WORKING HYPOTHESES
- Numerical modelers can learn to incorporate more operational relevance
in their research efforts if they work closely with forecasters in an experimental
forecasting exercise.
- Operational forecasters can make more skillful interpretations of numerical
model output if they work with numerical modelers in an experimental forecasting
exercise.
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
- Research perspective: To develop methods to assess subjective impressions
of model forecast skill in a quantitative manner for comparison with current
objective verification metrics.
- Operational perspective: To investigate whether mesoscale numerical modelers
can have a positive impact on forecasts of convective initiation and evolution
by providing expert interpretation of mesoscale model output during the forecast
preparation process.
RESULTS
- Panels of experts were assembled to perform subjective assessments of both
operational and experimental forecast models. Results were shared with NCEP
model developers to provide unique insight into model performance in the
context of the specialized responsibilities of SPC forecasters.
- Ensemble forecasting techniques were introduced to SPC forecasters.
- Modeling experts were judged to have a positive impact in the forecast-preparation
process by assisting in forecaster interpretation of model output, motivating
these follow-up measures:
PAYOFF
- NSSL modeling experts were invited to lecture on convective parameterization
during formal SPC forecaster training exercises.
- Convective parameterization algorithms from operational and experimental
versions of the Eta model were extracted and converted into 1-D diagnostic
routines, which were incorporated into operational SPC sounding diagnostic
software.
RELATED PUBLICATIONS
Baldwin, M. E., S. Lakshmivarahan, and J. S. Kain, 2002: Development of an "events-oriented" approach
to forecast verification. Preprints, 15th Conference on Numerical Weather
Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 210-213.
Baldwin, M. E., and M. S. Wandishin, 2002: Determining the resolved spatial
scales of Eta model precipitation forecasts. Preprints, 15th Conference
on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
85-88.
Bukovsky, M. S., P. R. Janish, J. S. Kain, and M. E. Baldwin, 2002: Evaluation
of Eta model forecasts of mesoscale convective systems. Preprints, 15th
Conference on Numerical Weather Predictio, San Antonio, TX, Amer.
Meteor. Soc., J121-J124.
Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, and S. J. Weiss, P. R. Janish, J. A. Hart, and
A. Just, 2002: Grassroots science and technology transfer in a collaborative
research/operational environment. Preprints, 15th Conference on Numerical
Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J1-J6.
Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, and S. J. Weiss, P. R. Janish, M. P. Kay, and
G. Carbin, 2003: Subjective verification of numerical models as a component
of a broader interaction between research and operations. Wea. Forecasting, 18,
847-860.
Kain, J. S., P. R. Janish, S. J. Weiss, M. E. Baldwin, R. S. Schneider, and
H. E. Brooks, 2003: Collaboration between forecasters and research scientists
at the NSSL and SPC: The Spring Program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84,
1797-1806.
2001 SPC/NSSL Spring
Experiment OPERATIONS
Photo Gallery
SUMMARIES of previous SPC/NSSL Spring Experiments:
2007200520042003200220012000
NSSL Briefings newsletter
article about the 2001
SPC/NSSL Spring Program
NOAA Research Spotlight feature article