FXUS61 KAKQ 201048 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 648 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WITH STRONG SFC HIGH OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND CSTL TROUGH OFF THE NC COAST...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NE FLOW TODAY. GFS/NAM STILL SHOWING SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN AMT OF LOW CLOUDS AND MSTR MAKING IT INLAND TODAY. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE ACRS CNTRL VA (DEW PTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S)...AND TRENDS IN PRECIP OVER THE GULF STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SCHC (20%) FOR SHWRS OVER FAR SE VA AND NE NC...AND CHANCE POPS (30-40%) FOR NC OUTER BANKS AND SRN CSTL WATERS. DO EXPECT TO SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN 1/3 OF THE CWA...GNLY PTLY SUNNY CNTRL AND WEST AND CLOUDY TO MCDY EAST. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH LWR TO MID 70S INTERIOR AND AROUND 70 ON THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... FOR TONIGHT...HAVE LEFT IN 20% CHANCES FOR SHWRS ACRS THE SE ZONES IN THE EVENING...THEN EXPECT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRSSURE BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACRS THE GRT LAKES AND NE STATES. LOWS RATHER CHILLY INLAND...SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE NW OF RICHMOND...50S ELSEWHERE...AND LWR/MID 60S SE COAST. SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WIN OUT...AND DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO AROUND NORMAL..UPR 70S/ AROUND 80...MO SUNNY SKIES IN THE MRNG...SOME INCREASE IN MID/UPR LVL CLOUDS BY AFTN. SUN NGT/MONDAY...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR CONTD PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES/NEW ENGLAND...AND WEAK TROUGH WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH/SE. KEEPING FCST DRY MON...AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS A FEW DGRS (HIGHS NEAR 80 INLAND) FROM PREV FCST (STAYING A FEW DGRS BLO LATEST GDNC THOUGH). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND MVG OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IN THE EXTENDED IS WHAT TO DO WITH A WEAK LOW OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE GFS FAVORS KEEPING IT JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE WEEK WHILE THE EURO MVS IT NORTH TOWARDS THE NC COAST FRI NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA TUE FOR MOST ZONES W/ LOW LVL MSTR/ ELY FLOW REGIME. INCREASING TO CHANCE BY FRI MORNING IN LINE WITH THE EURO AND HPC GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF HOW FAST (OR IF) THE LOW MVS TOWARDS THE AREA...A CONSISTENT E/NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS PRETTY SEASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...MID TO UPR 70S FOR HIGHS AND 55-60 DEGREES FOR LOWS WHICH IS RIGHT ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE MARITIMES...WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. AND THUS THE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH OUR AREA BEING IN BTW THIS HIGH PRES AND AREAS OF LOW PRES DEVLOPING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A NE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT INTO SUN BUT WITH SOME PERIODIC MVFR CIGS CONTINUING IN SE PORTIONS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER MON AND TUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING...OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF INLAND EARLY MORNING FOG. STRONGER WINDS AND DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP AROUND WED OR THU AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AGAIN TOWARD LATE IN THE WEEK. && .MARINE... GRADIENT WILL CONT TO SLACKEN THRU THIS AFTN...AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE, AS LOW SHIFTS TO THE NE, AND STRONG HIGH PRES MVS EAST OF THE MARITIMES. BASICALLY LEFT HEADLINES AS IS...ONLY MADE A TWEAK TO SCA TIMING FOR SRN CHES BAY. (EXTENDED IT A FEW HRS TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER WAVES AT THE MOUTH.) THINK ENDING HIGH SURF ADVSY AT 18Z IS REASONABLE GIVEN GUIDANCE AND TRENDS. CUD POSSIBLY SEE NEEDING AN EXTENSION FOR THE NRN OUTER BANKS(IT WILL BE CLOSE)...BUT THIS CAN BE EXTENDED LATER IF NEEDED BASED ON TRENDS. AND AGRESS THAT ALTHOUGH CURRENT SCA FOR COASTAL WATRS ONLY RUNS THROUGH SUN EVNG...GIVEN PERSISTANT E-NE FLOW...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT AN XTNDD PRD OF SCA ALONG CSTL WTRS THRU MID WEEK DUE TO SEAS AOA 5 FT. NXT SYSTM PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE S BY LATE NXT WEEK. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ024- 025. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ024- 025. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ102. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ084- 086-091-094-095-098>100. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ098>100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630- 631. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...JYM/LKB AVIATION...SMF MARINE...SMF