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Strategic Plan (364 pages)
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CCSP Goals
The CCSP has adopted five overarching scientific goals. By developing
information responsive to these goals, the program will ensure that it addresses
the most important climate-related issues. For each of the goals, the CCSP will
prepare information resources that support climate-related discussions and
decisions. These will include scientific synthesis and assessment analyses that
support evaluation of important policy issues. A table for each goal identifies
the initial topics to be addressed by these products.
CCSP Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and present climate and
environment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding of the
causes of observed variability and change.
Climate conditions change significantly over the span of seasons, years,
decades, and even longer time scales. CCSP research will improve useful
understanding of natural climate cycles on timescales from seasons to centuries.
Research will include improving forecasts of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) -- a
large-scale climate cycle (of approximately 2-year duration) with implications
for resource management -- as well as other natural climate cycles. The program
also will expand observations, monitoring, and data/information system
capabilities and increase confidence in our understanding of how and why climate
is changing. Fostering the transition of research observations to long-term
operational measurements and activities will be important.
Specific research foci addressing this goal are:
Better understand the natural long-term cycles in climate (e.g., Pacific
Decadal Variability, North Atlantic Oscillation)
Improve and harness the capability to forecast El Nino-La Nina events and
other seasonal to interannual cycles of variability
Sharpen understanding of climate extremes through improved observations,
analyses, and modeling, and determine whether any changes in their frequency
or intensity lie outside the range of natural variability
Increase confidence in the understanding of how and why climate has
changed
Expand observations and data/information system capabilities.
|
Topics for
Priority CCSP Synthesis Products |
Significance |
Completion |
| Temperature trends in the lower
atmosphere -- steps for understanding and reconciling differences. |
Inconsistencies in the temperature
profiles of different data sets reduce confidence in understanding of how
and why climate has changed. |
within 2 years |
| Past climate variability and change
in the Arctic and at high latitudes. |
High latitudes are especially
sensitive and may provide early indications of climate change; new
paleoclimate data will provide long-term context for recent observed
temperature increases. |
within 2 years |
| Reanalyses of historical climate
data for key atmospheric features. Implications for attribution of causes of
observed change. |
Understanding the magnitude of past
climate variations is key to increasing confidence in the understanding of
how and why climate has changed and why it may change in the future. |
2-4 years |
CCSP Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in
the Earth's climate and related systems.
Combustion of fossil fuels, changes in land cover and land use, and
industrial activities produce greenhouse gases, aerosols, and aerosol precursors
that alter the composition of the atmosphere and important physical and
biological properties of the Earth's surface. These changes have several
important climate effects, some of which can be quantified only poorly at
present.
Research conducted through the CCSP will reduce uncertainty about the sources
and sinks of greenhouse gases and aerosols. It also will reduce the uncertainty
regarding climate interactions with ozone in the upper and lower layers of the
atmosphere, movement of chemicals and particles in the atmosphere, and
regional-scale air quality. Research will improve quantification of the
interactions among the carbon cycle, other biological and ecological processes,
and land cover and land use to better project atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases and support improved decisionmaking. The program also will
improve capabilities for developing and analyzing emissions scenarios, in
cooperation with the Climate Change Technology Program.
Five research foci support this goal:
Reduce uncertainty about the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases,
emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and their climate effects
Monitor recovery of the ozone layer and improve understanding of the
interactions among climate change, ozone depletion, and other atmospheric
processes
Increase knowledge of the interactions among pollutant emissions,
long-range atmospheric transport, climate change, and air quality management
Develop information on the carbon cycle, land cover and use, and
biological/ecological processes by helping to quantify net emissions of
carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases, thereby improving the
evaluation of carbon sequestration strategies and alternative response
options
Improve capabilities to develop and apply emissions and related scenarios
for conducting "If..., then..." analyses in cooperation with the CCTP.
|
Topics for
Priority CCSP Synthesis Products |
Significance |
Completion |
| Updating scenarios of greenhouse
gas emissions and concentrations, in collaboration with the CCTP.
Review of integrated scenario development and application. |
Sound, comprehensive emissions
scenarios are essential for comparative analysis of how climate may change
in the future, as well as for analyses of mitigation and adaptation options.
|
within 2 years |
| North American carbon budget and
implications for the global carbon cycle. |
The buildup of CO2 and
methane in the atmosphere and the fraction of carbon being taken up by North
America's ecosystems and coastal oceans are key factors in estimating future
climate change. |
within 2 years |
| Aerosol properties and their
impacts on climate. |
There is a high level of
uncertainty about how climate may be affected by different types of
aerosols, both warming and cooling, and thus how climate change might be
affected by their control. |
2-4 years |
| Trends in emissions of
ozone-depleting substances, ozone layer recovery, and implications for
ultraviolet radiation exposure and climate change. |
This information is key to ensuring
that international agreements to phase out production of ozone-depleting
substances are having the expected outcome (recovery of the protective ozone
layer). |
2-4 years |
CCSP Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's climate and
related systems may change in the future.
While much is known about the mechanisms that affect the response of the
climate system to changes in natural and human influences, significant
uncertainty exists as to how much climate will change overall and how it will
change in specific regions.
A primary CCSP objective is the development of the information and scientific
capacity needed to sharpen qualitative and quantitative understanding through
interconnected observations, data assimilation, and modeling activities.
Comprehensive climate system models integrate scientific understanding of the
many components of the climate system and, thus, are the principal tools
available for making quantitative projections.
CCSP-supported research will address not only basic climate system properties
and interactions, but also a number of "feedbacks," or secondary changes that
can either reinforce or dampen the initial effects of greenhouse gas and aerosol
emissions or changes in land use and land cover. The program also will address
the potential for changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, and
will seek to reduce uncertainty regarding potential rapid or discontinuous
changes in climate. The CCSP will build on existing U.S. strengths in climate
research and modeling and will help develop "high-end" models that couple the
climate with other important physical and biological components of the Earth
system.
Research from the program will be integrated to focus on each of these areas:
Improve characterization of the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans
and their interactions through fluxes of energy and materials
Improve understanding of key "feedbacks" including changes in the amount
and distribution of water vapor, extent of ice and the Earth's reflectivity,
cloud properties, and biological and ecological systems
Increase understanding of the conditions that could give rise to events
such as rapid changes in ocean circulation owing to changes in temperature
and salinity gradients
Accelerate incorporation of improved knowledge of climate processes and
feedbacks into climate models to reduce uncertainty about climate
sensitivity (i.e., response to radiative forcing), projected climate
changes, and other related conditions
Improve national capacity to develop and apply climate models.
|
Topics for
Priority CCSP Synthesis Products |
Significance |
Completion |
| Climate models and their uses and
limitations, including sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty analysis. |
Clarifying the uses and limitations
of climate models at different spatial and temporal scales will contribute
to appropriate application of these results. |
within 2 years |
| Climate projections for research
and assessment based on emissions scenarios developed through the CCTP. |
Production of these projections
will help develop modeling capacity and will provide important inputs to
comparative analysis of response options. |
2-4 years years |
| Climate extremes including
documentation of current extremes. Prospects for improving projections. |
Extreme events have important
implications for natural resources, property, infrastructure, and public
safety. |
2-4 years |
| Risks of abrupt changes in global
climate. |
Abrupt changes have occurred in the
past and thus it is important to evaluate what we know about the potential
for abrupt change in the future. |
2-4 years |
CCSP Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural
and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes.
Seasonal to interannual variability in climate has been connected to impacts
on almost every aspect of human life. Long time scale natural climate cycles and
human-induced changes in climate may have additional effects. Improving the
ability to assess potential implications of variations and future changes in
climate and environmental conditions could enable governments, businesses, and
communities to reduce potential negative impacts and to take advantage of
opportunities by adapting infrastructure, activities, and plans.
CCSP research will examine the potential for multiple interacting effects
(e.g., the carbon dioxide "fertilization effect," deposition of nitrogen and
other nutrients, landscape changes that affect water resources and habitats,
changes in frequency of fires or pests) in order to improve knowledge of
sensitivity and adaptability to climate variability and change. CCSP research
also will improve methods to advance our understanding of the potential effects
of different atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and to develop
methods for comparing the potential impacts across different sectors.
Research focus areas are:
Improve knowledge of the sensitivity of ecosystems and economic sectors
to global climate variability and change
Identify and provide scientific inputs for evaluating adaptation options,
in cooperation with mission-oriented agencies and other resource managers
Improve understanding of how changes in ecosystems (including managed
ecosystems such as croplands) and human infrastructure interact over long
periods of time.
|
Topics for
Priority CCSP Synthesis Products |
Significance |
Completion |
| Coastal elevation and sensitivity
to sea level rise. |
Evaluation of how well equipped
society is to cope with potential sea level rise can help reduce
vulnerability. |
within 2 years |
| State-of-knowledge of thresholds of
change that could lead to discontinuities (sudden changes) in some
ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources. |
This approach seeks to determine
how much climate change natural environments and resources can withstand
before being adversely affected. |
2-4 years |
| Relationship between observed
ecosystem changes and climate change. |
Earlier blossoming times, longer
growing seasons, and other changes are being observed, and this report will
explore what is known about why these events are happening. |
2-4 years |
| Preliminary review of adaptation
options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources. |
Understanding of adaptation options
can support improved resource management -- whether change results from natural
or human causes -- and thus helps realize opportunities or reduce negative
impacts. |
2-4 years |
| Scenario-based analysis of the
climatological, environmental, resource, technological, and economic
implications of different atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.
|
Knowing how well we can
differentiate the impacts of different greenhouse gas concentrations is
important in determining the range of appropriate response policies. |
2-4 years |
| State-of-the-science of
socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate variability. |
This product will help improve
application of evolving ENSO forecasts by synthesizing information on
impacts, both positive and negative, of variability. |
2-4 years |
| Within the transportation sector, a
summary of climate change and variability sensitivities, potential impacts,
and response options. |
Safety and efficiency of
transportation infrastructure -- much of which has a long lifetime -- may be
increased through planning that takes account of sensitivities to climate
variability and change. |
2-4 years |
CCSP Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge
to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change.
Over the last decade, the scientific and technical community has developed a
variety of products to support management of risks and opportunities related to
climate variability and change. These products have evoked much commentary, both
positive and negative. The CCSP will encourage evaluation and learning from
these experiences in order to structure decision support processes and products
that use scientific knowledge to the best effect, while respecting and
disclosing the limits of this knowledge.
The CCSP will develop resources (e.g., observations, databases, data and
model products, scenarios, visualization products, scientific syntheses, and
assessments) to support policies, planning, and adaptive management. In
coordination with the CCTP, the CCSP also will develop and apply frameworks and
methods to integrate the complex array of research on human activities,
technology, emissions, land-use and land-cover change, nutrient cycles, climatic
feedbacks and responses, and potential impacts on ecosystems, resources, and the
economy.
Research to explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge
will focus on the following areas:
Support informed public discussion of issues of particular importance to
U.S. decisions by conducting research and providing scientific synthesis and
assessment reports
Support adaptive management and planning for resources and physical
infrastructure affected by climate variability and change; build new
partnerships with public and private sector entities that can benefit both
research and decisions
Support policymaking by conducting comparative analyses and evaluations
of the socioeconomic and environmental consequences of response options.
|
Topics for
Priority CCSP Synthesis Products |
Significance |
Completion |
| Uses and limitations of
observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision support for
selected sectors and regions. |
There is a great need for regional
climate information; further evaluation of the reliability of current
information is crucial in developing new applications. |
within 2 years |
| Best-practice approaches to
characterize, communicate, and incorporate scientific uncertainty in
decisionmaking. |
Improvements in how scientific
uncertainty is evaluated and communicated can help reduce misunderstanding
and misuse of this information. |
within 2 years |
| Decision support experiments and
evaluations using seasonal to interannual forecasts and observational data. |
Climate variability is an important
factor in resource planning and management; improved application of
forecasts and data can benefit society. |
within 2 years |
|
Link to CCSP Research Element:
Land Use/Land Cover Change
Deforestation near Rio Branco, Brazil. Systematic cutting of the forest
vegetation starts along roads and then fans out to create the "fishbone" pattern
evident in this image. A plume of smoke also is visible. The photo, taken on 28
July 2000 by the satellite-based Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer's (MISR)
vertical-viewing (nadir) camera, covers an area of 336 x 333 kilometers (207 x
209 miles). Source: NASA. |
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