NOAA
ISSUES U.S. WINTER UPDATE
December, January, February Seasonal Forecast Still On Course
Oct.
19, 2006 � Meteorologists at the NOAA
Climate Prediction Center released the latest seasonal outlook,
which reiterates this winter is likely to be warmer than the 30-year
norm (1971-2000) over much of the nation, yet cooler than last year's
very warm winter season. NOAA's heating degree day forecast for December,
January and February projects a two percent warmer winter than the 30-year
average but about eight percent cooler than last year. Meanwhile, a
strengthening El
Niño event continues to develop in the equatorial Pacific.
Although there has been early season snowfall in Buffalo and wintry
weather in the upper Midwest and Rockies this month, NOAA's seasonal
meteorologists say there is not much correlation between fall weather
and the winter season. (Click NOAA image for larger view of
winter temperature outlook for December 2006 through February 2007.
Click here
for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)
The
Seasonal Outlook
Overall, for December 2006 through February 2007, seasonal forecasters
expect warmer-than-average temperatures across parts of the West, Southwest,
Plains states, Midwest, parts of the Northeast and northern mid-Atlantic
region, as well as most of Alaska. Near-average temperatures are favored
for parts of the Southeast, while below-average temperatures are anticipated
for Hawaii. Maine, the southern mid-Atlantic region, the Tennessee Valley,
much of Texas and California, and the intermountain West have equal
chances of warmer, cooler, and near-normal temperatures this winter.
"Cooler-than-normal winter temperatures over Hawaii are still quite
mild, with highs in the major cities expected to be in the 70s,"
said Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations at the NOAA Climate
Prediction Center.
The
precipitation outlook calls for wetter-than-average conditions across
the Southwest from central and southern California to Texas and for
Florida and the south Atlantic Coast. Drier-than-average conditions
are favored in the Ohio Valley, the northern Rockies and Hawaii. Other
regions have equal chances of drier, wetter or near average precipitation.
(Click NOAA image for larger view of winter precipitation outlook
for December 2006 through February 2007. Click
here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)
(For the
seasonal outlook, temperature and precipitation averages vary from location
to location and are based on the 1971-2000 time period.)
NOAA's
Seasonal Drought Outlook, also updated today, reflects the pattern of
rainfall expected this winter. This pattern is expected to improve drought
conditions across Arizona, Texas, portions of the Plains and Southeast.
Drought is predicted to develop across parts of Idaho, Washington and
Oregon.
The
Strength & Impacts of El Niño
At present, weak El Niño conditions (warmer-than-average sea
surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, and other indicators)
have developed across the tropical Pacific during the past few months.
Current conditions and various forecasts imply that El Niño conditions
may strengthen during the next few months. "However, this event
is not expected to reach the magnitude of the very strong 1997-1998
El Niño episode," said Vernon Kousky, research meteorologist
at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. (Click NOAA image for
larger view of winter outlook for December 2006 through February 2007,
including the position of the jetstream. Click
here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)
El Niño
events influence the position and strength of the jet stream over the
Pacific Ocean, which in turn affects the winter precipitation and temperature
patterns across the country. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is responsible
for forecasting and monitoring El Niño events for the U.S. Over
the years, NOAA scientists have found that there tends to be some variety
in impacts among El Niño events. The stronger the event, the
more likely it becomes that much of the nation will experience a warmer
than average winter. However, it is important to note, "El Niño
does not always mean impending disaster," he added.
The
Good and Bad Sides of El Niño
The state of Florida illustrates most reliably the good and bad sides
of El Niño. For example, scientists at the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric
Prediction Studies at Florida State University, a NOAA partner, note
that during El Niño winters the probability of severe freezes
in the Southeast is very low. Major freezes in central Florida in the
last 100 years occurred during El Niño Southern Oscillation,
ENSO, neutral years. The threat of wildfires and drought also are greatly
reduced in Florida due to expected above normal precipitation.
However,
studies conducted at the NOAA National Weather Service field office
in Melbourne, Fla., find when there is an El Niño event there
is an increase in severe weather activity during the winter and spring
for Florida. Floridians should remember in later winter and spring killer
tornadoes tend to occur late at night and NOAA Weather Radio can be
an invaluable tool for alerting people of potential danger after they've
turned off the TV and gone to bed.
The NOAA
National Weather Service has a variety of weather safety information
online to help keep you safe. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center will
issue its final U.S. Winter Outlook for the 2006-2007 season on November
16, 2006.
In 2007
NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce
Department, celebrates 200 years of science and service to the nation.
Starting with the establishment of the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey
in 1807 by Thomas Jefferson much of America's scientific heritage is
rooted in NOAA. The agency is dedicated to enhancing economic security
and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and
climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation,
and by providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and
marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System
of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA
is working with its federal partners, more than 60 countries and the
European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as
integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
Relevant Web Sites
NOAA
Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Outlooks
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
U.S.
Seasonal Outlooks Predict Potential Future U.S. Climate & Weather
NOAA
Forecast Products
NOAA
Winter Weather Preparedness
NOAA
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion
NOAA
Drought Information Center
Media
Contact:
Carmeyia Gillis, NOAA
Climate Prediction Center, (301) 763-8000 ext. 7163
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