NOUS41 KWBC 171800 PNSWSH PUBLIC INFO. STATEMENT...TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE 03-43 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC 200 PM EST FRI OCT 17 2003 TO FAMILY SERVICE /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS... NOAAPORT SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...AND NWS EMPLOYEES FROM J. PAUL DALLAVALLE CHIEF...STATISTICAL MODELING BRANCH METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY /MDL/ OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY /OST/ SUBJECT ENHANCEMENTS TO GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM /GFS/ MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS /MOS/ GUIDANCE INCLUDING ADDITION OF SNOWFALL AMOUNT GUIDANCE...EFFECTIVE DECEMBER 16 2003 SEE ALSO TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE 03-44...TRANSMITTED OCTOBER 17 2003...FOR ADDITIONAL MOS CHANGES BEING IMPLEMENTED DECEMBER 16 2003 NOTE...THE FOLLOWING CHANGES HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON NOAA WEATHER WIRE SUBSCRIBERS ATTENTION USERS OF THE MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS /MOS/ GUIDANCE... ON TUESDAY...DECEMBER 16 2003...WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ MODEL CYCLE...THE NWS WILL MAKE CHANGES TO THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM /GFS/-BASED MOS GUIDANCE. CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO TRANSITION FROM SEPARATE AVN- AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST /MRF/-BASED MOS SYSTEMS TO A UNIFIED GFS-BASED MOS SYSTEM WITH SHORT- AND EXTENDED-RANGE PRODUCTS. THE SHORT-RANGE GFS MOS WILL BE ISSUED AT ALL FOUR CYCLES. THE EXTENDED-RANGE GFS MOS WILL BE ISSUED ONLY AT THE 0000 UTC CYCLE. ALL PRODUCTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORMAT. AS PART OF THESE CHANGES...THE SHORT-RANGE GFS MOS GUIDANCE WILL BE DISSEMINATED APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES LATER THAN THE CURRENT DISSEMINATION TIMES. IN ADDITION... SNOWFALL AMOUNT GUIDANCE WILL BE ADDED TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS ISSUED UNDER THE COMMUNICATION HEADINGS LISTED IN TABLE 1. CHANGES TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS DUE TO THE TRANSITION TO A UNIFIED GFS MOS WILL CONSIST OF A CHANGE TO THE FIRST LINE OF THE MAV/MEX MOS AND CANADIAN MOS TEXT PRODUCTS. REFERENCES TO AVN MOS WILL BE CHANGED TO GFS MOS AND REFERENCES TO MRF MOS CHANGED TO GFSX MOS. IN ADDITION... ALL FORECASTS FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE...SPOT TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION AMOUNT...AND PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR 6 THROUGH 72 HOURS WILL NOW BE IDENTICAL IN THE SHORT-RANGE AND EXTENDED-RANGE TEXT PRODUCTS. ON THE SAME EFFECTIVE DATE...CATEGORICAL FORECASTS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNT WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE GFS MOS TEXT PRODUCTS FOR 24-HR PERIODS ENDING AT APPROXIMATELY 36...60...84...108...AND 132 HOURS AFTER 0000 UTC 30 AND 54 HOURS AFTER 0600 UTC 24...48...AND 72 HOURS AFTER 1200 UTC AND 42 AND 66 HOURS AFTER 1800 UTC. SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECASTS WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM SEPTEMBER 1ST THROUGH MAY 31ST. THE SNOWFALL AMOUNT CATEGORIES ARE AS FOLLOWS... 0 = NO SNOW OR A TRACE EXPECTED 1 = > A TRACE TO < 2 INCHES EXPECTED 2 = 2 TO < 4 INCHES 4 = 4 TO < 6 INCHES 6 = 6 TO < 8 INCHES 8 = 8 INCHES OR MORE EXAMPLES OF BOTH GFS MOS TEXT PRODUCTS WITH THE TRANSITIONAL CHANGES AND THE SNOWFALL ADDED ARE AVAILABLE AT THE URLS LISTED BELOW /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... SHORT-RANGE GFS MOS http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/tin/gfsshort.htm EXTENDED-RANGE GFS MOS http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/tin/gfsextended.htm TABLE 1. COMMUNICATION IDENTIFIERS FOR THE ALPHANUMERIC BULLETINS OF GFS-BASED MOS GUIDANCE. THE AWIPS IDS ARE MAVXXX AND MEXXXX...WHERE THE FINAL XXX DENOTES THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION FOR WHICH THE GUIDANCE IS VALID. WMO HEADING AWIPS ID WMO HEADING AWIPS ID /SHORT RANGE/ /EXTENDED RANGE/ FOPA20 KWNO MAVPA0 FEPA20 KWNO MEXPA0 FOUS21 KWNO MAVNE1 FEUS21 KWNO MEXNE1 FOUS22 KWNO MAVSE1 FEUS22 KWNO MEXSE1 FOUS23 KWNO MAVNC1 FEUS23 KWNO MEXNC1 FOUS24 KWNO MAVSC1 FEUS24 KWNO MEXSC1 FOUS25 KWNO MAVRM1 FEUS25 KWNO MEXRM1 FOUS26 KWNO MAVWC0 FEUS26 KWNO MEXWC0 FOAK37 KWNO MAVAJK FEAK37 KWNO MEXAJK FOAK38 KWNO MAVAFC FEAK38 KWNO MEXAFC FOAK39 KWNO MAVAFG FEAK39 KWNO MEXAFG FOCN20 KWNO MAVCND FECN21 KWNO MEXCND LINKS TO ALL THE MOS PRODUCTS...ALONG WITH DESCRIPTIONS...CAN BE FOUND ONLINE AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THESE CHANGES TO THE MOS GUIDANCE SYSTEM...PLEASE CONTACT PAUL DALLAVALLE MDL/SILVER SPRING MARYLAND PHONE 301-713-0023 EXT. 135 E-MAIL PAUL.DALLAVALLE@NOAA.GOV THIS AND OTHER NWS TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICES ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notif.htm $$ NNNN