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Above-average prices threaten food security in West Africa

Estimated food security conditions, 1st Quarter 2009 (January-March)

Generally Food Secure
Moderately Food Insecure
Highly Food Insecure
Extremely Food Insecure
Famine
No Data

Favorable Conditions
Somewhat Favorable Conditions
Short Term Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Humanitarian Concern

Extreme Event
Heavy Snow
Heavy Rain
Flooding
Blowing Dust
Extreme Cold
Extreme Heat

Geographic data are partly derived from the UN/FAO GAUL system. Read Disclaimer

West Africa

Burkina Faso

02/03/2009

Food security conditions are generally good for the country, but urban households are increasingly affected by increases in cereals prices.
Grai ... more
- Food security conditions are generally good for the country, but urban households are increasingly affected by increases in cereals prices.
- Grain importers from coastal west Africa have begun their purchases in Burkina Faso earlier than usual. Producers are also holding onto parts of their grain stocks in anticipation of higher prices in coming months. These combined factors resulted in normal increases in cereals prices observed in January.
- Terms of trade for herders remain favorable, due to the continuing strength of animal prices.
Burkina Faso Country Center
Chad | Mali | Mauritania | Niger | Nigeria | Regional Center

Southern Africa

Mozambique

03/04/2009

In the south, drought conditions over the past two years, extremely high food prices, and the delay in the start of rains this season are the main causes of ... more
- In the south, drought conditions over the past two years, extremely high food prices, and the delay in the start of rains this season are the main causes of prevailing food insecurity, particularly in inland Gaza and Inhambane and parts of Maputo provinces. As a result of seasonal rains, the impact of drought has been minimized. Water for human and animal consumptions improved greatly and green maize, cowpeas, and peanuts are increasingly available. In Nampula, food security has become a significant concern for households in Mogincual District, due to multiple hazards, and immediate food assistance is required.
- Despite dry spells over the last month, the current cropping season is progressing well in most places. Crops are now reaching the flowering to maturity stage and there are places where harvests have already started. Additional rain will be required through the end of March in places where planting started late.
- Maize price increases have been higher this year than in previous years. The continuously high price of maize and the inability of poor households to generate income following last season’s poor harvests have reduced the ability of households to access enough quality food on markets, even though food is available.
- Prices remain well above the five-year average and prices last years in the whole country. While normally seasonal price drops are expected in February/March, in anticipation of the harvest onset, this year effective and significant drops will probably occur later.
Mozambique Country Center
Malawi | Zambia | Zimbabwe | Regional Center

Caribbean

Haiti

02/12/2009

The number of food insecure people in Haiti is estimated at approximately 3 million, about one the third of the population. The most affected zones are in th ... more
- The number of food insecure people in Haiti is estimated at approximately 3 million, about one the third of the population. The most affected zones are in the departments of Nord-Ouest, Artibonite, Sud-Est, Nippes and the Grande Anse.
- In the most likely scenario, food prices will continue to drop during the first six months of 2009, despite the below-normal harvest now in progress. This assumption is based on the declining cereal price trend on the international market. In this scenario, the number of people who are food insecure should slightly decrease from 3 million to approximately 2.8 million.
- The worst case scenario is primarily based on upcoming April-June seasonal rains being insufficient and badly distributed; the occurrence of floods and landslides during May and June (beginning of the cyclone season; and the continuation of the global financial crisis during an election period. In this scenario, the number of food insecure people would increase to approximately 3.1 million during the period of April-June 2009.
Haiti Country Center

East Africa

Djibouti

02/23/2009

Good seasonal rains from October to January have improved livestock conditions in many areas, and the production of milk, butter and livestock is satisfactor ... more
- Good seasonal rains from October to January have improved livestock conditions in many areas, and the production of milk, butter and livestock is satisfactory in all areas except the Northwest and the Southeast border pastoral livelihood zones.
- In urban areas, very poor households are resorting to negative coping strategies to meet minimum food needs, given the high cost of the minimum expenditure basket.
- The prospects of food security in inland areas, particularly in the Northwest, will be subject to the performance of the Sougoum/Diraa (March to May) rains which are vital for replenishing pasture, browse and water conditions in the livestock dependant areas of Northwest after almost five months of normal dry season.
- Food aid distributions across the country’s rural areas are continuing. This assistance is improving food security and mitigating the impacts of consecutive poor seasons on pastoral households.
Djibouti Country Center
Ethiopia | Kenya | Somalia | Sudan | Tanzania | Uganda | Regional Center

Central America

Guatemala

02/13/2009

Food availability for subsistence households is improving during the current quarter (January-March), following the recent harvest in the highlands and the p ... more
- Food availability for subsistence households is improving during the current quarter (January-March), following the recent harvest in the highlands and the postrera harvest in the rest of the country, including the north. Reserves of poor households throughout the country will begin to diminish toward the end of the quarter. The anticipated reduction in prices following the harvest and the seasonal demand for unskilled labor will improve economic access, particularly for households that depend on food purchases. However, losses in cash crops are also expected because of frosts and cold fronts. Due to all these factors, the number of food insecure people will rise from approximately 1.8 million to 1,885,666.
- In the most-likely scenario from April to June, the number of food insecure people will decline from an estimated 1,885,666 to 1,824,393. This period covers the hunger season, when prices normally reach their peak, but we do not expect prices to reach extreme levels, and we expect favorable climatic conditions for a normal primera staple cereals planting. Food availability will improve after the harvest in February and March, benefiting those affected by Tropical Depression 16 in October 2008.
- In the worst-case scenario from April to June, the poor yields from the February-March harvest in the north will affect food availability and prices, the rate of inflation will increase by double digits, and the climatic conditions of La Niña will be reestablished, causing an irregular and heavy rainy season. The number of people facing food insecurity could increase by 103,431, to an estimated 1.9 million.
Guatemala Country Center

Central Asia

Afghanistan

11/25/2008

Taking into consideration the magnitude of current donor-funded food security programs and recent imports, food security is likely to remain stable through F ... more
- Taking into consideration the magnitude of current donor-funded food security programs and recent imports, food security is likely to remain stable through February 2008, although typical seasonal increases in human and animal morbidity are likely to occur during the wet season.
- In comparison to the beginning of the 2007-2008 winter, the forecast for this year looks optimistic in terms of both precipitation and temperature.
- Retail wheat prices continue to decline in all reference markets. However, in comparison to both the five-year average and 2007, prices remain high.
Afghanistan Country Center

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