Tevatron Run II Physics Projections

Tevatron Run II Physics Projections (Spring 2006)

Document for the P5 Committee (version 8, September 30, 2005)

Electroweak Precision Measurements and Standard Model Higgs Searches

W Mass Measurement: 20 - 30 MeV
- Projections versus Integrated Luminosity (made by CDF): eps, gif, gif (log)
  - Extrapolated from Run Ib measurement
  - Uncertainties assumed to scale with luminosity:
    - Statiscal uncertainties
    - Systematic uncertainties such as Energy and momentum scale, Hadron Recoil against W
  - Uncertainties assumed not to scale with luminosity:
    - W production and decay: PDFs, d(sigma_W)/d(Pt), higher order QCD/QED effects
    - Assumed to be beween 20 MeV (dashed lines) and 30 MeV (solid lines)
Top Mass Measurement: ~1.5 GeV
- Assumptions
  - Channel: only lepton+jets channle considered.
  - Uncertainties that scale with luminosity - 1 / sqrt(lum)
    - Statistical uncertainty normalized at L=318 pb-1 to performance of current analyses.
    - Uncertainty due to Jet energy scale -- in-situ determination using W(->2 jets) mass.
  - Uncertainties that do not scale with luminosity
    - PDFs, Initial and Final state radiation, b-jet energy scale, b-tagging, background modeling
- Projections versus Integrated Luminosity in lepton+jets channel:
  - CDF only (made by CDF)
    - Total: eps, pdf
    - Jet Energy: eps
    - Other systematics: Assumed no improvement from what we have now (1.5 GeV)
  - CDF + D0 (made by D0)
    - Total, Jet Energy and Other systematics: eps (linear-linear), eps (log-log), gif (log-log)
    - Other systematic: Normalized to current estimate of 1.7 GeV at L=318 pb-1. Since most of these systematic uncertainties are of theoretical nature, assume that we can use the large data sets to constrain some of the model parameters and ultimately reduce it to 1 GeV after 8 fb-1.
Higgs Projections
- eps, gif
Discovery of Single Top and V_tb Measurement from Single Top
- Projections versus Integrated Luminosity:
  - D0: s- and t-channel separately - gif (linear-x), gif (log-x), Document (pdf)
  - CDF: s- and t-channel combined (web page)
Standard Model Higgs Sensitivity
- Report from Higgs sensitivity Committee (October 17, 2003)
- Projections using the current Run II sensitivities and expected improvements
  - WH: made by D0
  - WH,ZH: made by CDF

CP Violation and New Physics

Bs Mixing 5-sigma Observation (CDF+D0 combined)
- Projections made by CDF: gif, eps
- Document
Bs Lifetime Difference
- Projections made by D0
- Document
Br(Bs,d --> mu mu) 95% CL Limits
- Motivation: ppt, pdf
- Tevatron Projections (gif)
Br(Bs --> mu mu) and Br(Bs --> mu mu phi) 95% CL Limits (D0 only)
- Projections and Implication of Bs --> mu mu and Bs mixing frequency to SUSY made by D0: pdf

Supersymmetric Extension of the Standard Model

MSSM Higgs
- Motivation: ppt, pdf
- h/A --> bb-bar 95%CL Limits:
  - Projections made by D0
  - Document: ps, tex
- h/A/H --> tautau
- CDF in di-tau channel and D0 in bb-bar channel combined
  - 95% CL Limits: positive mu, negative mu
SUSY Reaches
- Using trilepton events
  - 95% Limit Projections made by D0: eps, gif
  - Document
- Using Jets + missing Et events
  - Motivation: Squark-Gluino Exclusion Limits for MSUGRA
  - 95% Limit Projectioins made by D0
  - Assumptions
    - improved jet energy scale
    - background scaled with luminosity - no high mass optimization
    - higher mass signal efficiences linearly extrapolated from lower mass
- Stop Searches using Jets + missing Et events
  - 95% Limit Projections made by CDF: eps gif
  - Assumptions:
    - Signal acceptance and SM background estimation is based on cuts that were previously optimized for ~163 pb-1.
    - Assumed a higher MET trigger cut.
    - Therefore the projected limit should be considered to be quite conservative

Other New Phenomena

Z'
- Projections by CDF
Large Extra Dimensions
- Projections by D0: eps, gif

Tevatron Performance: Lepton-Photon 2005 and Spring 2006

If you have any questions, please contact CDF and D0 Spokespersons.
Last updated on February 26, 2006