FXUS64 KLCH 200917
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
417 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING MID-UPPER LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE MISSOURI/ILLINOIS BORDER WITH POSITIVELY TILTED
TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH EAST TEXAS. FEATURE HAS PULLED IN
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MAIN MOISTURE REMAINING AT 700 MB AND BELOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEING MAINTAINED BY INVERTED WEST GULF TROF. FEW SHOWERS DEPICTED
BY LCH RADAR INLAND FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES THEN NORTHEAST...WITH
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF HIGH ISLAND.
ALL MOS SHOWING HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN TODAY WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE UPGLIDE SIDE OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
WEST GULF TROF. GFS MOST ROBUST WITH POPS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE MORE CONSERVATIVE NAM NUMBERS. MODELS CONSISTENT IN DAMPING
AMPLITUDE/DEEPNESS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS THE 
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GULF WATERS TROF PROGGED TO EDGE SLOWLY
WEST ALSO LOSING AMPLITUDE WITH SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
TAKING ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT. THUS LOOKING FOR LIMITED RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY...AND WILL BE CARRYING A SILENT 10 PERCENT POP
ACROSS THE AREA GOING INTO THE WORK-WEEK. 
&&
.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TODAY BEGINNING IN
VFR LEVELS BUT DROPPING INTO MVFR TERRITORY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
WELL INTO THE COMING WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THIS FEATURE EDGES
WEST AND REPLACED BY FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  82  68  83  68  83 /  30  20  20  20  10 
KBPT  82  70  83  68  83 /  20  10  10  10  10 
KAEX  84  65  80  64  82 /  20  20  20  20  10 
KLFT  77  67  82  67  82 /  40  30  30  20  10 
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CAMERON...VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MARCOTTE