FXUS63 KIWX 201127
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
726 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL BE THE RULE THIS TAF PERIOD. LITTLE BIT OF CAPE IN 
THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH LIMITED REMAINING UPR SUPPORT MAY 
PROMOTE SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPMENT NEAR KLAF BUT VERY LOW PROBS ANYTHING 
MAKES IT TO EITHER KSBN OR KFWA. IF CIRRUS SHIELD THINS MUCH TONITE 
COULD BE A THREAT FOR MVFR VISBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS T/TD SPREAD 
PROGGED TO BE MINIMAL W/STG LOW LVL INVERSION. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY 
MENTION THIS ISSUANCE AND ALLOW LATER ISSUANCES/GUIDANCE CONFIRM OR 
DENY BR POSSIBILITIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM... STALLED/FILLING MID LVL CIRC ARCS CNTL/SRN MS RVR
VLY ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BNDRY PUSHING NWD INTO NERN MO/CNTL IL
SHOULD KEEP ANY AFTN SHRA/TSRA FOCUS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
W/SW...WARRANTING CONTINUATION OF DRY WEEKEND FCST. WEAK FNTL
BNDRY DROPPING SEWD INTO SOUTHERN GRTLKS THIS AFNT/EVE TO PROVIDE
LITTLE MORE THAN WIND SHIFT IN MEAGER COLUMN MOISTURE AND MID LVL
TROF AXIS/KINEMATICS/EPV ANOMALY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH/NORTHEAST
THROUGH HUDSON BAY AND EWD TODAY. 00 UTC/NAM SBCAPES UPTO 1500
J/KG ACRS NRN CWA WITH ONLY ISSUE NOTED WITH NAM INIT IS OVERTLY
AGGRESSIVE SFC/LLVL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF FNT/PSBL CONTAMINATION
FM KMPX UA RAOB INVOF ISOLD TSRA EARLIER FRI EVE. QUICK LOOK AT 06
UTC COMPARO AT 21 UTC MORE IN LINE WITH ANTICIPATED SBCAPES AOB
1000 J/K WITH CONVECTIVE PARCELS TO FIGHT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
WITH ML RIDGE TO HOLD IN PLACE AND FRONT TO PASS LATE IN AFTN HAVE
RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WITH ONLY HIGH/PREDOMINATELY THIN CI
EXPECTED. DRIER/COOLER AIR INTO NERN/ERN CWA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY TO
ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD/SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. FOR
SUNDAY...LLVL CONVERGENT AXIS FM NRN IL/WCNTL IN WITH CWA IN
DEEPER NERLY FLOW SHOULD AGAIN PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION...
WARRANTING DRY FCST TO CONT WITH CONSISTENT TEMP FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS COMING WORK WEEK AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATES THE PATTERN. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EVENTUALLY
BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DRY
AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE
20/00Z GFS MEX MOS WAS HINTING AT SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HESITANT TO RAISE HIGHS ANY MORE GIVEN
THE TRAJECTORY OF AIR AND CONSIDERING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS 72F
TO 74F. HOWEVER...ONGOING DRIER CONDITIONS OVER NW OHIO STILL
APPEAR TO BE HAVING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOWS...WITH
TEMPERATURES RECENTLY DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S. MODEL
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS LOOKS TO WARM IN THIS
REGARD...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS OF MUCH OF NW OHIO EXTENDING INTO FAR
NORTHEAST INDIANA. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMMED LOWS BACK OVER THESE
AREAS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ABOUT WEDNESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER...BUT ANY ACTIVITY 
SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION. 
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...SIMPSON