FXUS61 KBOX 200829 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 429 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THEREAFTER THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... OCEAN STRATO-CU HAS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF SE NEW ENG EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. GFS 925 MB RH FIELD IS HANDLING THIS CLOUD COVER FAIRLY WELL AND KEEPS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT AT LEAST SCT-BKN CU/SC TO PERSIST TODAY ALONG AND EAST OF I95 CORRIDOR WHERE WE HAVE THE MOST CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL KEEP THE COOLEST TEMPS NEAR THE E COAST. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S E COASTAL MA TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE MILDEST TEMPS WILL BE IN PORTIONS OF LOWER CT VALLEY WHERE LOWER 70S POSSIBLE. BEACH FORECAST...WIND WAVES ARE TRANSITIONING TO LONGER PERIOD SWELL AS WINDS DIMINISH. 5 TO 7 FT EASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR EAST FACING BEACHES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HIGH SURF ADVSY WILL CONTINUE TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER...OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT AS AIRMASS MODIFIES. SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO SNE SUN AFTERNOON...LIKELY REACHING VICINITY OF SOUTH COAST TOWARD EVENING. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM SFC TO 800 MB MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON FOR N ZONES. WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE PIKE AS GFS TT/KI INDICATING WEAK INSTABILITY BURST ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT. WE INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC IN THE GRIDS NORTH OF BOS-BDL. BASED ON 2M TEMPS...SUNDAY MAXES SHOULD REACH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY APPROACH 80. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NE FLOW EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE REMAINING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. H85 TO H925 RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS ARE FAIRLY MOIST. SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK H85 THETA-E RIDGING AND OMEGA NOTED IN THE SHALLOW RH COLUMN...WITH WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE...THEREFORE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS A FEW MILLIBARS WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO CLOUDS SHOULD STILL DOMINATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH... WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD AID IN THE GRADUAL CLEARING PROCESS FROM NE TO SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...UNTIL A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE THE BEST FOCUS FOR LIFT REMAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS SOME RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE DUE TO CLEARING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE NE FLOW AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW SCATTERED CLOUDS TO REMAIN. FOG PATCHES COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. TUESDAY...A SUNNY AND COOL DAY EXPECTED...BUT DELTA T VALUES AROUND 14 CELSIUS WILL ALLOW FOR PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS. SOME CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF BKN CIGS 3-4 KFT ACK-HYA- FMH-PVD-BOS WHERE BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. ALSO BRIEF MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z BDL-BAF-MHT. TONIGHT...VFR...BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT BDL-BAF-MHT. SUN...VFR...WITH INCREASING CU/SC DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS 015-040 KFT WITH LOW CLOUDS...VFR/MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG PATCHES...SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. MONDAY...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS 015-040 KFT WITH LOW CLOUDS...VFR/MVFR VSBYS IN SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPROVING DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH...BUT CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH SOME OCEAN EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS. SOME GROUND FOG PATCHES DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND. TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR CEILINGS CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... TODAY...EASTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KTS...BUT SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN ROUGH WITH EAST SWELL OF 5-7 FT...HIGHEST SOUTH OF BID-ACK AND EAST OF CAPE COD. TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING BUT STILL UP TO 5 FT OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SUN...LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE LATE. SEAS BUILDING 2 TO 4 FT. MONDAY...N-NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...NE WINDS CONTINUE 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SCATTERED GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER SE WATERS...DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NECESSARY. WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY STILL BE NECESSARY FOR LEFTOVER NE SWELL UP TO 5 OR 6 FT ACROSS THE SE WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002-003-008- 009. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022- 024. NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-015. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/STRAUSS NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...STRAUSS AVIATION...KJC/STRAUSS MARINE...KJC/STRAUSS