000
FXUS62 KTAE 200029
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
830 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO
RIDGE DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD INTO N FL...BRINGING US OUR FIRST TRULY
LOW HUMIDITY DAY OF THE SEASON. AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS ANALYZED IN
THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING NWD FROM THAT INTO
ERN MS. SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WERE LIMITED TO THESE AREAS AS WELL
AS IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENT ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NE FL
AND SE GA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAIN ARES OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR HAS PUSHED E OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE W. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
ATTENDED THIS TROUGH, BUT THESE HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING
SIGNIFICANT EWD PROGRESS. WE DO SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS HEADING WWD
TOWARD S CENTRAL GA THE THE ERN FL BIG BEND. HOWEVER, THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY E OF THE AREA. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN
DIP DOWN INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE ENCROACHING CLOUD COVER
MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS LOW AS THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WILL
MONITOR FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
TONIGHT`S MINS. LOOKING AHEAD TO SAT...IT LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY FOR
FOOTBALL HERE IN TALLAHASSEE WITH JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS
AND A NEGLIGIBLE POP.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE NE OF
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH, WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE E
TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION CRITERIA AT TIMES, DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WE PLAN TO EXPAND THE CAUTION
HEADLINE TO THE REMAINING LEGS AS ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
WILL EASILY SEE 15-20 KT OVERNIGHT. THE GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE QUITE AS TIGHT AS LAST NIGHT WHEN A BRIEF SCA EVENT OCCURRED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS SPREADING EAST AS IT THINS OUT. THE MAV
GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR...AND EVEN SOME IFR...CIGS AT ALMOST ALL OF THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST IS LOOKING LIKE
IT WILL GET INTO OUR EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
WINDS REMAINING UP...RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY BE CIGS INSTEAD OF
VSBYS. THE SREF GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL USE A BLEND OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
AND SETTLE ON MVFR TEMPOS ALL SITES EXCEPT PFN AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A VERY DRY AFTERNOON SAW THE RH DROP BRIEFLY TO
AROUND 35 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND N FL, BUT DURATIONS WERE
INSUFFICIENT TO MEET THE STATE OF FL RED FLAG CRITERIA. WE ALSO
NOTED 3-4 HOURS OF RH AROUND 25 PERCENT UP AT ABY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS IN GA, ENOUGH TO MEET THE GA COOL SEASON RED FLAG CRITERIA
(NOV 1-APR 30)...BUT NOT THE WARM SEASON CRITERIA. THIS SHOULD BE
THE DRIEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW EWD PROGRESSION THE CENTRAL U.S.
MID/UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE SERN U.S. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES, WHICH WILL AID IN THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE PERIOD. THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
MOVE ENE INTO THE NRN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, WITH ITS RIDGE EXTENDING
SWWD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SERN STATES.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS A CONTINUATION OF
THE E-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH REGARDS TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WRN GOMEX, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT DEVELOP A CLOSED
CIRCULATION, WHILE THE NAM DOES. THE NAM REMAINS THE DRIER OF THE
THREE SOLUTIONS, WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR
MOISTURE FIELDS. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER, EXPECT SILENT 10 POPS FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR WRN, ERN AND COASTAL ZONES BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE NEWD ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OVER THE NERN GOMEX. WITH THE PAST CONSISTENCY OF THE
GFS, WILL FAVOR THE MAVMOS POPS AND TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TUESDAY BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND LIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS,
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT TO NIL FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  66  88  67  88  69 /  10  10  10  30  30
PANAMA CITY  69  87  69  87  69 /  10  10  10  30  30
DOTHAN       63  84  64  84  64 /  10  10  10  20  20
ALBANY       64  85  64  85  65 /  05  10  10  20  20
VALDOSTA     64  86  65  86  66 /  10  10  10  30  30
CROSS CITY   66  88  67  88  69 /  10  20  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GODSEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JAMSKI/BARRY
REST OF DISCUSSION...WOOL