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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR SEPTEMBER 2008
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII NOW AROUND ZERO DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2008 THROUGH THE END OF JULY - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 8.41 INCHES (39 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 2.79 INCHES (28 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 3.09 INCHES (26 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 76.87 INCHES (106 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR SEPTEMBER 2008. |
| TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | HILO | B40 | 76.4 | 0.5 | | B40 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 9.9 | | KAHULUI | B40 | 79.2 | 0.6 | | B40 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | | HONOLULU | B40 | 81.4 | 0.5 | | B40 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | | LIHUE | B40 | 79.4 | 0.3 | | B40 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR SON 2008 TO SON 2009 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SSTS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN HAVE RETURNED TO NEAR-AVERAGE - WHILE POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WARM SUB-SURFACE ANOMALIES HAVE NOW MODERATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC BASIN. THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO REFLECT SOME ASPECTS OF LA NIÑA. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST IN THIS REGION - WHILE CONVECTION REMAINS GENERALLY SUPPRESSED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. DESPITE RECENT INCREASES IN SST ANOMALIES - THE ACTUAL SSTS ARE NOT WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. BASED ON CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS - RECENT TRENDS - AND MODEL FORECASTS - ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FALL 2008.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HAWAII FROM SON TO OND 2008. MODELS ALSO PREDICT BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM SON TO OND 2008. |
| HILO | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | SON 2008 | B40 | 75.5 | 0.4 | | B45 | 25.8 | 31.7 | 38.4 | | OND 2008 | B40 | 74.2 | 0.4 | | B45 | 26.1 | 33.1 | 41.3 | | NDJ 2008 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | | EC | 25.5 | 32.9 | 41.7 | | DJF 2008 | EC | 72.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 20.1 | 27.2 | 35.9 | | JFM 2009 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | | EC | 23.9 | 30.9 | 39.4 | | FMA 2009 | EC | 72.1 | 0.4 | | EC | 29.5 | 35.9 | 43.1 | | MAM 2009 | EC | 72.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 28.3 | 34.9 | 42.6 | | AMJ 2009 | EC | 73.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 22.0 | 26.8 | 32.2 | | MJJ 2009 | EC | 75.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.1 | 23.1 | 27.8 | | JJA 2009 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.5 | 24.2 | 29.6 | | JAS 2009 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 22.2 | 27.1 | 32.7 | | ASO 2009 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 23.4 | 27.0 | 31.0 | | SON 2009 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 25.8 | 31.7 | 38.4 |
| KAHULUI | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | SON 2008 | B40 | 77.8 | 0.5 | | B45 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 4.3 | | OND 2008 | B40 | 75.9 | 0.5 | | B45 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | | NDJ 2008 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | | DJF 2008 | EC | 72.5 | 0.5 | | EC | 6.8 | 9.0 | 11.7 | | JFM 2009 | EC | 72.4 | 0.5 | | EC | 6.0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | | FMA 2009 | EC | 73.2 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.3 | 6.0 | 8.1 | | MAM 2009 | EC | 74.4 | 0.6 | | EC | 2.9 | 4.2 | 5.8 | | AMJ 2009 | EC | 75.8 | 0.6 | | EC | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.1 | | MJJ 2009 | EC | 77.3 | 0.6 | | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | | JJA 2009 | EC | 78.6 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | | JAS 2009 | EC | 79.1 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | | ASO 2009 | EC | 78.9 | 0.5 | | EC | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | | SON 2009 | EC | 77.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 2.2 | 3.1 | 4.3 |
| HONOLULU | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | SON 2008 | B40 | 79.6 | 0.5 | | B45 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.9 | | OND 2008 | B40 | 77.3 | 0.5 | | B45 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 8.4 | | NDJ 2008 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | | DJF 2008 | EC | 73.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 5.0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | | JFM 2009 | EC | 73.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 4.1 | 5.8 | 8.0 | | FMA 2009 | EC | 74.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 3.4 | 4.6 | 6.1 | | MAM 2009 | EC | 76.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.3 | | AMJ 2009 | EC | 77.7 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.6 | | MJJ 2009 | EC | 79.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | | JJA 2009 | EC | 80.7 | 0.4 | | EC | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | | JAS 2009 | EC | 81.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | | ASO 2009 | EC | 81.0 | 0.5 | | EC | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.8 | | SON 2009 | EC | 79.6 | 0.5 | | EC | 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.9 |
| LIHUE | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | SON 2008 | B40 | 77.7 | 0.3 | | B45 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | | OND 2008 | B40 | 75.6 | 0.3 | | B45 | 10.7 | 13.3 | 16.2 | | NDJ 2008 | EC | 73.6 | 0.3 | | EC | 9.8 | 12.5 | 15.8 | | DJF 2008 | EC | 72.4 | 0.4 | | EC | 8.6 | 11.4 | 14.7 | | JFM 2009 | EC | 72.4 | 0.4 | | EC | 8.0 | 10.8 | 14.1 | | FMA 2009 | EC | 73.1 | 0.4 | | EC | 7.5 | 9.6 | 12.0 | | MAM 2009 | EC | 74.4 | 0.4 | | EC | 7.3 | 9.2 | 11.4 | | AMJ 2009 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 5.3 | 7.0 | 9.0 | | MJJ 2009 | EC | 77.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 4.6 | 6.2 | 8.0 | | JJA 2009 | EC | 78.8 | 0.3 | | EC | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6.6 | | JAS 2009 | EC | 79.3 | 0.3 | | EC | 5.1 | 6.2 | 7.4 | | ASO 2009 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | | EC | 6.3 | 8.0 | 10.0 | | SON 2009 | EC | 77.7 | 0.3 | | EC | 9.1 | 10.9 | 12.9 |
FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU SEP 18, 2008
$$
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