FXUS61 KCLE 201131
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
731 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO ON SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN
OHIO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. ONLY SOME VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO DEAL
WITH TODAY. HIGHS LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR
SUNDAY. HOWEVER CANT COMPLETELY RULE A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CORRY
TO CANTON LINE. 
OTHERWISE SOME DRIER AIR IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. A FEW LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST OF A CLE TO CAK LINE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY THE COOLER DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A RIDGE ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 
THURSDAY A WEAK FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BUT JUST 
CAN'T MAKE IT TOO FAR EAST. THE ECMWF IS DRY AND BARELY HINTS AT A 
FRONT WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO HAVE .01 NEAR NORTHWEST OHIO. AT THIS 
TIME WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST BECAUSE OF SO MUCH RIDGING. 
SKIES WILL EITHER BE MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY AND PARTLY CLOUDY AT 
TIMES. TEMPERATURE WISE WENT WITH THE GRIDDED MOS FOR THE MOST PART. 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR SOME EARLY MORNING BR THAT WILL
BURN OFF BY 14Z AS IT IS SHALLOW. OTHERWISE SOME CIRRUS TODAY. ON
THE EDGE IF ANY CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP...IF IT DOES IT WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
SHOULD BE FEW. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTHERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA JUST BEFORE 12Z. MODELS ARE ON THE EDGE ABOUT
WHETHER WE WILL HAVE MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS MAY DRY OUT SOME AND LOSE SOME
OMEGA...MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
.OUTLOOK...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY MORNING. COULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY MVFR CEILINGS WOULD BE FROM CLE EAST. ALSO THERE COULD BE A
THREAT OF A SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. 
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF EARLY MORNING BR DURING
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NO WIND PROBLEM ON THE LAKE TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD 
FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN LATE SATURDAY AND ITS INFLUENCE WILL 
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD BE 
LIGHT ENOUGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED SUNDAY. 
ANY RIP CURRENT ISSUES WOULD BE ISOLATED.
FOR EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN 
WEATHER INFLUENCE WITH A NORTHEAST OR EAST FLOW. CONCERN FOR MONDAY 
THAT THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES 
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RIP CURRENTS COULD ALSO BE 
AN ISSUE. ON TUESDAY THE FLOW IS MORE EASTERLY...SO THAT WILL LIMIT 
THE HIGHER WAVES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH 
DECREASES A MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND NO WIND OR 
WAVE PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA