000
FXUS65 KLKN 200919
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS
INTO IDAHO. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHEAR
NEWD INTO IDAHO TODAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW MOST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY PUSHED NORTH INTO IDAHO. THIS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE FASTER NEWD MOVEMENT OF SHORT WAVE AS DEPICTED BY
THE GFS WHICH SHOWS REMAINING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MOVING OUT
OF NERN NV BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHEREAS THE NAM KEEPS SOME MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AROUND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DRY WLY FLOW BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY.  CEC

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF AND OPERATIONAL GFS
RUN FROM 00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLIPPER S/WV IN NW FLOW BRUSHING
ACROSS NRN NV LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NRN BORDER
AREA. IN ADDITION EXPECT SOME GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS ESPECIALLY
NEAR UTAH BORDER BY LATE MONDAY. SYSTEM IS WEAK OVERALL WITH MINIMAL
DYNAMICS AND SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST. BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL
BE NE CORNER OF NV LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS 100 KT JET CORE AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE REBUILDS TUESDAY
THROUGH END OF PERIOD WITH GENERAL SW FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. NOT
BEING AS AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING TUESDAY AS THE GFSX GUIDANCE SINCE
MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE LOWER HEIGHTS THAN OPERATIONAL RUN. MODEL
DETAILS BREAK DOWN WITH S/WV ENERGY PASSING BY NORTH OF NV AFTER
MIDWEEK BUT RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER NV. SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BECOMES
ENTRAINED IN SW FLOW. TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL IN THE DAYTIME FROM
MIDWEEK ONWARD. DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT...SO VALLEY MINIMUMS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH BIG DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING. KBB.
&&

.AVIATION...PACIFIC JET STREAM BEGINNING TO UNDERCUT TIGHTLY WOUND
VORT MAX OVER NE CALIF. THIS FEATURE WILL SHEAR TOWARD THE EAST
NORTHEAST TODAY AND WEAKEN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. CLEARING EXPECTED
MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS MOST OF NRN AND CENTRAL NV. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME NRN NV. KBB.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING INTO IDAHO THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN ZONE 451 AND NRN ZONE 452. DRY WLY
FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NERN NV SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NERN MTS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  CEC
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$