AGPN40 KWNM 200816
MIMPAC
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN 
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
115 AM PDT SAT 20 SEP 2008 
FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W. 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW WILL WEAKEN AS IT 
MOVES SE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE 
OVER THE CENTRAL PZ6 WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUN. HIGH PRES IN THE 
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT. 
THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INLAND OVER SW CANADA AND THE PAC 
NW SUN INTO MON...THEN SPLIT AS A LOW PRES CENTER APPROACHES THE 
WATERS FROM THE W. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SPREAD WITH THIS 
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE A FAST AND STRONG 
OUTLIER. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS SLOWER AND MUCH WEAKER THAN THE 
GFS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS ALMOST AS STRONG AS THE GFS BUT 
ABOUT AS SLOW AS THE CANADIAN. PREFER A SOLUTION THAT BLENDS THE 
GFS AND ECMWF. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING GALES THROUGH THE WA WATERS TUE INTO 
WED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS SHOWS 40 KT 
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS 35 KT IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND 
30 KT AHEAD OF IT. EVEN THE WEAK CANADIAN HAS GALES WITH THE 
FRONT. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH GIVEN THIS CONSENSUS TO INTRODUCE 
35 KT GALES FOR THE WA WATERS TUE INTO WED.
FURTHER S...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST SUN THROUGH TUE. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE WINDS 
FROM PT ST GEORGE TO SW OF PT CONCEPTION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO 
KEEP WINDS FOR THE NRN CALIFORNIA WATERS SUB-GALE.
FOR SEAS WILL GO WITH THE WAVE WATCH MODEL WITH FEW ADJUSTMENTS. 
.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS... 
.CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...GALE TUE INTO WED...LOW TO MDT 
CONFDC. 
.CAPE LOOKOUT TO POINT ST GEORGE...NONE. 
.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS... 
.PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA...NONE. 
.PT ARENA TO PT CONCEPTION...NONE. 
.PT CONCEPTION TO GUADALUPE ISLAND...NONE. 
.FORECASTER BELL. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.