FXUS64 KMOB 201003
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST 
LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  
ALOFT...A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE 
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE LAKE CHARLES AREA THIS MORNING.  ALREADY 
WE ARE SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AHEAD OF THAT 
SHORTWAVE OVER MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.  FOR 
TODAY...WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR 
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST 
ALABAMA...WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE 
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE REMAINS IN PLACE.  WE CONTINUE 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST TONIGHT NEAR 
THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN 
THE EAST WHERE THE MOISTURE IS LESS ABUNDANT.  TEMPS CLOSE TO MAV 
MOS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  /05
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF 
THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. 
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE 
AN EASTERLY SFC WIND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES 
WILL DECREASE INTO THE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED RANGE FOR 
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADUALLY GETS SHUNTED 
TO THE EAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL 
INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS 
THE EASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE...SFC RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEND 
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS 
DROPPING TO NEAR AN INCH BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER SEASONABLE W/ HIGHS IN THE LOW TO 
MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. /13    
&&
.AVIATION...SCT-BKN DECKS BETWEEN 5000 AND 8000 FT WILL PREVAIL AT 
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE 
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  PERIODS OF MVRF/IFR IN SCATTERED/NUMEROUS 
THUNDERSTORMS AT KMOB AND KBFM CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 24Z.  
AT KPNS...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGES WILL BE LESS FOR THAT AREA 
TODAY...BUT WILL STILL ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF VCTS IN THE LATE 
MORNING AND AFTERNOON GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER 
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY.  /05
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC 
STATES...WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW 
OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH 
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND WE MAY END UP 
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE GULF WATERS BY LATE 
TUESDAY.  /05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  67  85  66 /  50  30  30  20 
PENSACOLA   84  67  85  68 /  30  20  30  20 
DESTIN      84  69  85  70 /  20  20  20  20 
EVERGREEN   83  61  84  62 /  30  20  20  10 
WAYNESBORO  82  63  82  59 /  60  40  30  10 
CAMDEN      83  62  82  59 /  30  30  20  10 
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
05/GARMON
13/CULLEN