The large scale upper level ridge that has been keeping us dry the last few days has finally shifted to the east. A low pressure system off the coast of California will shift into the intermountain west, but will stay too far north to bring precipitation to the WGRFC area. Afternoon thunderstorms may POP up in far south Texas late in the period due to the return of tropical moisture.

For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for deep South Texas.

The rainfall that is forecast across the WGRFC region the next 5 days will produce little or no significant runoff.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher flows continue at a few locations on the Neches River system. Neches (NCST2) continues in minor flood, but a very slow recession is forecast as discharges from Lake Palestine slowly decrease. On the lower end of the system, Sour Lake (SOLT2) is experiencing a flat crest in the minor flood category that will continue into the weekend. Light rainfall forecast over the basin the next five days should not impact current flows or generate any new river flooding.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The San Jacinto river system continues to slowly recede. Higher flows continue, however, only Humble (HMMT2) and Luce Bayou at Huffman (HFFT2) remain above criteria. These locations are being impacted by higher than normal levels at Lake Houston. As lake levels continue to drop, HFFT2 and HMMT2 will continue very slow recessions and will fall below criteria levels this weekend. With no significant rain in the forecasts, conditions across the area should continue to improve.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Light amounts of rainfall are forecast over portions of southern Texas through the first of next week. With no significant rainfall forecast, no new or additional river flooding is expected over the WGRFC area the next five days.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/fop/wgrfcfop.html

MPE Precipitation Estimates: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/precip/html/mpe_estimates.shtml

National Precipitation Analysis: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/hydromet/qpf/qpfpage.html

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml

HOWIESON

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