Understanding Severe Weather Processes
Thunderstorm Complexes with Severe Surface Winds
Drs. Michael Coniglio and Harold Brooks of NSSL have collaborated with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to improve the prediction of thunderstorm complexes that produce severe surface winds. This research focuses on improving the prediction of the forward speed of these systems and where and when these systems will begin to dissipate. Statistical analyses are applied to a large data set of observations of the meteorological conditions associated with past occurrences of these systems and are used to develop probability equations for their speed and longevity. The utility of these equations, along with an index designed by Jeff Evans of SPC to alert forecasters to the potential for thunderstorm complexes that produce long-lived, widespread severe surface winds (derechos), was examined for thunderstorm systems that occurred during the summer of 2005 during the 2005 SPC Summer Program under the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT). Evaluation of the predictive tools is ongoing, but preliminary results reveal that, given the development of a thunderstorm system, the prediction of the time and location of when these systems will dissipate and the prediction of the potential for a derecho can be improved as a result of these efforts. For more information on this research and for real-time plots of these predictive fields during the late spring and summer months visit http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/mcon/public_html/mcspage.htm.
