Tropical Depression ISELLE Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 170230
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008

ALL THAT REMAINS OF ISELLE IS AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF CLOUDS WELL
DISPLACED FROM A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE WEST.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF CONVECTIVE BURSTS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT IT IS BELIEVED
THAT THESE BRIEF EPISODES WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
RE-DEVELOP THE REMNANTS OF ISELLE.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING...HOWEVER
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 
AFTERWARD...THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE
CIRCULATION DISSIPATES IN AROUND 4 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON ISELLE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF ISELLE CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/0300Z 18.6N 112.7W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 18.7N 113.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 18.9N 114.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 19.0N 115.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 19.0N 115.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA