BTS Releases Transportation Services Index (TSI);
Index Fell 1.0 Percent in November from October

            The Transportation Services Index (TSI) for November fell 1.0 percent from its October level, declining for the first time since August, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).  

            The index has declined 2.7 percent since reaching its peak of 112.1 in May (Table 2). The index is at its second-lowest point since August 2004, being exceeded only by August 2006.  For additional historical data prior to 2003, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml. 

            For the first 11 months of 2006, the TSI, a combination of the freight and passenger indexes, fell 1.2 percent, the first decline in the period since December-to-November 2001 (Table 3).  

            The November level of 109.1 for the combined freight and passenger index was the lowest November level since 2003.  It was 2.1 percent lower than the November 2005 level, the first decline from November of the previous year since 2001 (Table 4).  The November 2006 level was 9.2 percent higher than the November level of the base year of 2000 (Table 5). 

TSI is a single seasonally adjusted index of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries, including railroad, air, truck, inland waterways, pipeline, and local transit. 

The index includes historic data from 1990 to the present.  The TSI is still under development and is considered experimental.  The index measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. Release of the December index is scheduled for Feb. 14. 

Transportation Services Index for Freight 

            The TSI for freight fell 1.4 percent in November from the October level, declining for the fifth time in six months to drop to its lowest level since January 2004.  The November freight index of 107.6 was down 4.7 percent from its peak of 112.8 in January 2005 (Table 6).  The Freight TSI November 2006 level of 107.6 was the lowest November level since 2003.  The Freight TSI November 2006 level fell 4.1 percent from the November 2005 level, the first decline from November of the previous year since 2001, the largest decline since 2000 and the second largest decline in the last 10 years (Table 7). During the first 11 months of 2006, the Freight TSI fell 3.0 percent, the first decline in the December-to-November period since 2001, the largest decline since 2000 and the second largest decline in the last 10 years (Table 3).  

Transportation Services Index for Passengers 

            The TSI for passengers fell 0.3 percent in November from the October level, declining after two monthly increases (Table 8).  The Passenger TSI November 2006 level rose 1.1 percent from the November 2005 level, the fifth consecutive increase from November of the previous year but the smallest increase since a decline from November 2000 to November 2001 (Table 9). For the first 11 months of 2006, the Passenger TSI rose 1.4 percent, the fifth consecutive increase in the December-to-November period but the smallest increase since 2001 (Table 3).  

More on TSI 

            Note: TSI numbers for July 2006 (Total, Freight, and Passenger) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The July TSI is 111.3, revised from the 111.5 reported in the December release. The July Freight TSI is 110.7, revised from 111.7. The July Passenger TSI is 112.1, revised from 110.2. The TSI for August, September, October and November are preliminary. 

TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months’ index numbers considered preliminary.  Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI.  All other revisions are held until an annual comprehensive revision of the TSI which will be released at the end of the calendar year. More information about the revision policy and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.

 

Table 1: Transportation Services Index Since May 2006
Percent Change by Month
(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

	TSI		Freight		Passenger
	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change	Index	Pct. Change
May	112.1	1.5	111.9	2.1	112.2	0.5
June	111.8	-0.3	111.6	-0.3	111.7	-0.4
JulyR	111.3	-0.4	110.7	-0.8	112.1	0.3
AugustP	108.7	-2.3	108.1	-2.4	108.8	-2.9
SeptemberP	110.3	1.5	109.5	1.3	110.7	1.7
OctoberP	110.3	0.0	109.1	-0.4	111.3	0.6
NovemberP	109.1	-1.0	107.6	-1.4	111.0	-0.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding. 

Table 2: Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percent change from previous month

	2003 % Growth	2004 % Growth	2005 % Growth	2006 % Growth
January	-1.0	-1.4	1.5	0.3
February	-1.9	2.8	-1.4	-1.3
March	0.9	0.7	1.5	1.3
April	-0.5	0.7	0.0	-0.3
May	-0.2	-0.4	0.4	1.5
June	1.0	1.0	-0.5	-0.3
July	1.3	-0.2	-0.1	(R) -0.4
August	-0.3	-0.4	-0.1	(P) -2.3
September	1.1	0.5	-0.3	(P) 1.5
October	0.7	0.1	-0.9	(P) -0.0
November	-0.1	0.9	1.6	(P) -1.0
December	2.3	-0.3	-0.9

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

 

Table 3: Transportation Services Index Year-to-Date Change, 1997-2006
Percent change from December of previous year
December to November

Year	TSI	Freight	Passenger
1997	6.7	8.2	3.5
1998	3.8	4.0	3.6
1999	5.3	4.5	7.0
2000	-2.1	-5.9	7.5
2001	-4.0	-0.1	-12.8
2002	6.8	6.8	7.0
2003	0.9	0.6	1.7
2004	4.3	3.3	6.6
2005	1.4	0.8	2.9
2006P	-1.2	-3.0	1.4

 SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

 

Table 4: Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the November TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
1997	94.3	6.8
1998	98.6	4.5
1999	102.8	4.3
2000	99.9	-2.8
2001	94.7	-5.3
2002	101.5	7.2
2003	103.4	1.9
2004	110.3	6.7
2005	111.5	1.1
2006P	109.1	-2.1

 SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

Table 5: Transportation Services Index from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2006 (November to November)

Percent change to November 2006	Since November           . . .	Duration in years
-2.1	2005	1
-1.1	2004	2
5.6	2003	3
7.6	2002	4
15.3	2001	5
9.2	2000	6
6.1	1999	7
10.7	1998	8
15.7	1997	9

 SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Note:  The percent changes to November 2006 are all preliminary.

 

Table 6: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percent change from previous month

	2003 % Growth	2004 % Growth	2005 % Growth	2006 % Growth
January	-1.1	-1.6	1.4	0.2
February	-1.4	2.6	-1.2	-1.3
March	1.2	0.9	1.0	0.9
April	0.7	0.6	0.0	-0.9
May	-1.2	-0.3	0.2	2.1
June	0.8	0.8	-0.5	-0.3
July	0.5	-0.5	-0.5	(R) -0.8
August	-0.1	-0.6	0.4	(P) -2.4
September	0.6	0.5	-1.3	(P) 1.3
October	1.3	-0.5	-0.6	(P) -0.4
November	-0.8	1.3	2.0	(P) -1.4
December	2.9	-0.4	-1.1

 SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

 

Table 7: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the November Freight TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	Freight TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
1997	96.3	7.5
1998	101.0	4.9
1999	104.3	3.3
2000	98.9	-5.2
2001	97.7	-1.3
2002	103.8	6.3
2003	105.1	1.2
2004	111.7	6.3
2005	112.1	0.4
2006P	107.6	-4.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

Table 8: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percent change from previous month

	2003 % Growth	2004 % Growth	2005 % Growth	2006 % Growth
January	-0.8	-1.1	1.5	0.6
February	-3.1	3.4	-2.0	-1.3
March	0.2	0.1	2.9	2.1
April	-3.7	0.8	-0.1	0.5
May	2.3	-0.7	0.8	0.5
June	1.5	1.6	-0.5	-0.4
July	3.4	0.5	0.9	(R) 0.3
August	-0.6	0.1	-1.3	(P) -2.9
September	2.2	0.5	2.3	(P) 1.7
October	-0.7	1.6	-1.9	(P) 0.6
November	1.3	-0.2	0.4	(P) -0.3
December	1.1	-0.2	-0.4

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

 

Table 9: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the November Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	Passenger TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
1997	89.8	5.4
1998	93.1	3.7
1999	99.1	6.5
2000	102.2	3.1
2001	87.5	-14.3
2002	96.0	9.6
2003	99.3	3.4
2004	107.0	7.8
2005	109.9	2.7
2006P	111.0	1.1

 SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.