National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Ecological Forecasting

Our goal is reliable forecasts of changes in living systems with uncertainties and estimates of error explicitly stated. Ultimately, observations and models must span spatial scales from molecular to global and also take advantage of information across time scales to hone and test the accuracy of our predictions. Ecological forecasting requires a grand scientific synthesis across the domains of physics, geology, chemistry, biology, and psychology. There will no doubt be limits to what we can forecast, but discovering these limits and their causes will only enhance our overall understanding of the ecosystems we hope to manage and preserve. The decision support systems engendered will be vital to efforts to build our economies while at the same time sustaining the natural ecosystems that provide us with the essential services we tend to take for granted such as: clean air, fresh water, fertile soils, waste removal, and biodiversity. NASA is currently involved in several international and domestic partnerships under the theme of ecological forecasting.

Image: This satellite image from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) shows the effect of the Tehuano winds on the ocean's plant life on December 9, 2003. Winds blowing southwest from the Gulf of Mexico (top center) toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec (center) churned up the water and initiated an algal bloom that is shown in the image in rainbow colors. The colors represent how much plant chlorophyll SeaWiFS detected in the surface water. Highest concentrations are dark red and lowest concentrations are blue.

Located at the junction of North and South America and characterized by significant changes in elevation, Central America is a biological crossroads with seven to eight percent of the planet's biodiversity in less than one half of one percent of its land mass. NASA is partnering with the, among others, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the World Bank, the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD), and the Water Center for the Humit Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC) to develop a Regional Visualization and Monitoring System (known as SERVIR). SERVIR is a decision support platform that will assist the seven nations of Central America (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama) in managing their extremely diverse and rich natural environments in a sustainable manner using the top-down view from space.

Image: A low-pressure system across the central Caribbean brought heavy rains to the region from May 18-25, 2004. The moist, low-level southerly winds interacted with the topography of Hispaniola to intensify the burst of rain falling on the island. This false-color map shows how much rain fell that week. Dark red shows where more than 500 mm of rain fell. (NASA image by Hal Pierce, using data courtesy TRMM Science Team)

SERVIR will host satellite imagery and other types of data and enable the generation of products for decision makers and the general public through the use of on-line mapping and visualization tools. These products will reach users through a series of information nodes located in each of the participating countries. Example uses include: the detection of wild fires and major changes in land cover with imagery from the Terra and Landsat 7 satellites, tracking rainfall and weather patterns with data from Terra, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the upcoming Global Precipitation Mission (GPM), monitoring coastal margins throughout Central America for red tides and changes in coral reefs through SeaWiFS and Landsat 7 imagery, and using models to help people understand the connection between changes in land cover and climate variation.

Other NASA activities in the field of ecological forecasting include bringing together satellite data, in situ observations, and models to: (1) support the management of marine fisheries and the protection of endangered marine mammals by NOAA, (2) assist the National Park Service in determining the impacts of changing climate and land cover on our Nation's national parks, and (3) track the changing distributions of species of concern to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.