The U.S. Climate Change Science Program:
Vision for the Program and
Highlights of the Scientific Strategic Plan
Report released 24 July 2003

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See also:
Full Strategic Plan (364 pages)

The CCSP will employ four core approaches in working toward its goals.

1. Scientific Research:
Plan, Sponsor, and Conduct Research on Changes in Climate and Related Systems

The greatest percentage of future CCSP budgets will be devoted to continuing this essential investment in scientific knowledge, facilitating the discovery of the unexpected, and advancing the frontiers of research. The CCSP participating agencies will coordinate their work through seven "research elements" that focus on features that make the Earth unique (see Research Element descriptions in text boxes throughout the Vision Document for more information). These features include diverse forms of carbon-based life, water in multiple interacting phases, an oxidizing and protective atmosphere, and a climate system that redistributes energy to make a habitable planet. The seven research elements have evolved from the framework for research presented in Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade, a report from the National Research Council that lays out advances in knowledge needed to improve predictive capability in Earth systems science:

In its sponsorship and conduct of research, the CCSP will establish a balance between focus and breadth by involving both decisionmakers and the science community. The program also will encourage integration among research elements to facilitate progress on research topics that span these research areas. This also will help develop knowledge of the evolution of the integrated Earth system, which is strongly affected by numerous interactions among its components at multiple scales. The CCSP will integrate activities such as modeling, observations, and data management in its research activities. The program will also encourage integration between and among agencies that conduct its scientific programs and supporting activities.

Scientific progress depends on models, which are essential tools for synthesizing observations, theory, and experimental results to investigate how the Earth system works and how it may be affected by human activities. The CCSP will improve the scientific basis of climate and climate impact models, improve modeling infrastructure and capacity, and coordinate and accelerate the use of models to provide information for decisions.

Since the early years of the USGCRP, an expanded program of global observations has been developed to characterize climate variability and change on a global and regional basis. These observations have included paleoclimatic records spanning thousands of years, satellite remote-sensing systems covering the entire globe, and numerous in situ observations on land (including the polar regions), in the atmosphere, and throughout the ocean. The suite of available observations includes long-term observations associated with NOAA's satellite monitoring program and global weather observations, which have not historically been considered as part of the USGCRP; several long-term surface-based measurement networks operated by NASA, NOAA, DOE, and other agencies; and several long-running NASA research satellites and series of satellites, as well as a large number of limited-duration measurements obtained during research campaigns.

Prior and current investments in new observations, as they come to fruition, will significantly enhance knowledge of environmental variables in the coming years. But there is also a need for enhanced global and regional integration of observation and data management systems, especially to help generate new and improved products for supporting decisions. The CCSP will expand the capacity to prioritize, ensure the quality of, archive, and disseminate (in useful format) the large quantity of available observations.

The CCSP will develop new requirements for observation systems to support integrated evaluation of climate and ecosystem parameters. Improved observation systems will address additional research issues, including those having to do with ecosystems, with changes in land use or land cover, and with feedbacks among climate variables.

In implementing its observing strategy, the CCSP will adhere to NRC climate monitoring principles, as well as to the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) climate monitoring principles for satellites. The program will also seek to foster closer integration of -- and cooperation among -- research and operational activities and programs. The CCSP will improve strategies for the transition of observational systems originally developed for research to an operational setting in order to carry out long-term monitoring and data collection. The program will benefit from, and contribute to, the design and operational implementation of a new international Earth Observation program. The program, initiated at a meeting hosted by the U.S. Government in July 2003, will be developed over the next 10 years.

The available scientific record has been used for many years to address a range of questions, from detecting climate change and attributing it to particular causes, to utilizing satellite and ground-based observations and related analyses in resource management applications. The CCSP will improve interactions with stakeholders and develop resources to support public discussion and planning, adaptive management, and policymaking. It also will encourage development of new methods, models, and other resources that facilitate economic analysis, decisionmaking under conditions of uncertainty, and integration and interpretation of information from the natural and social sciences in particular decision contexts.

Evaluation and communication of uncertainty and levels of confidence is crucial to supporting decisions. CCSP research will address fundamental uncertainties. However, uncertainty can never be completely eliminated, and thus it is also important to develop approaches for using scientific information in decisions made when there are substantial uncertainties. This will help decisionmakers understand the uses and limits of the available information. The CCSP will develop and employ transparent and systematic approaches for decision support, and will evaluate, quantify, and report levels of confidence and uncertainty.

Global climate change is complex and often subject to disputed interpretations even among scientists. Because of the unique, large commitment of public resources to CCSP activities, the CCSP has a responsibility to communicate with interested partners in the United States and throughout the world, and to learn from these partners on a continuing basis. As an essential part of its mission, the CCSP undertakes the significant responsibility of enhancing the quality of public discussion by stressing openness and transparency in its findings and reports.

The CCSP will employ four methods to ensure the trustworthiness of its reported findings:

The CCSP also will continue to urge all of its sponsored researchers to seek publication of their findings in the peer-reviewed scientific literature.

Each of these approaches is essential for achieving the CCSP's goals. Scientific Research and Observations will rely heavily on existing programs and mechanisms, as well as integration of capabilities developed outside the prior global change research framework. Decision Support and Communications will require the development of new capabilities and initiatives during the coming years, as well as interactions with other Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) and National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) committees.