FXUS66 KMTR 201156
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
456 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2008
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT SATURDAY...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO OUR DISTRICT BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY. SOME LOCAL DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST. VERY WEAK GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. THE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL AGAIN TODAY. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD BURN OFF FASTER ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. THIS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE STRATUS OUT OF THE AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME COOLING NEAR THE COAST BY THURSDAY WITH
POSSIBLY A RETURN OF COASTAL STRATUS. LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT
THAT BY LATE NEXT WEEK A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF FORMS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BRINGING A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE DISTRICT. THIS
SHOULD WARM UP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST ONCE AGAIN WHILE
INLAND AREAS WILL STAY WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:55 AM PDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUD DECK HAS STARTED
TO LIFT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING CIGS ABOVE 2000 FEET. SOME AREAS
SAW SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN OR HEAVY DRIZZLE LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME MORE DRIZZLE...MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST...SO PUT IN TEMPO ONLY FOR KMRY TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET AFTER 12 NOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD SCATTER OUT
AS WELL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER
TO REFORM AND MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING...AND THE
STRATUS TO MAKE A WEAK PUSH INLAND. MODEL FORECAST ONSHORE GRADIENTS
APPEAR TO BE WEAK AND THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROXIMATELY 1300 TO 1700 FEET DEEP.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
       .TDY...SCA...POINT PINOS TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-20 NM
                    THIS AFTERNOON
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: TENTINGER
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO