000
FXUS65 KLKN 161301
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
300 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE
WEAKENING TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. WEDNESDAY
WILL SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINS CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
SHORT PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH
THE SILVER STATE BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH
THE ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY DRY...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THINGS
TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN. GFS SHOWING
PWS OF ONLY AROUND .5 TO .6 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODEL
IS ALSO SHOWING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
LIS AROUND -.5 TO -1 EXCEPT CLOSER TO -2 IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTION OF NVZ 13. WOULD NOT BE VERY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT FOR A JET MAX THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER
ELKO COUNTY. GFS ESTIMATING THE CORE TO BE AROUND 60KTS. THIS
COULD VERY WELL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
STORM ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. ALSO...850 MB
WIND STREAMLINES SHOWING GOOD CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. WITH SUCH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND DRY
FUEL CONDITIONS...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LINGERING MONSOON
MOISTURE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ERN NV
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON FRIDAY WITH APPROACH OF
UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF AND MOST OTHER MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND BRING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NRN NV
LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS TAKES IT SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL CA AND SRN NV BY SATURDAY AND LINGER IT THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY NRN NV FRIDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY THEN GO
DRY THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS STORM TRACK REMAINS TO OUR NORTH.  CEC
&&

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CA COAST TODAY
WILL DRAW UP SOME MOISTURE INTO CNTRL AND ERN NV TODAY FOR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTN AND EVE...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. CEC
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON FOR ANOTHER DAY ACROSS
THE SILVER STATE. THE DRY...SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TOMORROW AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN 452...454...AND 455 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN FOR THURSDAY.
ANOTHER...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE MOISTURE AND WHILE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...THE EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY WET
STORMS FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THIS COULD BE A SEASON ENDING EVENT AS MODELS
INDICATE A SERIES OF TROUGHS FOR THE WEEK AFTER THIS LOW EJECTS...
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM
10 AM PDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH 9 PM WEDNESDAY.

$$