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Tropical Depression FAY Wind Speed Probabilities
000
FONT11 KNHC 240244
PWSAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC SUN AUG 24 2008
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 5 23 33 42 51 63 69
TROP DEPRESSION 70 60 44 31 25 24 20
TROPICAL STORM 25 17 22 26 23 13 11
HURRICANE 1 1 2 2 2 1 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 1 2 1 X
HUR CAT 2 1 X X X X X X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 25KT 25KT 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
PENSACOLA FL 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
MOBILE AL 34 7 1( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15)
MOBILE AL 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GULFPORT MS 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15)
GULFPORT MS 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BURAS LA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
JACKSON MS 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18)
JACKSON MS 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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