FXUS61 KBUF 201129 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 729 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING MORE SUNSHINE AND WARM TO TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... PLENTY OF CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...COURTESY OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS CLOUDINESS IS THIN AND IN BANDS...SO WE CAN EXPECT VARYING AMOUNT OF CIRRUS TODAY...BUT THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO PREVENT YET ANOTHER FINE DAY WITH VEILED TO FULL SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPS RISE TO 12-14C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT U70S TO NEAR 80 IN AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCES. SPEAKING OF WHICH...LOOK FOR A DECENT SW FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING IMMED BUF AND ART AREAS A FEW DEG COOLER. MAIN FEATURE DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAKENING FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAV IS A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN NAM...BUT LATTER SEEMS MORE REASONABLE...SO WILL GO WITH FROPA IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME SUNDAY FROM BUF-ROC-ART. THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN SLGT CHC RANGE TWD MORNING. WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE AWHILE FOR THE CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DUE TO THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASE IN SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY'S GIVEN THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE EXPECTED MORNING CLOUD COVER. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD FADE AWAY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND RATHER DRY AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM ONTARIO. WITH CLEARING SKIES...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE 40S...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGIONS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NICE START TO AUTUMN ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PROVIDE NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM +5 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO +8C ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO NEW ENGLAND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SPECTACULAR EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NEW ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY PCPN WELL TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAYTIME WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 09Z SUNDAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CONTINUING TO SPILL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CLOUDINESS IS COURTESY OF A STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND WILL LIMIT ANY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND REACH A LINE FROM KBUF TO KROC TO KART BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z SUNDAY. LOOK FOR CIGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING FROPA AND WINDS WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO NORTHEAST. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...MVFR IN POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. && .MARINE... BRISK SOUTHERLIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING AND GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHWEST. THEY WILL AGAIN FRESHEN UP BY MID AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LAKES AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH A WINDSHIFT TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE NORTHEAST FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO MAY CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD TO THE CRITERIA NEEDED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON SUNDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL THEN SUBSIDE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A GENERAL NORTHEAST EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TJP NEAR TERM...SFM SHORT TERM...TJP LONG TERM...TJP AVIATION...SFM MARINE...SFM/TJP