000
FXUS65 KLKN 142059
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
158 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW
WARMING TREND. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE RISK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE SHORT TERM. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS KEEPING WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT ON HIGHS...
SINCE IT IS THE MIDDLE OF SEPT AND WE ARE GETTING LOWER SUN
ANGLES AND COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT MIXED LAYER WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER HIGHS. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE PUSH OF MOISTURE
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST CWA TUE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
JMG
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LONGER TERM STARTS
OUT WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
COUPLED WITH A LATE-SEASON PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD
BE NO TROUBLE GETTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW MAY START DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT THE
MAJORITY WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER THE FIRST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PASSES WEDNESDAY...A BRIEF RESPITE
OCCURS THURSDAY BEFORE A CLOSED LOW MOVES ON BY TO THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM`S ENERGY IS FOCUSED MAINLY TO THE NORTH...BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEASTERN
ELKO COUNTY. LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A QUIET ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES
BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH POTENTIALLY MOVES IN MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN DURING THE SHORT-TERM...BUT SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE VERY END OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER. RCM &&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT...AND VISIBILITIES HIGH. RCM &&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES
AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 80S WITH 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH`S WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SOME
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. &&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$