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Decision-Support Resources Development and Related Research on Human Contributions and Responses
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Updated 27 November 2007
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Decision-Support Resources Development & Related Research on Human Contributions and Responses |
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Decision-Support Resources Development & Related Research on Human Contributions and ResponsesNear-Term Plans Archived News Postings [June 2000 - July 2005] CCSP / USGCRP Human Contributions and Responses Working Group Members
Past Accomplishments:
Climate Change Science Program. FY 2008 Scientific Research Budget by USGCRP Research Element |
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New Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Effort Focused on Drought.5
This activity will address Question 9.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan, and will support Decision-Support Objective 2.1. Development of Modeling Tools to Support Water and Watershed Management.Climate change presents a range of risks and opportunities to water managers. To minimize risk and take advantage of opportunities, tools are necessary to promote adaptive and forward-looking environmental management by decisionmakers at all levels. In 2007, a new climate assessment capability was developed within the Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Non-point Sources (BASINS) watershed modeling system. The new tool facilitates assessment of the influence of climate variability and change on water quantity and quality and provides a capacity to evaluate adaptation strategies that increase the resilience of water systems to changes in climate. A case study using the new BASINS system is underway to assess the sensitivity of hydrologic and water quality endpoints to climate change in the Monocacy River watershed, a tributary to the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay. An online decision support capability with the USDA ARS Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) soil erosion model also is under development. New climate change assessment capabilities within WEPP will enable land managers to develop best management practices to lessen the impacts of climate variability and change on sediment loading from agricultural land to streams. In FY 2008, the need for developing similar climate assessment capabilities for models applicable to urban drainage and design will be determined. This activity will address Questions 9.2 and 9.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan, and will support Decision-Support Objectives 1.2 and 2.1. Decision Assessment in the Gulf Coast and Chesapeake Bay Regions.
This activity will address Question 9.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan, and will support Decision-Support Objectives 2.1 and 3.2. Integrated Evaluation of Climate Change, Mitigation, Bioenergy, and Land Use.Biofuels represent a potentially important source of energy that, depending on how they are produced, could reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by replacing fossil fuels. However, greatly expanded use of biofuels would put pressure on food and forestry prices and could lead to conversion of land and release of carbon from soils and vegetation. At the same time, changes in climate, CO2 levels, and concentrations of other pollutants such as ozone will affect the productivity of crops, pasture, and forestland. The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change will complete linkage of a multi-sector, multi-region general equilibrium model of the world economy with a terrestrial ecosystem model that simulates biogeochemical processes of land systems at a 0.5° latitude-longitude grid level. The linkage will allow examination of the effects on greenhouse gas cycles of disturbances associated with the conversion of unmanaged forest and grassland to crop, pasture, or bioenergy production. Also, because it will be fully integrated with economic projections, the linked system will provide the ability to evaluate the feedbacks of changing environmental conditions on agricultural productivity, the resultant effects on the global and regional economy, consequent impacts on land use, and the further effects of land-use change on biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks on atmospheric composition and climate. This activity will address Question 9.1 of the CCSP Strategic Plan, and will support Decision-Support Objective 3.1. Integrated Impacts on and Adaptation to Climate Change of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Water Resources, and Agriculture.
This activity will address Question 9.2 of the CCSP Strategic Plan, and will support Decision-Support Objectives 2.1 and 3.1. Scale and Timing of Climate Forcing.General circulation models, including those with coupled oceans and integrated terrestrial carbon cycles and atmospheric chemistry models, require time-dependent trajectories of greenhouse gases, chemically active gases, and aerosols to be run in forecast mode. In FY 2008, researchers will build on work reported in CCSP's SAP 2.1a to develop time-dependent trajectories that can be used by climate and atmospheric chemistry models. This activity will support Decision-Support Objectives 1.2 and 3.1. Upcoming Report from the Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change.CHDGC is expected to release Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decision Support in FY 2009. This report will elaborate a framework for organizing and evaluating decision-support activities for CCSP, with special attention to sectors and issues of concern to the sponsors. It will also consider needs for science in support of decisions related to natural disasters and natural extreme events associated with climate change, such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes. To do this, the study panel will consider the range of relevant decisions, decisionmakers, decision contexts, spatial and temporal frames, and decision-support objectives, and current and potential strategies for organizing decision-support efforts to meet these objectives—taking into account the fact that, in some sectors, the desired outcomes of decision-support activities may not be clear in advance. This activity will address Question 9.3 of the CCSP Strategic Plan, and will support Decision-Support Objectives 1.1 and 3.2.
References1) See uaf.edu/accap.2) Rosen, R., A. Chu, J.J. Szykman, R. DeYoung, J.A. Al-Saadi, A. Kaduwela, and C. Bohnenkamp, 2006: Application of satellite data for three-dimensional monitoring of PM2.5 formation and transport in San Joaquin Valley, California. In: Remote Sensing of Aerosol and Chemical Gases, Model Simulation/Assimilation, and Applications to Air Quality [Chu, A., J. Szykman, and S. Kondragunta (eds.)]. Proceedings of SPIE - International Society of Optical Engineering, 6299, doi:10.1117/12.681649. 3) See weather.gov/climate/l3mto.php. 4) Hadley, S., D.J. Erickson III, J. Hernandez, C. Broniak, and T.J. Blasing, 2006: Responses of energy use to climate change: A climate modeling study. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L17701, doi:10.1029/2006GL026131. 5) See climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa.
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Under the auspices of the Coping with Drought through Research and Regional Partnerships effort described in the FY 2007 edition of Our Changing Planet, a new activity will be initiated in a region not currently covered by the RISA program. This new RISA activity will have drought impacts research and stakeholder work as a central theme and will provide an avenue within the region chosen for interagency work focused on climate impacts. 
Several pilot studies in the Gulf Coast region and the Chesapeake Bay were initiated to test different approaches to assessing the flow and use of climate change science information in decisionmaking, the factors and institutions that affect its use, and the types and
characteristics of decisions most sensitive to climate change and most in need of
additional re-evaluation and research in light of projected changes. Plans are to evaluate the results of these pilot studies to determine the applicability of a decision assessment approach to decisions related to water quality, aquatic ecosystems, and air quality. 
Terrestrial ecosystems, water resources, and agriculture represent important systems and pathways through which climate change could be experienced. Integrated models of drivers and systems response have generally lagged progress on the discrete research topics and associated models. In FY 2008, the
foundations will be laid for incorporating these features into an integrated model in a way that reflects the state-of-the-art in relevant disciplinary research. Scoping meetings will be conducted to explore the state-of-the-art, identify methods for incorporation, and deliver a research plan. In addition, first steps will be taken to implement that plan, including a preliminary evaluation of climate impacts on water resources with implications for agricultural impacts and adaptation. 
