Question

How long do you think it will take for people to live on the Moon?

This is a difficult question to answer because the issues it raises are political and economic, not scientific or technical. We had solved the most important problems of rocket propulsion and life support and had actually sent a dozen astronauts to the Moon by the 1970s. The biggest remaining concern was the effects of solar outbursts on the health of the astronauts (see James Michener's novel Space for a fictional story of what could have happened if an outburst took place while the Apollo astronauts were on the Moon). But this problem could be solved by building the lunar base underground or covering it with a layer of lunar soil. At that time, most people predicted that there would be permanent lunar colonies long before now. Carl Sagan reflects this optimism in his 1973 book Cosmic Connection, recently reprinted. But we chose not to pursue lunar bases, and the issue of a possible return to the Moon is still debated today. If we wanted, we could have a small human-occupied outpost on the Moon within a decade. This will not happen, however, until government leaders decide that this is the direction we should go with the space program.

David Morrison
NAI Senior Scientist
December 1, 2003