FXUS63 KAPX 201759
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1259 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/
COLD DRY AIR WILL HANG ON FOR ANOTHER DAY TODAY WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT 
SNOW AND FLURRIES TO PESTER PARTS OF THE NORTH WOODS. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT
TO DRAW IN MILDER AIR AND JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...OR
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY AN ORGANIZE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1106 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON
ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS WHICH WAS RIDGED NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES HUGGING THE HURON COAST WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
CLOUDS AND POPS TODAY.
NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON WEATHERWISE TODAY. WANING OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -15 TO 16 C RANGE WARMING TO
BETWEEN -11 AND -13 C BY 00Z WED. PREPONDERANCE OF DRY AIR (MEAN
900-700 MB RH 20 TO 40 PERCENT) TO START WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON (MEAN 900-700 MB RH 50 TO 60 PERCENT).
LASTLY...NORTHERLY FLOW BACKS TO NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE ABOVE
FACTORS POINT TO LESS FAVORABLE LES DEVELOPMENT SO WILL GO WITH
FLURRIES IN AFFECTED LES REGIME LOCATIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REVERING INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS FOR HIGHS. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ALREADY OUT
TO MAINLY ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
SULLIVAN
&&
.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME COMING TO A CONSENSUS ON THE UPCOMING 
WEEK. THE GENERAL IDEAS ARE THERE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT 
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND STRENGTH. FOR THE 
SHORT TERM...GOING TO TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS. 
THEN HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK...GOING TO START 
LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE DROP SOUTHEAST 
ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS IT APPEARS 
NOW...MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL MISS US TO THE 
NORTH. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...GOING 
TO LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF POPS IN EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER 
MICHIGAN...WITH FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN CONCERN MAY BE A PERIOD 
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE DRY SLOT 
FROM THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WE WILL BE WARM 
ADVECTING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. HOWEVER...NOT SURE THIS WARM 
AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO BE AS INTENSE AS WE WOULD NEED FOR A GOOD 
FZ DRIZZLE EVENT AND CHOOSING TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR 
NOW. EITHER WAY...WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS 
POTENTIAL. 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS 
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES FOR 
THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE A WHILE. 
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE BEYOND THURSDAY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER 
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON 
FRIDAY...PRODUCING OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL. THEN...AS THIS 
SYSTEM DEPARTS...ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE 
UPCOMING WEEKEND.   KAS
&&
.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 314 AM/
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...NOT ANY 
MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND THIS QUIET PERIOD MAY 
LAST THROUGH THURSDAY.  KAS
&&
.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1256 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS
PERSISTENT NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT 
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR APN AND TVC 
THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AT KAPN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN
SPREAD INTO KPLN AND REMAIN AT KTVC LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
AJS
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$