BTS Releases Transportation Services Index (TSI);

BTS 10-05
Dave Smallen, Tel: (202) 366-5568
Monday, March 7, 2005

BTS Releases Transportation Services Index (TSI);
Index Fell 0.2 Percent in December from November

The Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 0.2 percent in December to 127.3 (1996=100) for the first decline after three consecutive monthly increases, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).

BTS, a part of DOT’s Research and Innovative Technology Administration, reported that the December level of 127.3 for the combined freight and passenger index was 5.1 percent higher than the December 2003 level of 121.2 (Table 2). The December 2004 level was 24.9 percent higher than the December level of the base year of 1996 (Table 3).

TSI is a single seasonally adjusted index of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries, including railroad, air, truck, inland waterways, pipeline, and local transit.

The index includes historic data from 1990 to the present. The TSI is still under development and is considered experimental. The index measures change from the monthly average for the base year of 1996. The next release is scheduled for April 6.

Transportation Services Index for Freight

The TSI for freight fell 0.4 percent to 128.4 in December from the November level of 128.9 for the first decline after three consecutive monthly increases (Table 1). The December 2004 level of 128.4 is 4.5 percent higher than the December 2003 level of 122.9 (Table 4).

Transportation Services Index for Passengers

The TSI for passengers rose 0.1 percent to 125.3 in December from the November level of 125.1 (Table 1). The passenger index fell slightly in November after five consecutive monthly increases. The December 2004 level of 125.3 is 6.6 percent higher than the December 2003 level of 117.6 (Table 5).

More on TSI

During the six months ending in December, the TSI rose 1.4 percent, the Freight TSI rose 1.4 percent and the Passenger TSI rose 1.5 percent.

Note: TSI numbers for September (Total, Freight, and Passenger) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The September TSI is 126.0, revised from the 125.1 reported in the February release. The September Freight TSI is 126.9, revised from the 126.2 reported in the February release. The September Passenger TSI is 124.3, revised from the 122.8 reported in the February release. The TSI for October, November and December are preliminary.

TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest three months’ index numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. All other revisions are held until an annual comprehensive revision of the TSI which will be released as part of the following June TSI release. More information about the revision policy is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.

Table 1: Percent changes in the Transportation Services Index by Month
Since June 2004 (Seasonally Adjusted)

	TSI		Freight		Passenger
	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change
June	125.5	0.4	126.6	-0.1	123.4	1.5
July	126.0	0.4	127.2	0.5	123.9	0.4
August	125.5	-0.4	126.4	-0.6	124.0	0.1
September^R	126.0	0.4	126.9	0.4	124.3	0.3
October^P	126.7	0.6	127.6	0.6	125.2	0.7
November^P	127.6	0.7	128.9	1.0	125.1	0.0
December^P	127.3	-0.2	128.4	-0.4	125.3	0.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Note: P = preliminary
R = revised

Table 2: Percent changes in the Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
December TSI (Monthly average of 1996 = 100)

	TSI	Percent change from previous year
1996	101.9	4.0
1997	109.7	7.7
1998	113.1	3.0
1999	118.0	4.4
2000	113.7	-3.6
2001	109.9	-3.4
2002	117.8	7.2
2003	121.2	2.9
2004^P	127.3	5.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Note: P = preliminary

Table 3: Percent Changes in the Transportation Services Index from Previous Years to 2004
December to December

Percent change to December 2004	Since December . . .	Duration
5.1	2003	One Year
8.1	2002	Two Years
15.9	2001	Three Years
11.9	2000	Four Years
7.9	1999	Five Years
12.6	1998	Six Years
16.0	1997	Seven Years
24.9	1996	Eight Years

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Table 4: Percent changes in the Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
December Freight TSI (Monthly average of 1996 = 100)

	Freight TSI	Percent change from previous year
1996	101.8	3.4
1997	111.4	9.5
1998	114.7	3.0
1999	120.6	5.1
2000	111.9	-7.2
2001	111.1	-0.7
2002	119.2	7.3
2003	122.9	3.1
2004^P	128.4	4.5

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Note: P = preliminary

Table 5: Percent changes in the Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year December Passenger TSI (Monthly average of 1996 = 100)

The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.

The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The TSI is still under development and is therefore considered experimental. It is being examined for refinements in data sources, methodologies and interpretations.

Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),

Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and

The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.

The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.

	Passenger TSI	Percent change from previous year
1996	102.2	5.4
1997	106.1	3.8
1998	109.6	3.3
1999	112.6	2.8
2000	118.7	5.4
2001	107.7	-9.3
2002	115.0	6.9
2003	117.6	2.2
2004^P	125.3	6.6