Hurricanes
A compendium of hurricane information

1. Hurricanes & Climate Change

2. Hurricane Status & News

3. Forecasts

4. Graphics

5. Other Hurricane Links

Hurricanes & Climate Change

What the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says (from Working Group I Report, Summary for Policy Makers [PDF] (2007):  

• About the past: "There is observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures. There are also suggestions of increased intense tropical cyclone activity in some other regions where concerns over data quality are greater.  Multi-decadal variability and the quality of the tropical cyclone records prior to routine satellite observations in about 1970 complicate the detection of long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity. There is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones."

• About the future: "Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical SSTs. There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of tropical cyclones.  The apparent increase in the proportion of very intense storms since 1970 in some regions is much larger than simulated by current models for that period."

Other Links:

FAQ / State of the Science: Atlantic Hurricanes & Climate [PDF].  Two page document (dtd 12 Dec 2006) from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Link Between Climate Change and Tropical Cyclone Activity: More Research Necessary [MS Word].  Press release (dtd 11 Dec 2006) from the World Meteorological Society (WMO).

NASA'S live tropical sea surface temperature Web site gives climate, hurricane clues Press release (dtd 12 Oct 2006) from NASA/Goddard. Sea surface temperatures give scientists information about ocean currents, climate, climate change and how a hurricane may evolve. Now, NASA has a Web page that provides frequent updates on changing ocean temperatures.

Answers to frequently-asked questions on “Forced and unforced ocean temperature
changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions”, by B.D. Santer et al [PDF].  By Ben Santer and Tom Wigley, August 29th, 2006.

U.S. Study Links Global Warming, Hurricane Intensity. Article (dtd 16 Aug 2006) from U.S. Department of State.

Hurricanes: Tempests in a Greenhouse [PDF].  Article by K. Emanuel, published in Physics Today, 59, 74-75 (August 2006). 

Mixing Politics and Science in Testing the Hypothesis That Greenhouse Warming Is Causing a Global Increase in Hurricane Intensity.   Article by J.A. Curry, P.J. Webster and G.J. Holland in the Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 87 (8), 1025-1037 (August 2006).

Establishing a Connection Between Global Warming and Hurricane Intensity. Press release (dtd 15 Aug 2006) from the American Geophysical Union (AGU).

Statement on the U.S. Hurricane Problem.  Statement (dtd 25 July 2006) by Kerry Emanuel, Richard Anthes, Judith Curry, James Elsner, Greg Holland, Phil Klotzbach, Tom Knutson, Chris Landsea, Max Mayfield, and Peter Webster.

Hurricanes: Global Warming Surpassed Natural Cycles in Fueling 2005 Season, NCAR Scientists Conclude. Press release (dtd 22 June 2006) from National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Hurricanes and the US Gulf Coast. Press release (dtd 19 Jun 2006) from the American Geophysical Union today published the report of a Conference of Experts, intended to guide policy makers charged with rebuilding areas affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The 20 scientists who participated in the conference looked at seven major areas: hurricanes, storm surge and flooding, subsidence, climate change, hydrology, infrastructure, and disaster preparedness and response. For each topic, they assessed current understanding of the phenomenon, near-term scientific needs, and longer-term directions.  Includes section on Climate Change.

Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. Article by M.E. Mann and K. A. Emanuel in EOS, 87, 233-244 (13 June 2006).  Online supplement also available.

Are Category 4 and 5 hurricanes increasing in number?. Article (undated, circa 2006) by Jeff Masters.

Climate change responsible for increased hurricanes. Press release (dtd 30 May 2006) from Penn State. Human induced climate change, rather than naturally occurring ocean cycles, may be responsible for the recent increases in frequency and strength of North Atlantic hurricanes, according to Penn State and Massachusetts Institute of Technology researchers. "Anthropogenic factors are likely responsible for long-term trends in tropical Atlantic warmth and tropical cyclone activity," the researchers report in an upcoming issue of the American Geophysical Society's Eos.

Hurricanes and Global Warming— Potential Linkages and Consequences.  H  Article by R.A. Anthes, R.W. Corell, G. Holland, J.W. Hurell, M. MacCracken, and Kevin E. Trenberth in BAMS (May 2006).

Area Where Hurricanes Develop Is Warmer, Say NOAA Scientists Press release (dtd 1 May 2006) from NOAA.

Deconvolution of the factors contributing to the increase in global hurricane intensity.  Article by C.D. Hoyos, P.A. Agudelo, P.J. Webster, and J.A. Curry in Science, 312 (5770), 94-97 (7 April 2006).

Response to comment on "Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment." Article  by P.J. Webster, J.A. Curry, J. Liu, and G. J. Holland in Science, 311 (5768), 1713c (24 March 2006).

Reactions to Tighter Hurricane Intensity / SST link.  Article (dtd 20 March 2006) from RealClimate.

Research re-examines strong hurricane studies Press release (dtd 16 March 2006) from Georgia Institute of Technology.

Climate and Hurricanes: An Idea With a History Posting (dtd 28 Feb 2006) from The Intersection (Chris Mooney).

Major New Paper on Hurricanes and Global Warming.  Article (dtd 16 Feb 2006) from The Intersection (Chris Mooney).

Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change.[PDF]  Article (dtd 2006) by M.E. Mann and K. A. Emanuel published in EOS (87: pp 233-244).  Online supplement available here.

Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activity.  Page (revised January 2006) maintained by Kerry Emanuel (Massachusetts Institute of Technology).  Includes "Frequently Asked Questions about Global Warming and Hurricanes." (link posted 12 Feb 2007).

Are There Trends in Hurricane Destruction?.  Letters published in the 22/29 December 2005 issue of Nature.  The letters were in response to the following article:  [Kerry Emanuel,436, 686–688 (2005)]

Storm season ends: Are potent hurricanes linked to global warming?. Article (dtd 30 Nov 2005) from Christian Science Monitor.

NOAA Reviews Record-Setting 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Article (dtd 29 Nov 2005) from NOAA Magazine.

NOAA Attributes Recent Increase in Hurricane Activity to Naturally Occurring Multi-Decadal Climate Variability.  Article (dtd 29 Nov 2005) from NOAA Magazine.

Hurricane Science.  Segment (dtd 18 October 2006) from the NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, produced by the non-profit media enterprise, PBS.  Includes transcript, video and audio.  The 2005 hurricane season raises "questions about why so many hurricanes and, especially, why so many very powerful hurricanes?  We explore that now with two experts in the field: Christopher Landsea is a meteorologist with the hurricane research division at NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Judith Curry is a climate scientist and chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. She recently co-authored a study on this subject in the journal Science." (link posted 19 October 2005)

Gulf Warm-Water Eddies Intensify Hurricane Changes. Press release (dtd 3 October 2005) from the National Science Foundation (NSF).

Is there a link between the Arctic and hurricanes?  Questions and answers (dtd 28 September 2005) from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). (link posted 7 October 2005)

The Wind and the Fury. "Has climate change made hurricanes fiercer, or are such claims hot air?" Article (dtd 17 Sep 2005) from Science News. (link posted 29 Sep 2005). 

Hurricanes and Global Warming - Q&A.  Posting (undated, circa early 2005) from the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.  (link posted 28 Sep 2005). 

Tip Sheet: What Do We Know About Hurricane Prediction, Behavior, and Impacts?  Press release (dtd 7 Sep 2005) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.  (link posted 22 Sep 2005). 

The 2005 Hurricane Season.  First hour of The Diane Rehm Show from National Public Radio (NPR), originally broadcast on 21 September 2005. Includes extensive discussion of relationship between hurricanes and climate change. (link posted 21 Sept 2005)  Guests include:

• Dr. Anthony Busalacchi, director of the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center at the University of Maryland
• Dr. Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech
• Dr. William Gray, professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University

Climate Change, Hurricanes, and Extreme Weather.  Collection of articles, freely available to the public, from Science Online.   This is part of a larger collection, Hurricanes, Climate, and Katrina: Research, Reviews, and Articles from Science Online.  (link posted 21 Sept 2005). 

• Is Katrina a Harbinger of Still More Powerful Hurricanes?  Article by Richard A. Kerr in Science (16 September 2005). 
• Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger, Study Says.  Press release (dtd 15 Sep 2005) from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  See similar press release from Georgia Institute of Technology (dtd 15 Sep 2005). 
• Storms get fewer but fiercer.  "Satellite images agree with study of hurricane costs."  Article (dtd 15 September 2005) from news@nature.com.
• Study: Severe Hurricanes Increasingly Common. Segment from National Public Radio's Morning Edition (originally broadcast 16 September 2005).

Hurricanes: A Global Warming Connection?  Article (dtd 8 September 2005) from The Why Files.  (link posted 8 September 2005).

Stronger Hurricanes? Researchers Debate Whether Global Warming Will Make Storms More Destructive.  Article (dtd 8 September 2005) by Richard Monasterky published by The Chronicle of Higher Education.  (link posted 8 September 2005).

Hurricanes and Global Warming - Is There a Connection?   Posting (dtd 2 September 2005) by Stefan Rahmstorf, Michael Mann, Rasmus Benestad, Gavin Schmidt, and William Connolley on RealClimate.org. (link posted 2 September 2005).

Hurricanes & Climate Change. Segment (9:00 minutes) from the radio program, Living on Earth (originally broadcast 2 September 2005). "MIT Professor Kerry Emanuel talks about his book "Divine Wind: the History and Science of Hurricanes." Emanuel's latest research, published in Nature Magazine, shows a startling global increase in hurricane strength and duration, which he correlates to rising sea temperatures linked to global warming." (link posted 4 September 2005).

Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Article by K.A. Emanuel in Nature, 436, 686-688 (4 August 2005). See also Online supplement to this paper.

FAQ: Hurricanes and global warming.  Page (updated 31 July 2005) from USA Today.  (link posted 1 September 2005)

Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years [PDF]. Letter by K. A. Emanuel, Nature advance online publication, posted online 31 July 2005.  See also online supplement[PDF]. (links posted 1 August 2005)

New Orleans, Hurricanes and Climate Change: A Question of Resiliency. Four-page flyer from a 20 June 2005 seminar in Washington, DC, sponsored by the American Meteorological Society.  Also available online in PDF format:

• Presentation by Thomas Knutson, Research Scientist, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ.
• Presentation Shirley Laska. Director of the Center for Hazards Assessment, Response and Technology (CHART)
  and Professor of Sociology at the University of New Orleans.

NCAR Climate Expert: Hurricanes To Intensify as Earth Warms.  Press release (dtd 16 June 2005) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). (posted 17 June 2005).

Hurricanes and global warming [PDF].  Article by R.A. Pielke, Jr., C. Landsea, M. Mayfield, J. Laver and R. Pasch (in press,2005), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Earth & Sky.  Daily science radio series, currently funded by a grant from the National Science Foundation and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Both transcripts & audio files are provided. (link posted 31 May 2005)

Testimony of Dr. Chris Landsea, Research Meteorologist, Atlantic Oceanic and Meteorological Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Before The Committee on Science Environment, Technology, And Standards Subcommittee United States House Of Representatives. (link posted 4 May 2005)

Hurricanes and climate change: Is there a connection? Article (dtd October 2004) in Staff Notes Monthly, from the University Corporation for Atmospherice Research. 

Impact of CO2-Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization. [PDF] Article by Thomas R. Knutson (NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey) and Robert E. Tuleya (Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia), published in Journal of Climate, 17(18), 15 September 2004.

Global Warming & Hurricanes.  Page (updated 7 May 2004) maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

FAQ: Hurricanes and Global Warming.  Series of questions & answers (dated 27 Oct 2003) from USA Today's "Ask Jack" feature.

Published in Science magazine, 20 July 2001 (Volume 293, Number 5529):

• Bengtsson, Lennart, "Hurricane Threats," pp 440-441.

• Goldenberg, Stanley B., Christopher W. Landsea, Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez, and William M. Gray, "The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications,"  pp 474-479.

Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activity.  Article (undated, circa late 1990s) by Kerry Emanuel (Center for Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Massachusetts Institute of Technology).

National Public Radio (NPR),   All Things Considered. September 2, 1998. RealAudio: Hurricanes and Global Warming -- "NPR's Richard Harris reports that hurricanes and tropical storms may do much more than stir up the weather. A study in the journal Nature finds they draw enormous quantities of carbon dioxide out of the ocean and put it into the air. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere contributes to global warming. But in the long run, severe storms may paradoxically slow climate change." (3:45)

Articles from the "Popular Science" series published by US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS):

• How Will the Frequency of Hurricanes be Affected by Climate Change? (dated Apr 1997)
  
• Will Climate Change Cause More Atlantic Hurricanes? (dated Jan 1998)

Backgrounders for USGCRP Seminars:

• El Niño/La Niña and Hurricanes: Was 1999 a Preview of the Near Future? (held 16 December 1999)

• Hurricanes! (held 11 December 1995)

• Climate Change Impacts  on the United States.  The Potential Consequences of  Climate Variability and Change: Foundation (2000)
  • Southeast  [PDF] (Chapter 5)
  • Northeast [PDF].  (Chapter 4)
  • Coastal Areas and Marine Resources.[PDF] (Chapter 16).    See section on "Hurricanes and Non-Tropical Storms."
• Assessing the Vulnerability of the Alabama Gulf Coast to Intense Hurricane Strikes and Forest Fires in the Light of Long-term Climatic Changes [654 KB PDF].  Chapter 13 of Integrated Assessment of the Climate Change Impacts on the Gulf Coast Region.  Detailed report (236 pages; dtd June 2003) by Z. H. Ning, R. E.Turner, T. Doyle and K.K. Abdollahi (lead authors), published by the Gulf Coast Climate Change Assessment Council (GCRCC) and Louisiana State University (LSU) Graphic Services.
• Effects and Outcomes of Caribbean Hurricanes in a Climate Change Scenario (PDF file), by Ariel E. Lugo. Published in special issue of The Science of the Total Environment (vol. 262, no.3, 2000) on Climate Change, Forests and Disturbances, edited by V.H. Dale.
• The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change on Coastal Areas and Marine Resources. [PDF] (dtd October 2000, released 19  January 2001).

Coasts [PDF] . Chapter 4, Volume 1 of Preparing for an Uncertain Climate, report (dtd October 1993) from the US Congress, Office of Technology Assessment.