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US Climate Change Science Program

Updated 11 October, 2003

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program:
Vision for the Program and
Highlights of the Scientific Strategic Plan
 Report released 24 July 2003
   

 

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CCSP Priorities

The United States is a world leader in climate change research, investing more than $20 billion on such research in the past 12 years. Even with substantial budgets, the potential scope of climate change research, observations, and scientific synthesis is so large that the CCSP must clearly identify the highest priority activities for support. This section outlines the high-priority CCSP topics and the basis for their designation. The overall criteria used to guide individual program and project support decisions are also described.

Information Sources for Determining High-Priority Activities

In developing priorities, the CCSP has considered information from many sources, including:

  • The analysis and reporting requirements imposed by the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101 -- 606)
  • The focus on reducing key scientific uncertainties through the Climate Change Research Initiative of June 2001
  • The recommendations in various reports of the National Research Council, including the following key NRC reports:
  • Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, requested by the Administration and published in June 2001
  • Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade, a seminal report published in 1999
  • Planning Climate and Global Change Research, requested by the Administration as part of the CCSP Strategic Plan development and published in February 2003
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  • Climate change assessment reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  • The annual program plans of the 13 collaborating CCSP agencies and departments, as documented in the annual series of Our Changing Planet reports
  • The Discussion Draft Strategic Plan published by the CCSP in November 2002
  • The deliberations at the Climate Change Science Workshop in December 2002, which was sponsored by the CCSP and attended by 1,300 climate specialists
  • The written comments submitted after the December 2002 CCSP workshop.
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    Link to CCSP Research Element:
    Atmospheric Composition

    Saharan Dust Off West Africa.

    Saharan Dust Off West Africa. The plume extends more than 1,000 miles (1,600 km). Scientists are trying to fully understand how such tiny airborne particles -- emitted worldwide from many different sources -- affect climate.

    Priorities Related to Reducing Key Uncertainties as Recommended by the NRC

    The June 2001 NRC report requested by the Administration provides an extensive summary of key climate uncertainties to be addressed. The President's June 2001 CCRI initiative took special note of these NRC recommendations, and directed that additional investments be directed to address these important knowledge gaps. More detailed information from the NRC report appears in Appendix C, and key research priorities identified by the NRC follow:

    "Predictions of global climate change will require major advances in understanding and modeling of (1) the factors that determine atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and (2) the so-called "feedbacks" that determine the sensitivity of the climate system to a prescribed increase in greenhouse gases. Specifically, this will involve reducing uncertainty regarding: (a) future usage of fossil fuels, (b) future emissions of methane, (c) the fraction of the future fossil fuel carbon that will remain in the atmosphere and provide radiative forcing versus exchange with the oceans or net exchange with the land biosphere, (d) the feedbacks in the climate system that determine both the magnitude of the change and the rate of energy uptake by the oceans, which together determine the magnitude and time history of the temperature increases for a given radiative forcing, (e) the details of the regional and local climate change consequent to an overall level of global climate change, (f) the nature and causes of the natural variability of climate and its interactions with forced changes, and (g) the direct and indirect effects of the changing distributions of aerosol. Because the total change in radiative forcing from other greenhouse gases over the last century has been nearly as large as that of carbon dioxide, their future evolution also must be addressed. At the heart of this is basic research, which allows for creative discoveries about those elements of the climate system that have not yet been identified, or studied.

    "Knowledge of the climate system and projections about the future climate are derived from fundamental physics and chemistry through models and observations of the atmosphere and the climate system. Climate models are built using the best scientific knowledge of the processes that operate within the climate system, which in turn are based on observations of these systems. A major limitation of these model forecasts for use around the world is the paucity of data available to evaluate the ability of coupled models to simulate important aspects of past climate. In addition, the observing system available today is a composite of observations that neither provides the information nor the continuity in the data needed to support measurements of climate variables. Therefore, above all, it is essential to ensure the existence of a long-term observing system that provides a more definitive observational foundation to evaluate decadal- to century-scale variability and change. This observing system must include observations of key state variables such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, pressure, clouds, sea ice and snow cover, sea level, sea-surface temperature, carbon fluxes, and soil moisture. Additionally, more comprehensive regional measurements of greenhouse gases would provide critical information about their local and regional source strengths.

    "Climate observations and modeling are becoming increasingly important for a wide segment of society including water resource managers, public health officials, agribusinesses, energy providers, forest managers, insurance companies, and city planners. In order to address the consequences of climate change and better serve the nation's decisionmakers, the research enterprise dealing with environmental change and environment-society interactions must be enhanced. This includes support of (a) interdisciplinary research that couples physical, chemical, biological, and human systems, (b) improved capability [to] integrate scientific knowledge, including its uncertainty, into effective decision support systems, and (c) an ability to conduct research at the regional or sectoral level that promotes analysis of the response of human and natural systems to multiple stresses."

    Link to CCSP Research Element:
    Climate Variability and Change

    Surface buoy with meteorological instrumentation being deployed in the Arabian Sea.

    In Situ Measurements. This surface buoy with meteorological instrumentation is being deployed in the Arabian Sea to help researchers study surface forcings. Source: Robert A. Weller, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

    CCSP Responses to the Identified Priority Research Needs

    The research priorities of the CCSP are reviewed on an annual cycle through the budget process and reflect priority needs and scientific opportunities. While the CCSP Strategic Plan includes a decade-long strategy, it also establishes priorities for the near term consistent with the CCRI. These priorities have been established in response to information from the above sources. These priorities are reflected in a focusing of resources and enhanced interagency coordination of ongoing and planned research that can best address major gaps in understanding of climate change. The CCSP Strategic Plan provides additional information on these priorities.

    For the near term, the CCSP will emphasize research on three sets of scientific uncertainties highlighted by the NRC: (1) atmospheric distributions and effects of aerosols; (2) climate feedbacks and sensitivity, initially focusing on polar feedbacks; and (3) carbon sources and sinks, focusing particularly on North America.

    The CCSP will also focus on climate observing systems including efforts to: (a) document historical records; (b) improve observations for model development and applications; (c) enhance biological and ecological observing systems; and (d) improve data archiving and information system architectures. These activities will involve substantial collaboration with the international climate science community and with several ongoing international programs. The CCSP observation and data management activities will support a major international initiative to develop a comprehensive, integrated Earth observing system. This 10-year international initiative is being launched at an Earth Observation Summit hosted by the United States in July 2003 in Washington, DC. Development of state-of-the-art climate modeling that will improve understanding of the causes and impacts of climate change is also a CCSP priority. Based on recommendations in several NRC reports on U.S. climate modeling and USGCRP evaluations, the CCSP agencies are prioritizing new activities to strengthen U.S. national climate modeling infrastructure.

    Finally, the CCSP plan calls for the creation of a series of more than 20 synthesis and assessment reports during the next 4 years. These reports represent principal responses to the top-priority research, observation, and decision support needs described above. The following section describes these reports in the context of the five overarching goals for CCSP.

    In addition to the planned synthesis and assessment reports, the CCSP collaborating agencies will continue to sponsor a large number of research projects each year. Prioritization principles also are applied to the entire group of projects in each of the CCSP study areas.

    CCSP Criteria for Prioritizing Research, Observations, and Scientific Synthesis Projects

    To ensure that the program evolves in response to identified needs, the CCSP has developed the following criteria to assist in reviewing priorities for work elements selected for support:

  • Scientific or technical quality
  • The proposed work must be scientifically rigorous as determined by peer review.
  • Implementation plans will include periodic review by external advisory groups (both researchers and users).
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  • Relevance to reducing scientific uncertainties and improving decision support tools in priority areas
  • Programs must substantially address one or more of the CCSP goals.
  • Programs must respond to needs for scientific information and enhance informed discussion by all relevant stakeholders.
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  • Track record of consistently good past performance and identified metrics for evaluating future progress
  • Programs addressing priorities with good track records of past performance will be favored for continued investment to the extent that time tables and metrics for evaluating future progress are provided.
  • Proposed programs that identify clear milestones for periodic assessment and documentation of progress will be favorably considered for new investment.
  • Cost and value
  • Research should address CCSP goals in a cost-effective way.
  • Research should be coordinated with and leverage other national and international efforts.
  • Programs that provide value-added products to improve decision support resources will be favored.
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