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12 October, 2003
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Natural
Hazards, Human Impacts, and Disaster Reduction USGCRP Seminar, 22 May 1997  |
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INTRODUCTION: The Honorable Dr. James
Baker SPEAKER: Dr. William H. Hooke
Natural
Disaster Reduction: A Growing National Challenge
Annual U.S. losses to natural
disasters are highly variable. Over the last few years, however, they
have averaged $50 billion per year, or roughly $1 billion per week.
Of even greater concern are the long-term trends in costs, which show
a doubling or tripling of the damages each decade, in constant dollars,
over the last 35 years. The impacts caused by natural hazards are increasing
as a result of societal changes such as urbanization and technological
interdependence. While disaster losses are expected to vary considerably
from year to year, it is also expected that they generally will continue
to increase, even as a fraction of the gross national product (GNP),
at least in the short run.
Domestically, natural disasters
are a sustainable development issue. Internationally, they threaten
global security. Reducing societal vulnerability to natural hazards
- thereby reducing the extent of or damages from natural disasters -
is important, possible, and cost-effective. Accomplishing this will
require a diverse, interconnected range of actions: Comprehensive hazard
identification and risk assessment; wiser land use; improved structural
design, building codes, and practice; greater public awareness, education,
and training; improved predictions and emergency response; and more
effective relief and recovery. These steps would be accelerated by a
coordinated, multi-level government response, with particular attention
needed at the state and local levels. Steps involving financial instruments
such as mortgages, property taxes, and insurance can be strongly influential.
Natural Disaster Reduction: The Links to Global Change The frequency, strength, and location of hazards - storms, floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, etc. - are intimately connected to longer period global change, whether due to natural variations or human-induced changes. Focusing on developing a coherent and effective societal response to the range and nature of natural hazards will increase the options that society has for coping with global change. Steps taken to reduce the impacts of natural hazards will provide new opportunities to experiment and learn how most effectively to prepare for global change. Each of the opportunities for building resilience to natural hazards will have its own set of hazard-specific, cultural, and technological aspects, and each will help provide insights about opportunities for responding to global change. Focusing on natural disaster reduction in the context of global change will also help reinforce the need for observing systems required for global change detection and study. Focusing attention on the reduction of natural disasters also offers the prospect for greatly strengthening international cooperation on a host of related environmental issues. What has become quite evident is that by building local resilience to natural extremes, we can increase global resilience to long-term changes in average conditions and can become more prepared for any changes in extreme conditions.
Dr. William H. Hooke currently holds two national responsibilities: Director of the U.S. Weather Research Program Office, and Chair of the interagency Subcommittee for Natural Disaster Reduction of the National Science and Technology Council's Committee on Environment and Natural Resources. He has worked for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and antecedent agencies since 1967. After 6 years of research in fundamental geophysical fluid dynamics and its application to the ionosphere, the boundary layer, air quality, aviation, and wind engineering, he moved into a series of management positions of increasing scope and responsibility. From 1973 to 1980, he was Chief of the Wave Propagation Laboratory's Atmospheric Studies Branch. From 1980 to 1983, he rotated through a series of management development assignments. From 1984 to 1987, he directed NOAA's Environmental Sciences Group (now the Forecast Systems Laboratory), having responsibility for much of the systems research and development for the National Weather Service Modernization, as well as for a range of other weather and climate research activities. From 1987 to 1993, he served as the Deputy Chief Scientist and Acting Chief Scientist of NOAA. For 2 decades, Dr. Hooke was an adjunct faculty member in the Department of Astrophysical, Planetary, and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Colorado, teaching courses and supervising students. He has served on several panels and committees of the National Research Council, and is also a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and an AMS Councilor. Dr. Hooke received his B.S. degree from Swarthmore College (1964), and his S.M. (1966) and Ph.D. (1967) degrees from the University of Chicago.
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