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NOAA Prepares for the 2006 Hurricane Field Research Program |
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A July 31 satellite image of the easterly wave that developed into Tropical Storm Chris on August 1, 2006. The Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, FL, is pleased to once again partner with NASA and other collaborators in the field to coordinate our research of Atlantic Hurricanes. The field activities that are planned for September 2006 will provide a unique opportunity to study an area of the Atlantic Ocean basin that is infrequently sampled by aircraft and yet generates numerous tropical waves that represent the seedlings for many tropical cyclones each year. In fact, these seedlings account for ~60% of all tropical cyclones and ~85% of all major hurricanes that occur in the Atlantic. And yet, only about 1 in 10 of these tropical waves actually forms into a named storm. The reasons for this are still not fully understood. Over the past several decades, the NOAA National Hurricane Center's forecasts of hurricane track have steadily improved by ~1% per year. Unfortunately, NHC's forecasts of hurricane intensity have not been met with the same level of success over the years. In fact, NOAA's advancements in predicting hurricane intensity lag behind those of track by ~15-20 years. Simply put, predicting how a hurricane will strengthen or weaken is a difficult task. Scientists are still attempting to fully understand the many complex factors in the atmosphere and ocean that can affect hurricane intensity. For these reasons, NOAA's main focus this summer will be to closely examine hurricane intensity change by conducting its Intensity Forecasting Experiment (called IFEX) during its 2006 hurricane field program. Saharan Air Layer outbreak moving off of Africa into the North Atlantic on 02 March 2003. Vast amounts of Saharan dust can be seen in this image captured by the MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite. The Aerosonde is a small robotic aircraft developed especially for long-range meteorological and environmental reconnaissance over oceanic and remote areas and in harsh conditions. The first aerosonde to observe a tropical system was launched from NASA's Wallops Flight facility in Virginia on September 16, 2005. (Above) NOAA's WP-3D Orion Hurricane Hunter aircraft; (Below) NOAA's Gulfstream-IV Hurricane Hunter jet The main goals of IFEX include:
NOAA will conduct several aircraft research experiments in support of its IFEX program this summer. These experiments include:
Working with our partners at NASA Two of these NOAA research experiments will be directly coordinated with NASA's African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses 2006 (NAMMA) project this summer:
This year's NOAA-NASA field campaign will monitor storms from seedlings over Africa to mature hurricanes that might affect the U.S. coastline several days later. NASA will focus its efforts to study insipient tropical disturbances and the Saharan Air Layer over Africa and the eastern North Atlantic. As the "baton is passed" east to west from NASA to NOAA, NOAA (operating from Barbados, St. Croix, or Bermuda ), will continue monitoring these same tropical systems, their possible genesis into hurricanes, and their interactions with the Saharan Air Layer. This summer's NOAA-NASA partnership will provide the most geographically expansive aircraft monitoring of tropical cyclones that has ever been carried out across the North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. The NAMMA and IFEX programs will also enable scientists to closely monitor disturbances that originate over Africa and eventually impact the U.S. NOAA and NASA scientists will use the data that is collected this summer to help unlock some of the mysteries related to hurricane intensity change in the Atlantic. Data that is collected will be incorporated into NOAA and other operational forecast models around the world to help improve forecasts of hurricane track and intensity.
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8/7/06 |
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CLIMATE · OCEANS, GREAT LAKES, and COASTS · WEATHER
and AIR QUALITY |