco.  Topped out in June 2001, the building is the tallest concrete frame building built in a high seismic region. 

 

Several other structures using the hybrid connection have been built, are underway, or on the drawing board.

 

We are very proud of our collaboration with Pankow Builders, the University of Washington and others and are gratified that this design innovation and the contributions of its developers have been widely recognized.  This work has won numerous awards, most recently the Harry H. Edwards Industry Advancement Award of the Precast/Prestressed Concrete Institute.

 

 

Lessons Learned from NIST’s Post-Earthquake Investigations

 

Throughout its history, NIST scientists and engineers have been called in to investigate building failures following fires, earthquakes, high winds, terrorist attacks, construction accidents, and other events.

 

Tragically, we learn many lessons following an earthquake about what type of design and construction works and what does not.  Our goal is to investigate and document building performance and the adequacy of current codes and practices, as well as to identify research needed to mitigate the impact of future earthquakes.

 

Our investigators have traveled not only to earthquake sites in the United States, including the Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989 and the Northridge earthquake in 1994, but also to those places around the world including Japan, Romania, Nicaragua, Mexico, Armenia, and – most recently – Turkey.  The investigation following the 1999 earthquake in Turkey was a cooperative effort led by the USGS, with participation of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

 

Since NIST is not a regulatory agency and does not issue building standards or codes, the institute is viewed as a neutral, “third-party” investigator.  Our investigations are fact-finding, not fault finding.  The focus is on improving public safety and on deriving lessons for the future.  And, by law, the data, analysis, and reports resulting from NIST investigations may not be used in litigation.

 

Formation of ICSSC and Federal Construction

 

One of the early accomplishments of NEHRP was to involve federal agencies with construction responsibilities.  Federally-constructed facilities comprise one of our nation’s largest building sectors.  It was realized early in the NEHRP that it was vital to assist the more than 30 federal agencies that are involved in one way or another in construction to implement earthquake hazards reduction elements into their ongoing programs. 

 

In 1978, the White House directed the Federal Emergency Management Agency to form an Interagency Committee on Seismic Safety in Construction (ICSSC).  ICSSC was assigned to develop and implement seismic deign standards for federal construction.  NIST, with funding from FEMA, has provided the secretariat for ICSSC since its inception, and the Director of NIST (or the Director’s designee) has chaired the ICSSC since 1982.

 

Not only did the ICSSC provide up-to-date seismic design and construction standards and practices that federal agencies used for their own new buildings, but it had a broader effect as well.  An executive order issued by the President in 1990 required both federal and federally-assisted homes, such as new homes with FHA or VA mortgages, be designed and constructed using these standards.

 

This federal mandate was welcomed by the national standards and model building code organizations since it provided incentive for state and local governments to adopt and enforce up-to-date standards and codes to be eligible for federally-assisted construction.  

 

The bottom line result was that NEHRP’s broad goal of making adequate seismic resistance available for all new U.S. building construction was achieved.  This successful outcome would not have been realized without a NIST study that was crucial to the issuance of the executive order.  That study revealed the modest cost implications of the recommended seismic provisions as determined by trial designs.

 

ICSSC was much involved in support to federal agencies in implementation of the executive order for new buildings.  It continues today to provide support for the assessment of the equivalency of model building codes to the NEHRP recommended provisions – the most recent assessment was issued in late 2001 –  and the development of proposed changes to model codes.

 

The ICSSC turned next to the challenge of evaluating and strengthening existing buildings by developing seismic safety standards and assisting federal agencies in implementing a second executive order.  That executive order called for agencies to inventory buildings they own or lease and estimate the costs of mitigating unacceptable seismic risks.   

 

The ICSSC developed policies and practices for evaluation and strengthening of existing federal buildings.  This included seismic safety standards for existing buildings, which were updated recently; guidance to the federal agencies on implementation of the executive order; assistance with estimating the costs of mitigating unacceptable seismic risks; and extensive review and comment in drafting the resulting report.

 

Currently, ICSSC is developing a handbook for the seismic rehabilitation of existing buildings.  This handbook will facilitate implementation of the seismic rehabilitation plan for federal buildings when a policy decision is made to proceed.

 

Major Challenges for the Future

 

NEHRP has come a long way.  But, it faces many challenges in meeting its legislative mandate to “reduce the risks of life and property from future earthquakes in the United States.”

 

Four of the key challenges faced by NEHRP are to:

·        fill the technology transfer gap between basic research and practice,

·        develop and implement seismic safety standards for lifelines,

·        develop and implement a multi-hazard approach to risk mitigation, and

·        better coordinate post-earthquake investigations.

 

Challenge #1:  Filling the Basic Research to Practice Gap in Earthquake Engineering 

Just as NEHRP strives for better ways to improve the performance of construction during an earthquake, NIST and its three NEHRP partners are continually looking for better ways to carry out our mission. 

 

Early in 2001, a NEHRP Strategic Plan was approved by each of the four participating agencies.  This plan, developed in partnership with stakeholders, has identified the emergence of a technology transfer gap that limits the adaptation of basic research knowledge into practice.  The plan recommends a much-expanded problem-focused research and guidelines development effort:

·        to develop future design, construction, evaluation, and upgrade guidelines and standards of practice, and

·        to facilitate the development of new mitigation technologies.

It further recommends that NIST, in partnership with FEMA and other NEHRP agencies, should develop a coordinated plan to support this effort. 

 

NIST looks forward to working with its NEHRP agency partners and with industry, academia, and the broader stakeholder community to address this gap. 

 

As a first step, NIST requested the Applied Technology Council, a non-profit corporation to advance engineering applications for natural hazard mitigation, to convene a workshop of national leaders in earthquake design, practice, regulation, and construction in July of 2002.

 

The purpose of the meeting was to assess the state of knowledge and practice and to suggest an action plan to address the gap between basic research and practice. 

 

Recently completed, the action plan identifies industry priorities in two areas:

·        support for the seismic code development process through technical assistance and development of the technical basis for performance standards; and

·        improved seismic design productivity through the development of tools and guidance and evaluation of advanced technologies and practices. 

 

This action plan fits within the broader research and outreach plan developed by the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute titled “Securing Society Against Catastrophic Earthquake Losses.”  It also incorporates issues raised under Challenge #2 below.

 

NIST now looks forward to working with the stakeholder community to explore ways to best meet those needs via a public-private partnership.  We expect this effort will build on NSF-funded basic academic research, including that conducted as part of the George E. Brown, Jr. Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) Consortium.

 

Challenge #2:  Developing and Implementing Seismic Safety Standards for Lifelines 

While up- to-date seismic provisions for building codes are available today, there are no nationally accepted standards or guidelines for lifelines, except for highway structures and nuclear facilities. 

 

Lifelines include all types of transportation (highways, airports, railways, waterways, ports and harbors), communication, and utility (electric power, gas and liquid fuels, water and wastewater) systems.  They provide the physical infrastructure that support most human activities.

 

The American Lifelines Alliance, with support from FEMA, is working on the development of guidelines and standards for lifelines.  Concurrently, the ICSSC has completed an initial survey of lifelines that are the responsibility of federal agencies.  It has begun a major effort to identify the needs for standards and guidance for these lifelines, with an initial focus on electric power generation, transmission, and distribution facilities.  It is anticipated that implementation of the lifelines plan would be primarily through the existing voluntary standards system with a possible executive order requiring agencies to adopt and use the standards for federal lifelines. 

 

While these initial public and private sector efforts are laudable, I believe NEHRP has much work to do before the nation will have seismic standards and guidelines for lifelines similar to those we already have for new and existing buildings.

 

Challenge #3: Developing and Implementing a Multi-Hazard Approach to Risk Mitigation

Seismic hazards are one of many significant hazards that must be considered in design and construction.  From the viewpoint of an owner or end-user, a multi-hazard approach to risk mitigation is desirable since it likely will yield more cost-effective solutions.  This is especially true for existing construction, where seismic retrofit investments may be better justified when made in conjunction with needed functional and security upgrades.

 

A careful consideration of regional hazards such as earthquakes and high winds shows that these hazards pose a major risk since they coincide with geographical areas that have seen significant population growth and development in recent years.  The risks from fire hazards are spread across the nation, while the risks from terrorist or technological threats are limited to certain critical facilities or locations.

 

In comparison with the $4 billion annualized loss estimate for earthquakes, the annualized loss estimate for extreme winds is about $8 B/year and for fire hazards is about $12 billion a year.  Similarly, in comparison with the $100 billion loss potential for a major earthquake, a single hurricane event has a loss potential of as much as $50 billion.  Major earthquakes, high winds, and other extreme hazards have one thing in common – they are all low probability, high consequence events.

 

There is significant merit to multi-hazard risk mitigation if practicable tools, practices, and guidance can be developed.  Examples include:

 

·        improving overall structural integrity by mitigating progressive collapse, where NIST is already working with the private sector to develop needed tools and guidance;

·        conducting multi-hazard vulnerability assessments using an integrated framework based on standard information representation models and interoperable software tools; and

·        evaluating the cost-effectiveness of alternate risk reduction technologies and strategies using integrated software tools for making cost-risk trade-offs.

 

I believe NEHRP has a unique opportunity to provide national leadership in charting the course for a multi-hazard approach to risk mitigation, while continuing with its important risk reduction mission for earthquakes.  The development of the HAZUS regional loss estimation model – that now covers earthquakes, wind, and floods – is an excellent example of how NEHRP has already demonstrated this kind of leadership.

 

Challenge #4:  Coordinating Post-Earthquake Investigations 

NEHRP has long supported post-earthquake investigations, and in 1990 Congress specifically authorized the establishment of a coordinated program to conduct such investigations with leadership to be provided by the United States Geological Survey.  Consistent with this legislation and the recent NEHRP Strategic Plan, an implementation plan has been completed to coordinate future post-earthquake investigations.

 

In the aftermath of the World Trade Center disaster, Congress has given NIST additional authorities – beyond those NIST already had – through the National Construction Safety Team Act. The legislation, which is modeled in many ways on the National Transportation Safety Board, was introduced by the House Science Committee and signed into law by President Bush on October 1, 2002.

 

That law, Public Law 107-231, established NIST as the lead agency to investigate building performance, emergency response, and evacuation procedures in the wake of building failures that result in substantial loss of life or that posed significant potential of substantial loss of life.  Currently, NIST is conducting two major investigations: a building and fire safety investigation of the September 11, 2001, World Trade Center building collapses; and the February 20, 2003, fire at The Station nightclub in West Warwick, R.I.  The act calls for NIST to establish investigative teams including public and private-sector experts.

 

NIST is developing agreements for future investigations with other federal agencies, and with the private sector so that we can quickly and effectively deploy investigation teams and so that we can share the results of those investigations and related research.

 

The National Construction Safety Team Act gives NIST the authority to dispatch teams of experts within 48 hours when practicable.  The law gives the teams a clear authority to:

 

·        Establish the likely technical cause of building failures;

·        Evaluate the technical aspects of procedures used for evacuation and emergency response;

·        Recommend specific changes to building codes, standards and practices;

·        Recommend any research or other appropriate actions needed to improve the structural safety of buildings, and/or changes in emergency response and evacuation procedures; and

·        Make final recommendations within 90 days of completing an investigation.

 

The act gives NIST and its investigation teams comprehensive authorities to:

 

·        Access the site of a building disaster;

·        Subpoena evidence;

·        Access key pieces of evidence such as records and documents, and

·        Move and preserve evidence.

 

Congress anticipated the NCST Act to be applicable to building failures caused by earthquakes.  The Act specifies that the NIST Director develop implementing procedures that “provide for coordination with Federal, State, and local entities that may sponsor research on investigations of building failures, including research conducted under the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977.”  In addition, the Committee Report 107-530 published by the House Science Committee on June 25, 2002, states that “The Director should clearly define how earthquake researchers and Teams will carry out their responsibilities in a coordinated fashion in cases where building failures have been caused by an earthquake.”

 

NIST’s responsibilities under the NSCT Act have been incorporated in the recently completed plan to coordinate post-earthquake investigations issued by the four agencies comprising the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program.  The plan (USGS circular #1242) states that, within 48 hours, NIST will examine the relevant factors associated with building failures that occur as a result of the earthquake and will make reasonable efforts to consult with the other NEHRP agencies prior to determining whether to conduct an investigation under the Act.  Any NIST investigation conducted under the authority of the Act will be limited to building failures on one or more buildings or on one or more class or type of buildings selected by NIST.

 

Conclusion

 

As we look to the future, I believe NEHRP will continue to play a vital leadership role in making the performance of our buildings and lifelines highly measurable and predictable.  This measurement and prediction ability will provide the critical underpinning upon which to achieve specified levels of performance and seismic risk reduction via workable and practicable solutions.  Our nation will be safer and more secure for it. 

 

We at NIST look forward to contributing our part to address the challenges that lie ahead.


Attachment A

 

Products and Results of NIST Problem-Focused R&D

 

Bridge Column Reinforcing Requirements

Immediately following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake, NIST dispatched a team to document and investigate structural damage caused by the earthquake.  In particular, many bridge columns suffered either significant damage or failure.  As a result, design requirements for bridge columns in seismic zones were modified.  However, the adequacy of these design modifications was not verified. 

 

NIST initiated a project in the 1980s to provide the necessary verification, consisting of two full-scale bridge column tests.  The challenges arose from the size of the test specimens and the need to apply horizontal seismic loads in addition to vertical gravity loads.  The series of column tests was the first of its kind and as such, provided important benchmark data.  The tests also verified the adequacy of the revised design specifications. 

 

In addition, NIST tested companion 1/6-scale bridge columns and the results indicated that the behavior of full-scale bridge columns could be extrapolated from small-scale bridge column tests.  This finding suggests that high costs associated with full-scale tests are not always necessary and less expensive small-scale tests may be sufficient.

 

Welded Steel Moment Frame Connections

Steel framed buildings traditionally have been considered to be among the most seismic resistant structural systems.  The January 17, 1994, Northridge Earthquake, however, caused unexpected damage to many welded steel moment frame buildings.  In general, the damage was confined to beam-to-column connections that suffered brittle fracture in the flange welds. 

 

In response to these failures, NIST initiated a project to study methods to modify existing buildings to improve their seismic performance, in collaboration with the American Institute of Steel Construction, the University of Texas, the University of California at San Diego, and Lehigh University.  Eighteen full-scale tests were conducted on three different methods to reduce the stresses at the beam-to-column connections.

 

The result of this multi-year effort was the publication of comprehensive guidelines for seismic rehabilitation of existing welded steel frame buildings as an AISC Design Guide. The guidelines provided experimentally-validated response prediction models and design equations for the three connection modification concepts that shift loading from the welded joints into the beams, thus enabling the structure to absorb the earthquake’s energy in a non-brittle manner. 

 

Test Methods for Structural Control Devices

Structural control devices, such as seismic isolation and passive energy dissipators, have been installed in numerous structures throughout the world and have proven to be effective in reducing both motions and forces during earthquakes and strong winds.  Still these devices are generally produced in small quantities, specifically for each application. 

 

To guarantee that the devices will perform as the designer expected, many building codes and guidelines recommend that the devices be tested before installation.  While some of these standards describe a limited number of specific tests, widely accepted test standards do not yet exist.  Such standards are useful to designers, manufacturers, and contractors, since they will make the process of validating these devices consistent.

 

To address the issue NIST has developed two sets of testing guidelines.  The Guidelines for Pre-Qualification, Prototype, and Quality Control Testing of Seismic Isolation Systems was issued in 1996.  ASCE has developed and is currently balloting a national consensus standard based on the NIST-developed isolation device testing guidelines. 

 

While seismic isolation is generally accepted in earthquake engineering practice and recognized in the building codes in high-seismic areas, passive structural dampers are still gaining acceptance and semi-active devices are still in the development phase.  NIST has just issued Guidelines for Testing Passive Energy Dissipation Devices.