UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Fort Worth, Texas

March 2000

SOUTHERN TOPICS

DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN REGION. As we approach the early spring months, drought conditions continue to increase over parts of the Southern Region. Based on evaluations by all Southern Region MICs, should normal spring rains fail to materialize, approximately 50 to 75 percent of the region could be experiencing severe drought conditions this summer. Presently, severe drought conditions exist across the southwest and central parts of Texas, and into New Mexico where the mountain snow pack is almost non-existent. In some parts of Texas lakes are below 50 percent capacity. State and local government leaders in both states are concerned over the potential drought impact. Dry conditions also prevail through the central part of the region and Florida is bracing for another active fire weather season. With the Climate Prediction Center predicting a dry late winter and spring, this is our opportunity to provide additional help to our partners and customers.

A number of Southern Region WFOs and RFCs already are providing critical weather and water information to state and local governments, as well as to the media. During these type situations, the most frequently asked questions are: How long have the dry conditions prevailed? How does this dry spell compare to previous episodes, i.e., what is the repeat period? How bad is the drought? And most important, when will it end? As the drought worsens, service and products from the local offices will increase in importance.

NATIONAL CLINE AWARDS. Congratulations to the following Southern Region individuals who are recipients of the National NWS Isaac M. Cline Awards, recognizing their significant contributions in support of the core NWS mission in the areas indicated.

Hydrology: Brian M. LaMarre, WFO Corpus Christi.

For outstanding hydrological forecasting during the devastating and unprecedented record flood which affected south Texas on October 17-22, 1998.

Leadership: Jose M. Garcia, NWSO Amarillo.

For providing valuable leadership to NWSO Amarillo and various community organizations, including the American Red Cross and the United Way.

Program Management and Administration: John Duxbury and Thomas Grayson (SRH/SOD), and Glen Heaton (SRH/ADMIN); members of the NWS Regional Non-Labor Study Team.

For successfully completing the NWS Regional Non-Labor Study Report to Congress. The team's report, findings and recommendations resulted in improvements in NWS management practices. (Other team members were Victoria Alexander (CRH), Violet Foster (ERH), Peter Jiron (PRH), Herschel Knowles (ARH), John Potts (NWSH/CFO), John Van Kuren (NWSH/OSO) and Fortune Vilcko (ERH).

WEB SITES. Transition of all Southern Region Web sites to the regional server is essentially complete and I appreciate the efforts on the part of all offices to reach this goal. Our next step is to implement the UUNET server. Meanwhile offices continue to receive kudos for their use of Web sites to further our mission. For example MIC Shirley Matejka is justifiably proud of the following compliment received from one of NWSO San Angelo's Web site users:

The redesigned site really looks (and works) great! You guys do a really good job for us rurals now, and with the Richland Springs NOAA radio site we feel we can get adequate warning in most instances. Only a few years ago we had nothing at all out here! Just in case, we put in a storm cellar and now we can get enough warning to get into the thing. Thanks for all you are doing and give our warm regards to the whole crew.

We can't add anything to that except Great Job, Shirley - and crew.

NWS PARTICIPATION IN TEXAS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE. I delivered a presentation on Texas Drought and Fire Weather Update to a general session of the Texas Emergency Management Conference held in Austin on February 20-23. Several other Southern Region personnel conducted workshops on Doppler Radar Precipitation Estimates (Greg Story, WGRFC), Tornadoes and Survivability (WCM Jim Stefkovich, NWSFO Fort Worth), Hurricanes and Inland Winds (MIC Bill Read, NWSO Houston), and Fire Weather and Long Range Outlooks (Bernard Meisner, SSD). WCMs from most other Texas offices and Gary Woodall, regional WCM in MSD, also participated in the conference. I appreciate the efforts of all involved, and it is noteworthy that several EM participants requested copies of materials we used so they could follow-up with their staffs.

AMS AWARD AND FELLOW NOMINATIONS. Each year the American Meteorological Society bestows awards in several categories appropriate for our employees and our partners in the media and public service areas. Some of the awards recognize exceptional specific achievement, and others relate to long-term service and accomplishments. In addition to awards, the AMS recognizes outstanding members by election to the grade of Fellow. We have many who are deserving of these awards and recognition, and in fact the Southern Region's record of successful nominations is excellent. Full details were provided by mail to all offices. I am requesting all nominations be submitted through SRH so we can provide additional endorsements. Note we must receive those nominations by April 14.

ESA, RMS, FET CONFERENCE. I met with the electronics systems analysts, regional maintenance specialists, and facilities engineering technicians during their regional meeting in San Antonio. The several days I spent in discussion gave me the opportunity to better understand the challenges and concerns of the Southern Region electronics and facilities staff. Our systems/engineering staff are essential to the NWS mission and they had many suggestions as to how we can improve the systems, communications, and field operations. SOD Chief Tom Grayson and other SRH staff at the meeting took numerous notes and action items that we will be addressing. I want to thank all those who took time to raise issues during the meeting.

TRAINING TOMORROW'S LEADERS. All employees were recently emailed an announcement from NWS Director Jack Kelly describing a new NWS Senior Leadership Potential Program (SLPP). This program is designed to provide the NWS with a cadre of employees with knowledge and essential leadership skills. The goal of this 12-month program is to equip our employees with the tools needed to lead in the 21st century. A summary of the program and an application form can be found on the Internet at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oso/sllpann.htm.

AWIPS

With this issue of Southern Topics we will end this special section devoted solely to AWIPS. Our intent for the past few years has been to use this section to highlight developments related to this critical final part of the NWS modernization. Now that the commissioning process is underway, and AWIPS has become the operational tool for carrying out our mission, we will keep readers informed of AWIPS developments and related information along with other systems in SOD's section of Topics. Congratulations to all who played instrumental roles in helping us reach this milestone.

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES DIVISION

FLASH GOES PUBLIC. The Florida Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) held a very successful press conference on February 21 in Tallahassee. This was used to kickoff a campaign for statewide billboards, public service announcements (PSAs), and the FLASH Web site. One of the PSAs promotes NOAA Weather Radio. All the network affiliates and several radio stations participated. Steven Cooper (MSD) represented the NWS and provided an interview with the local CBS affiliate. Paul Duval, NWSO Tallahassee MIC, also participated in the conference. The FLASH Web site (http://www.flash.org) provides consumers with an abundance of information on how to mitigate personal and property losses. During the afternoon, Steven and several other FLASH partners joined FLASH Director, Leslie Chapman-Henderson, in a briefing for the Florida House of Representatives Insurance Committee.

BOAT SHOWS

The Houston International Boat Show. Astrohall and Astroarena were filled with boats and boaters from January 7-16. With an attendance of more than 170,000 boat enthusiasts, the setting was perfect for NWSO Houston to meet and talk to the marine community. Seventeen NWSO staff members handed out hurricane, severe weather, safe boating, and other marine information at the NWS booth. Customer feedback was positive during the event. Houston's marine forecasts were complimented frequently. A notable quote from one boater: "Your Special Marine Warning saved not only my life, but my family's as well." What more can we say? Way to go Houston!

The Rio Grande Valley Boat Show. Mercedes, Texas was the place for boaters to be from January 20-23. NWSO Brownsville maintained an NWS booth and handed out brochures to local boaters. The NWSO staff inflated an upper air balloon and attached a radiosonde and parachute. Boy did the kids love this one! A Brownsville resident won out of more than 350 other people who registered for a weather radio receiver give-away.

Miami International Boat Show. A contingent of 14 people from NWSFO Miami and the NCEP Tropical Prediction Center staffed a booth at the Miami International Boat Show. The recent transfer of offshore forecast responsibility and improvements in the coastal waters forecasts meant that the booth was a popular place during the show. WCM Jim Lushine estimates that nearly 20,000 people passed by the booth. The booth also featured a display of the NWSFO Miami home page and a videotape of the downtown Miami tornado, as well as a large number of brochures.

FIVE-DAY COASTAL MARINE FORECAST TO BE ISSUED BY NWSO TAMPA BAY. NWSO Tampa Bay's Coastal Marine Forecast will extend to five days beginning this month. Customer feedback is the driving force behind this project. The utility of such a forecast has been expressed by a number of marine customer groups.

Offices are strongly encouraged to explore new and better ways to display and disseminate marine forecasts to our customers and partners. Boaters make up a large customer base, and they depend on NWS forecasts each day for economics and safety. Southern Region WFOs forecast for more than 2600 miles of coastline, including ten of the top 15 busiest ports in the United States. Efforts such as NWS representation at boat shows, improved product utility, and improved products will continue to build our marine program and insure a promising future.

PARTNERSHIP WITH THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE. Installation of meteorological sensors on tide gauges is complete in the Carribean. NOS has installed several sensors around Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Staff from NWSFO San Juan met NOS at the tide gauge sites and coordinated the location of the new equipment. Installation begins shortly around the Florida coast then the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico coastline.

WINTER STORM/HIGH WIND VERIFICATION. The frequency of winter weather events significantly picked up in the first weeks of the new year. Although winter storms may not occur frequently in the Southern Region, compared to other regions, their impact can be no less extensive. WFOs across the region have done outstanding jobs this winter in forecasting winter storms and the often related high wind events. Below are our 1999-2000 region-wide verification statistics, based on reports received through February 24.

Winter Storm
Total Warnings 640
Verified Warnings 501
Unverified Warnings 139
FAR 0.21

Total Events 527
Warned Events 501
Unwarned Events 26
POD 0.95

Avg. Lead Time 8 hrs

High Wind
Total Warnings 32
Verified Warnings 28
Unverified Warnings 4
FAR 0.13

Total Events 28
Warned Events 28
Unwarned Events 0
POD 1.00

Avg. Lead Time 2 hrs

SEVERE WEATHER PREPAREDNESS/OUTREACH. Southern Region offices are vigorously conducting their severe weather education and preparedness campaigns. Below are a few of the more significant accomplishments.

The staff of NWSFO Norman posted to their Web site an excellent presentation discussing the dangers of overpasses when used as tornado shelters. Many of their observations are based on lessons learned from the May 3, 1999 tornado outbreak. Several WCMs from across the region have utilized this material in their spotter training sessions, tornado safety presentations, and in media interviews. The URL of this study is http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun.

NWSFO Fort Worth/Dallas WCM Jim Stefkovich reviewed severe weather and flash flood safety rules with Willamette Industries of Dallas. Willamette produces paper grocery bags for many store chains in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arkansas and Louisiana. The company plans to print safety rules on all their bags throughout the spring. Thus, several hundred thousand people will see (and hopefully retain) our messages regarding severe weather safety.

NWSFO Miami WCM Jim Lushine, forecaster Tom Warner, and Collier County emergency manager Gary Arnold participated in a unique demonstration at a mobile home park in Naples, Florida. A resident of the park (who also is a SKYWARN spotter) connected an NWR SAME receiver to a siren on the roof of the park's clubhouse. The system is programmed to sound the siren whenever the SAME receiver is activated for a warning in the county. Approximately 100 residents attended the demonstration, and three local TV stations covered the event.

We at SRH have been highly impressed with the quality of the annual severe weather safety brochures produced by our offices, often in cooperation with state emergency management agencies. The cooperation has resulted in a truly professional-appearing set of brochures. While the overall safety message is the same, the "packaging" has improved markedly over what we produced just a few years ago. This improved appearance will undoubtedly encourage people to read through the brochures and perhaps learn some valuable safety tips. Nice work, everyone.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION AND OUTREACH. Emergency managers are among our most important partners and customers. From providing storm spotter training to assisting with dissemination mechanisms, Southern Region offices continue to provide excellent services to the EMs in their areas. Here are a few highlights.

NWSO San Angelo hosted two three-hour workshops for emergency managers. Eighteen members of emergency management agencies, including two county judges, attended the workshops. WCM Buddy McIntyre and SOO Greg Jackson conducted the events, which were based on the NWS/FEMA Hazardous Weather Preparedness Course. The highlight of the workshop was a tabletop exercise for a Memorial Day severe weather event in the CWA. This scenario provided the attendees an opportunity to determine how they would respond to a severe weather event while Memorial Day festivities were in progress.

NWSFO Norman WCM Jim Purpura participated in a kickoff program for "Operation Warn," a cooperative program designed to make 100,000 specially-priced NOAA Weather Radios available in the Oklahoma City metro area by the end of 2002. Participating agencies include the Oklahoma City and State of Oklahoma Emergency Management agencies, and corporate sponsors are the Midland Radio Corporation and Wal-Mart. Jim reports that the early stages of the project have gone extremely well. Stores are typically selling out their shipments of 400 radios in less than a week, and additional Wal-Mart stores in the area are joining the project as well.

NWSFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge WCM Frank Revitte participated in the Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Task Force meeting. Frank joined 50 representatives from the Louisiana Office of Emergency Preparedness, Department of Transportation, Red Cross, and other concerned agencies. Topics discussed included the New Orleans area evacuation plan, a method for communicating damage reports to the state EOC, and the distribution of resources during a hurricane threat.

Program managers report that testing of the 9600-baud VHF radio rebroadcast of the EMWIN data stream is ongoing in the Houston area. The Harris County Appraisal District, with extensive experience in EMWIN rebroadcasts, is the lead agency for the test. If the test is successful, the lessons learned will be applied to a national expansion and use of the NWS radio rebroadcast frequencies.

MEDIA/PUBLIC/EXTERNAL CUSTOMER SUPPORT. Following are some noteworthy activities and events from across the Region.

WFO Corpus Christi WCM Terry Huber hosted an in-depth interview for KIII TV on South Texas climate. Terry described La Niña and the impacts on the area during La Niña episodes. He explained the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the possible link between the PDO phase and enhanced/more frequent La Niña episodes.

The staff of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio hosted Congressman Lamar Smith and several of his staff members. The visit was also covered by an area newspaper. WCM Larry Eblen reports the visit was very positive and cordial, and the Congressman was impressed with the operations at the office. MIC Al Dreumont welcomed the group with some opening remarks, then Larry provided a briefing on NWS modernization. Larry also provided information on NWR expansion, spotter training and educational outreach activities. The visit concluded with a hands-on demonstration of AWIPS and its capabilities.

NWSFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge forecasters Dana Griffin and Suzanne Van Cooten staffed an NWS booth at the Boyet Junior High School Science Fair. Over 100 students participated in the event. The NWS display featured meteorological instruments (old and new), hazardous weather brochures, NOAA Weather Radios, and hurricane tracking charts. Dana and Suzanne answered numerous questions from the participants and their parents throughout the event.

PHONE COUNT. Lake Charles was left off last month's phone count log from Weatherline. Their total for January was 32,305 and for 1999 they received 277,331 calls.

EMERGENCY ALERT SYSTEM OPERATIONAL PLAN. New Orleans/Baton Rouge WCM Frank Revitte reports receiving the signed Louisiana EAS Operational Plan. Frank believes Louisiana may be one of the last states to formalize an operational plan. Congratulations, Louisiana.

NWR EXPANSION. A cooperator NOAA Weather Radio site in Port O'Connor, Texas is now up and running. Corpus Christi will provide the programming for this 100 watt station, broadcasting on 162.475 MHZ. Initial coverage will be for Calhoun County and the nearby marine community. A pattern coverage survey is scheduled for this month.

In Summerville, Georgia, a.k.a. Taylor's Ridge, broadcasting began on February 18. Frequency interference with the Mt. Cheaha transmitter in Alabama required a change from the 162.475 to 162.450 MHZ. This is the second site funded with federal earmark money for the Georgia expansion project. Atlanta will be the programming office. Assuming no further interference problems we will have a complete coverage pattern for this site by the end of the test period.

NWR FUTURE EXPANSION. Offices have been requested to provide updated expansion information to Southern Region. Doug Crowley (MSD) is comparing the old state (1994 time frame) expansion version with a WFO evaluation of expansion needs. This will be used to update the national database, in the hope NWR expansion funds will be available for FY2001 and afterward.

CRS COMMISSIONING REPORTS. Thanks to great effort by the field offices, 30 CRS Commissioning Reports have been reviewed, signed and forwarded to Joe Facundo at NWS Headquarters. The final original reports will be placed in the Technical Reference Library, with a copy kept at the SRH.

NATIONAL CWSU CONFERENCE.A national CWSU conference was held at the NWS Training Center last month. It was organized and hosted by the Central Region and included representatives from the NWS, FSL, COMET, the FAA, and Northwest Airlines. Southern Region was represented by the Regional Director, Jud Ladd (SRH Regional Aviation Meteorologist) and our seven CWSU MICs. By all accounts, the conference was a major success. It was upbeat even considering the RTA replacement issue. Such meetings are important to us, since being the most weather-active region also means significant impacts on the aviation community. As we move into spring and the almost daily occurrence of significant weather somewhere in the region, routine aviation traffic will likely experience disruptions. The CWSU meteorologists deal directly with their customers everyday. It is always interesting to observe operations at a CWSU and FAA Air Route Traffic Control Center when weather impacts their area and perhaps hundreds of airplanes must be diverted, occasionally to alternate airports. It is especially during these times that CWSU staff receive immediate customer/partner gratification or dissatisfaction on our aviation forecasts and services.

NEWS FROM THE CENTER WEATHER SERVICE UNITS. The following is a report of recent noteworthy activities at SR CWSUs.

CWSU Fort Worth. Preparation for the WARP 1 OT&E continues. Testing is scheduled to begin in May with the system going into operation in June. The CWSU staff will be significantly involved in the system testing and implementation.

Tom Hicks, MIC, traveled to Lubbock in mid-February to discuss CWSU operations with the WFO staff. Tom presented two sessions and received a number of very positive comments regarding the informative content of his presentation. The staff at the WFO believe that Tom's visit will assist the two offices in achieving improved coordination.

CWSU Houston. The Houston ARTCC has been chosen as a test site for the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) production model. The CWSU will have access to a workstation during testing. The initial meetings regarding the test are scheduled for this month.

CWSU Memphis. MIC Tom Amis continues his 90-day detail to NWS Headquarters. Tom is being tasked with preparing and submitting the NWS consolidated response to the FAA Traffic Management Unit needs document. He recently completed a first draft which is currently under review.

NWSFO ALBUQUERQUE HOST GUEST SPEAKER AT STAFF MEETING. In a recent staff meeting at NWSFO Albuquerque, Southwest Airlines pilot Alain Kamerer visited to discuss how pilots receive weather information and updates. He also fielded a number of questions from the staff. Overall, Mr. Kamerer is quite satisfied with NWS aviation products and services. One item during the discussions was a real eye-opener to the forecast staff. Mr. Kamerer indicated Southwest Airlines averages one injury (primarily to flight attendants) every day from unexpected turbulence. We tend to have so little face-to-face contact with pilots these days that inviting someone to the office for a staff meeting, for example, can have very beneficial results.

NWSO MIDLAND VISITS NATIONAL PARK. Ray Fagen, MIC NWSO Midland, recently visited the Guadalupe Mountains National Park as part of the ceremony to install a new park superintendent. His visit proved timely because the area is experiencing a significant drought with high fire danger. The NWSO issues a daily fire weather forecast for the park and, as requested, prepares spot weather forecasts. Ray received a letter from the new superintendent thanking him for visiting.

FIRE WEATHER FORECAST COURSE. Four Southern Region forecasters will be participating this month in the Fire Weather Forecasters Course at the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) in Boise, Idaho. The week following the course has been set aside for Incident Meteorologist (IMET) recertification training at NIFC. Southern Region plans to have its full complement of IMETs (five) attend this training.

FIRE WEATHER FORMAT IMPLEMENTATION. Wednesday, April 5 is the date for implementation of the regional standardized fire weather format. On that date, all WFOs in the region will begin using this format for their routine Fire Weather Forecasts (FWFs). To assist the offices, Charlie Paxton and John McMichael from Tampa Bay, and David Hotz from Morristown have developed an automated formatting software program (FIRE). At present, it is a PC-based program, but the developers will begin work this month to make the coding AWIPS-compatible.

SAN ANGELO FIRE WEATHER PROGRAM HITS THE BIG TIME. The San Angelo Standard Times recently published an article about wildfires in southwest Texas. In the course of preparing the article, the newspaper staff writer spoke at length with Phil Baker, fire weather program leader, regarding NWS fire weather services, including Red Flag Warnings. Phil took the opportunity to publicize the new program at San Angelo. The article made the front page of the paper and led to another interview by a local FM radio station of one of the San Angelo forecasters. Word is getting out.

HYDROLOGIC SERVICES DIVISION

NWS FLASH FLOOD CONFERENCE. Southern Region Headquarters will be hosting an NWS Flash Flood Conference, May 10-12, in Atlanta. The theme for the conference is Flash Floods: It's Not a Drive-Thru. The conference will serve as a forum to share, develop and discuss methods for minimizing flash flood fatalities. Each SR office is expected to send one representative to the conference. The format will allow for active participation by NWS, emergency management, academia, media, drivers education and safety organizations, and others involved in the flash flood preparedness and warning process. Information about the conference, including the agenda and registration information has been sent to all offices, see also the attachment to this issue of Topics.