Tropical Depression HERNAN Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 130226
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2008

ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE ONCE-POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS A TIGHT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ABSENT
FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS NEAR THE CENTER...AND HERNAN NO LONGER MEETS THE
DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
30 KT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  A SLOW WEAKENING
OF THE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY UNTIL TOTAL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT FOUR
DAYS.  

HERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A SMALL BEND TO
THE WEST IN THE LONGER-TERM AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW.  

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HERNAN ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/0300Z 18.2N 134.8W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 17.9N 135.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 137.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 16.9N 138.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 16.4N 140.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 15.5N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE