FXAK67 PAJK 192023
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1223 PM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2008
.SHORT TERM...A 995 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF KODIAK
ISLAND THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK RESIDUAL LOW NEAR
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BAND HAS A LOW ON
IT THAT WILL MOVE NORTH TO AROUND CAPE FAIRWEATHER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ONCE THAT WAVE IS THERE THE FRONT WILL BE
ABLE TO PROGRESS EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS PASSED THROUGH BUOY
46082 ALREADY. CONTINUED GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT SO NORTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST EXPECTING SOME GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BE EASILY IN THE 1 TO 2 RANGE.  
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SEEM TO BE AROUND SMALL CRAFT LEVELS IN
THE MARINE WATERS ON THE OUTSIDE... WILL LIKELY SEE SMALL CRAFT OR
NEAR THAT OVER THE LYNN CANAL AND PROBABLY CLARENCE STRAIT AREAS
AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE OF THE MARINE ZONES.
THERE SEEMS TO BE A FAIRLY GOOD COLD PUSH ALOFT BEHIND FRONT IN
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE DROPPING
ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN 12 TO 18 HOURS OVER THE OUTER COAST. THIS LOOKS
TO MAKE SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHEAST COAST AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IF
NOT EVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER IN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL
COMBINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A VORTICITY LOBE IN THE THOUGH LOOKS
LIKE THERE COULD BE SO ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR MARINE ZONES NORTH
OF CAPE DECISION AND THE COASTAL AREA BARANOF ISLAND NORTH THROUGH
YAKUTAT REGION FOR EARLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE
LOOKING FOR RAIN GOING TO SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
 
.LONG TERM...LONG TERM BEGINS A PERIOD OF TRANSITION INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE ADVECTS
EASTWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WESTERN CANADA MONDAY. AFTER THIS THE
MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
FOR NEXT WEEK ADVECTING IN COOLER 500 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AND THESE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINING OVER
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WHERE THE PVA WILL BE THE BEST. WILL SEE
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITION ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ADVECT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
OCCLUSION.
QUITE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z NAEFS AND 12Z GFS
AFTER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS EACH
INDIVIDUAL MODEL IS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE MID LEVEL
PHASING OF EACH SYSTEM IN THE PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
HOWEVER THE CERTAINTY OF CONTINUED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS
HIGH SO EXPECT CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
EACH DAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE BY THE NEW 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ON TUESDAY SO COULD
SEE DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT ATTM TIMING STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AS PER
COORDINATION WITH HPC AND AFC WENT WITH THE 12Z GFS FOR TODAYS
PACKAGE...HOWEVER, BLENDED 50/50 WITH PREVIOUS GRIDS AS TIMING
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER TUESDAY MORNING NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...DO EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION NEAR NORMAL WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION
NEXT WEEK. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -3 C BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE COULD SEE THE FIRST FROST
OF SEASON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FURTHER MODEL RUNS FOR THIS FROST
POTENTIAL AS DO EXPECT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD USHER IN
THE COLDER AIR FROM THE YUKON.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052. 
&&
$$
BEZENEK/PSS