Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 905
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 155 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
FORT POLK LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF DYERSBURG
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 904. WATCH NUMBER 904 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
155 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTION OF T.D. IKE WILL IMPACT THE DELTA REGION OF AR/MS NWD INTO
THE MO BOOTHEEL AND WRN TN THROUGH DAWN. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL
REMAIN LIMITED BY WARM MID LVL TEMPS...MAGNITUDE OF LOW LVL
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND RECENT UPTURN IN STRENGTH OF SHOWERS IN
ERN AR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TORNADOES GIVEN MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER S INTO CNTRL LA...ISOLD TORNADOES AND/OR ISOLD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND MAY OCCUR ALONG RESIDUAL AXIS OF LOW
LVL CONVERGENCE...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREAT BUOYANCY BUT WEAKENING SHEAR
WILL EXIST.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 19040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 905 TORNADO AR LA MO MS TN 140655Z - 141500Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45SSE POE/FORT POLK LA/ - 35NNW DYR/DYERSBURG TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /22NNE LCH - 31NNW DYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 19040.
REPLACES WW 904..AR LA
LAT...LON 30449380 36459062 36458865 30449197
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 905 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 905
VALID 141425Z - 141500Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N LCH TO
5 ESE MLU TO 20 W GWO TO 40 S PAH.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 905 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
14/15Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2270.
..KERR..09/14/08
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 905
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-009-021-025-029-035-039-041-043-059-065-079-083-097-107-
123-141500-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES CALDWELL
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT
LA SALLE MADISON RAPIDES
RICHLAND ST. LANDRY TENSAS
WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC001-003-009-013-015-017-019-021-043-051-053-055-057-063-071-
081-083-095-097-115-117-125-139-141-145-149-155-161-163-
141500-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALCORN BENTON
CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW
CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
ITAWAMBA JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LEE LEFLORE MONROE
MONTGOMERY PONTOTOC PRENTISS
SHARKEY TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
UNION WARREN WEBSTER
YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
TNC017-023-039-053-069-071-077-079-109-113-183-141500-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER DECATUR
GIBSON HARDEMAN HARDIN
HENDERSON HENRY MCNAIRY
MADISON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 905
VALID 141335Z - 141440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N IER TO
20 W GWO TO 40 S PAH.
..CORFIDI..09/14/08
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 905
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-035-039-041-043-059-065-073-079-083-
097-107-115-123-127-141440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN
GRANT LA SALLE MADISON
OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND
ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERNON
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC001-003-009-013-015-017-019-021-043-051-053-055-057-063-071-
081-083-093-095-097-115-117-125-133-135-139-141-145-149-155-161-
163-141440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALCORN BENTON
CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW
CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
ITAWAMBA JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LEE LEFLORE MARSHALL
MONROE MONTGOMERY PONTOTOC
PRENTISS SHARKEY SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
UNION WARREN WEBSTER
YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
TNC017-023-039-047-053-069-071-077-079-109-113-183-141440-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER DECATUR
FAYETTE GIBSON HARDEMAN
HARDIN HENDERSON HENRY
MCNAIRY MADISON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 905
VALID 141135Z - 141240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2269.
..MEAD..09/14/08
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 905
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-021-031-035-037-055-075-077-093-107-111-121-123-
141240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT CLAY
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
GREENE LAWRENCE LEE
MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
$$
LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-035-039-041-043-049-059-065-067-073-
079-083-097-107-115-123-127-141240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RAPIDES RICHLAND ST. LANDRY
TENSAS VERNON WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC001-011-015-021-027-033-043-051-053-055-063-071-083-093-107-
119-125-133-135-137-143-149-151-161-163-141240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOLIVAR CARROLL
CLAIBORNE COAHOMA DESOTO
GRENADA HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LEFLORE MARSHALL PANOLA
QUITMAN SHARKEY SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
WARREN WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
YAZOO
$$
MOC069-155-141240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC033-045-047-053-075-095-097-131-157-167-141240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HAYWOOD LAKE
LAUDERDALE OBION SHELBY
TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 905
VALID 140935Z - 141040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..09/14/08
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 905
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-021-031-035-037-055-075-077-093-107-111-121-123-
141040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT CLAY
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
GREENE LAWRENCE LEE
MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
$$
LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-035-039-041-043-049-059-065-067-073-
079-083-097-107-115-123-127-141040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RAPIDES RICHLAND ST. LANDRY
TENSAS VERNON WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC001-011-015-021-027-033-043-051-053-055-063-071-083-093-107-
119-125-133-135-137-143-149-151-161-163-141040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOLIVAR CARROLL
CLAIBORNE COAHOMA DESOTO
GRENADA HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LEFLORE MARSHALL PANOLA
QUITMAN SHARKEY SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
WARREN WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
YAZOO
$$
MOC069-155-141040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC033-045-047-053-075-095-097-131-157-167-141040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HAYWOOD LAKE
LAUDERDALE OBION SHELBY
TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 905
VALID 140835Z - 140940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..09/14/08
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 905
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-021-031-035-037-055-075-077-093-107-111-121-123-
140940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT CLAY
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
GREENE LAWRENCE LEE
MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
$$
LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-035-039-041-043-049-059-065-067-073-
079-083-097-107-115-123-127-140940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA
EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RAPIDES RICHLAND ST. LANDRY
TENSAS VERNON WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC001-011-015-021-027-033-043-051-053-055-063-071-083-093-107-
119-125-133-135-137-143-149-151-161-163-140940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOLIVAR CARROLL
CLAIBORNE COAHOMA DESOTO
GRENADA HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LEFLORE MARSHALL PANOLA
QUITMAN SHARKEY SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
WARREN WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
YAZOO
$$
MOC069-155-140940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC033-045-047-053-075-095-097-131-157-167-140940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HAYWOOD LAKE
LAUDERDALE OBION SHELBY
TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.