000
FXUS65 KLKN 182045
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
145 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA LATE FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE DROPPING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES
THE REGION. &&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE DONE A FLIP-FLOP
ON HANDLING OF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST.
LAST FEW RUNS HAD THE UPPER LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVED ONSHORE AND
JUST SKIRTED FAR NORTHERN NV...BUT NOW THEY ARE KEEPING SYSTEM
CLOSED UNTIL LATE SAT AS IT IS CROSSING NORTHERN NV. NAM IS THE
OUTLIER NOW WITH ITS SOLUTION SIMILAR TO OLD MODEL RUNS WITH THE
OPEN WAVE. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING THROUGH A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT THE DISTURBANCES LOOK FAIRLY STRONG. KEPT
CHANCE POPS NORTH AND TAPERED OFF TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT HIGHS
FRI SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO NWRN NV
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH PLENTY OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. KEPT POPS
GOING THROUGH THE DAY SAT...ESPECIALLY NERN CWA. DID NOT
RAISE POPS MUCH SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SAT WILL ALSO BE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER NORTH AND JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER SOUTH AS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL
EXIT NORTHERN NV SATURDAY NIGHT AND HEAD FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WITH TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTING...ONLY LEFTOVER OPPORTUNITY FOR A SHOWER
WILL BE OVER FAR NE CORNER OF STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW IN
WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. BASE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CLIP NORTHERN NV SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR TWO NEAR ID/OR BORDERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL
TROUGH LOOKING REALLY MOISTURE-STARVED. IF ANYTHING...THE TROUGH
WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY TO RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK ON TUESDAY...
KEEPING THEM SIMILAR TO MONDAY`S HIGHS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE PLENTY
OF SUN THAT DAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP A FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGE (588DM HEIGHTS) OVER THE REGION BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WITH CANADIAN GEM ALSO LOOKING LIKE ITS SOLUTION IS
LEANING THAT WAY AS WELL...FELT CONFIDENT RAISING DAYTIME TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. MCGEE
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL OCCUR OVER
EASTERN NV THROUGH SUNSET...MAINLY EAST OF KELY AND KEKO. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN NV FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS BASES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 8000 FT AGL" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">AGL. SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WILL OCCUR AT
KELY AND KTPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MCGEE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SAT. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SAT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND A FEW DEGREES SOUTH. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DROP
TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE DEGREES BUT LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. JMG &&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$