FXAK68 PAFC 201251
AFDAFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN AK THIS MORNING COVERS MOST OF
MAINLAND AK. A MASSIVE RIDGE LIES OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A MUCH
WEAKER RIDGE IS OVER THE BERING. AT THE SURFACE...ALL OF MAINLAND AK
AND THE NORTHERN BERING ARE BENEATH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
HIGH PRESSURE LIES SOUTH OF 50 N AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE DATELINE
TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING TO THE PRIBILOFS.
.MODEL DISCUSSION..
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FIRST THREE DAYS. THE FORECAST
LEANS HEAVILY ON THE GFS FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN BLENDS
TOWARD THE 00Z EC FOR THE MID AND LONG RANGE AS IT IS BELIEVED THAT A
BERING LOW NEXT WEEKEND WILL TAKE A TRAJECTORY CLOSER TO THE
ALEUTIANS THAN WHAT THE GFS IS DEPICTING. 
.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
IN THE WEST...HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA INTO MON. AT THAT TIME A FRONT MOVING ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH WILL BRING RAIN AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS
TO THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST THIS FRONT WILL REACH
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUE INTO WED.
FOR SOUTHWEST AK...CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP SHOWERY
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE FOR
INLAND AREAS... BUT MOVEMENT OF THE INTERIOR AK LOW TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING ALONG THE COAST ON SUN...WHICH WILL END
AS MOISTURE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW RETURNS
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MON INTO TUE. 
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER
THE REGION TODAY...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MON AS THE
INTERIOR LOW WEAKENS AND RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM FORECAST...
IN THE WEST...A SECOND WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
TUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RAIN AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS. SOUTHWEST AK WILL
HAVE SHOWERS ENDING TUE NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THU. THE
SECOND WEATHER FRONT CROSSING THE ALEUTIANS WILL THEN BRING WIND AND
RAIN TO THE COAST AND INLAND ON FRI. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE TUE
THROUGH FRI.
.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE
DS SEP 08