| Base-Case Assumptions | Values Used in Outcomes Table | Source, Year (Reference) |
|---|---|---|
| Prevalence of HIV infection | Average-risk: 0.3% High-risk: 5%-15% |
CDC, 20033 McQuillan, et al., 1997271 Valleroy, et al., 2000272 Holmberg, 1996273 |
| Yield of partner notification (newly diagnosed HIV infection per index patient) | 0.08-0.23 | Macke and Maher, 1999274 CDC, 2003275 |
| Accuracy of standard testing | >99% | Weber, et al., 1995276 McAlpine, et al., 1994 277 CDC, 199045 CDC, 198846 |
| Proportion of HIV-positive patients who receive test results | 79%-93% | Erickson, et al., 199030 Hightow, et al., 2003120 CDC, 200440 Molitor, et al., 1999119 |
| Proportion of patients who would qualify for treatment (assuming only patients with CD4 count < 0.200 × 109 cells/L treated) | 12%-43% | Samet, et al., 2001112 Katz, et al., 1992113 Luby, et al., 1994114 Hutchinson, et al., 1991115 Klein, et al., 200326 |
| Proportion of patients qualifying for antiretroviral therapy who would receive it | 53%-85% | Stall, et al., 2001129 Cunningham, et al., 2000130 Kaplan, et al., 1999131 McNaghten, et al., 2003132 |
| 3-y risk for clinical progression or death in untreated patients with CD4 count < 0.200 × 109 cells/L | 86% (95% CI, 77%-93%) | Mellors, et al., 19977 |
| Relative risk for clinical progression or death with HAART compared to no treatment | 0.35 (95% CI, 0.25-0.47) | Calculated from Jordan, et al., 2002133 |
| Background rate of myocardial infarction (cases per 3 person-years) | 0.00158 (95% CI, 0.000508-0.00487) | Calculated from Friis-Moller, 2003227 |
| Relative risk for myocardial infarction with HAART after 2-4 y compared to no treatment | 7.73 (95% CI, 2.42-24.71) | Calculated from Friis-Moller, 2003227 |
| Background rate of cardio- or cerebrovascular (myocardial infarction, stroke, or invasive cardiovascular procedure) events (cases per 3 person-years) | 0.0037 (95% CI, 0.0018-0.00770) | Calculated from Writing Group of the DAD Study, 2004229 |
| Relative risk for cardiovascular or cerebrovascular events with HAART after 2-4 y compared to no treatment | 5.00 (95% CI, 2.31-10.82) | Calculated from Writing Group of the DAD Study, 2004229 |
| Relative risk for spread of disease | Unable to estimate |
aNotes: CDC = Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; DAD = Data collection of Adverse events of anti-HIV Drugs; HAART = highly active antiretroviral therapy.