000
FXUS65 KLKN 172115
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
214 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS EVENING BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. &&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...PW`S WILL BE INCREASING TO ABOVE 0.60 INCHES AND
COULD BE UPWARDS OF 0.90 INCHES ACCORDING TO GFS BUT THIS SEEMS
SORT OF HIGH GIVEN MORNING EKO AND RNO SOUNDINGS. THINK THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF DRY AND WET THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL KEEP RED FLAG GOING.
WITH MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS THAN RECENTLY AND LINGERING CLOUDS
SHOULD HAVE MILDER LOWS THAN RECENTLY. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY
WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RUBIES. A
CUTOFF LOW WILL START TO MOVE ONSHORE THU NIGHT/FRI WHICH WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTH AS
THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. NORTHERN NV WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 80KT JET MOVING INTO NW NV SO KEPT IN CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
ID BORDER AND GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE NW AS COLD FRONT
MOVES IN...BUT ABOUT THE SAME OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. JMG

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTING THROUGH
NORTHERN NV FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NV DURING THIS TIME WITH THE BEST
CHANCE BEING NORTH OF I-80. WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXIT
NORTHERN NV BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. SINCE THIS TROUGH NOW
APPEARS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...EXPECTING TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER
AS WELL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH SOME 80S IN
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY.

BEGINNING SUNDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT A QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW WILL SETUP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
HAS A DIFFERENT IDEA...SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT THROUGH OVER THE REGION
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW. BECAUSE OF
ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES DID NOT WANT TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS TO MUCH AT THE
END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT DID RAISE THEM A FEW DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. IF GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN ENDS UP RIGHT THEN OUR FIRST TASTE OF FALL WILL COINCIDE
PERFECTLY WITH THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX. MCGEE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL
BE INCREASING THROUGH THIS TIME AND MORE STORMS WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION TO WET...BUT WILL KEEP RED FLAG GOING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS MUCH HIGHER THAN RECENT
DAYS. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL ALSO BE GOOD. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RUBIES THU. AS A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY...THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER ZONES 451...452 AND 454 ON FRIDAY BUT A MAJORITY OF THESE
SHOULD BE WET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE 70S BY THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. &&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM
10 AM PDT THROUGH 9 PM TODAY FOR FIRE ZONES 452...454...AND 455.

$$