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Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for April and the Daily Treasury Statements for May | June 5, 1998 |
A $37 billion deficit is estimated for May, $11 billion lower than the
deficit reported for the same month one year ago largely because of calendar
quirks. The results through May are consistent with CBO's estimate last
month that the fiscal year will end with a total surplus in the range of
$43 billion to $63 billion. Excluding the more than $100 billion surplus
estimated for off-budget items (Social Security and the Postal Service),
the government's on-budget activities would show a deficit on the order
of $41 billion to $59 billion.
APRIL RESULTSa (In billions of dollars) |
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April Estimate |
April Actual |
Difference | ||||
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Receipts | 260.0 | 261.0 | 1.0 | |||
Outlays | 137.0 | 136.4 | -0.6 | |||
Surplus | 123.0 | 124.6 | 1.6 | |||
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SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | ||||||
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. | ||||||
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The April surplus of $124.6 billion was $1.6 billion above CBO's estimate
for the month, within the typical $2 billion error range for monthly estimates.
CBO ESTIMATES FOR MAYa (In billions of dollars) |
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May 1997 |
May 1998 |
Estimated Change |
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Receipts | 94.5 | 95.6 | 1.1 | |||
Outlays | 143.0 | 133.0 | -10.0 | |||
Deficit (-) | -48.5 | -37.4 | 11.1 | |||
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SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | ||||||
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. | ||||||
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May receipts are estimated to be only $1 billion higher than a year ago,
largely because the month contained one less tax collection day this year.
Outlays also are expected to be about $10 billion lower than were recorded
for May 1997, largely because of calendar quirks. Last year, June 1 fell
on a weekend, so about $8 billion in June payments for military pay and
various benefits were made at the end of May. As a result, the estimated
deficit of $37 billion for May 1998 is $11 billion lower than a year ago.
COMPARISON WITH LAST YEARa (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars) |
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October-May
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Estimated Change |
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1997 | 1998 | |||
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Receipts | 1,018.2 | 1,121.5 | 103.3 | |
Outlays | 1,083.9 | 1,104.1 | 20.2 | |
Deficit (-)/Surplus | -65.7 | 17.3 | 83.1 | |
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SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | ||||
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. | ||||
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Receipts for the first eight months of the fiscal year are up $103 billion
over the amount collected last year for the same period, while outlays
are up by only $20 billion. The cumulative net result for October through
May is expected to be a surplus of $17 billion, an $83 billion improvement
over the comparable result last year.
RECEIPTS THROUGH MAYa (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars) |
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Major Source | October-May
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Percentage Change |
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1997 | 1998 | ||||
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Individual Income | 485.3 | 543.2 | 11.9 | ||
Corporate Income | 99.6 | 106.0 | 6.4 | ||
Social Insurance | 356.4 | 383.6 | 7.6 | ||
Other | 76.8 | 88.7 | 15.4 | ||
Total | 1,018.2 | 1,121.5 | 10.1 | ||
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SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | |||||
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. | |||||
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Receipts through May are up 10.1 percent over the comparable eight-month period one year ago. This year-over-year growth rate is down from the 11.0 percent rate reported last month for receipts through April because May 1998 receipts are estimated to be little changed from May 1997 receipts.
Withheld income and employment tax collections continued to be strong in May. Though they were up by only 5.9 percent over the same month last year, the increase would have been higher if there had been the same number of collection days this year.
Overall, estimated May receipts are consistent with CBO's expected range
of $1,705 billion to $1,715 billion for the fiscal year.
OUTLAYS THROUGH MAYa (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars) |
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Major Category | October-May
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Percentage Change |
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1997 | 1998 | ||||
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Defense-Military | 173.1 | 168.3 | -2.8 | ||
Social Security Benefits | 237.5 | 246.6 | 3.8 | ||
Medicare and Medicaid | 204.4 | 209.3 | 2.4 | ||
Net Interest on the Public Debt | 167.4 | 167.7 | 0.2 | ||
Other | 301.4 | 312.2 | 3.6 | ||
Total | 1,083.9 | 1,104.1 | 1.9 | ||
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SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | |||||
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. | |||||
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The relatively low outlay growth of 1.9 percent through May is partly the
result of the calendar. As noted earlier, outlays in May 1997 were boosted
by roughly $8 billion because June 1, 1997, fell on a weekend. Adjusting
for that calendar effect, outlays through May 1998 are up 2.6 percent over
last year. Outlays for the fiscal year are expected to be on the order
of 3.2 percent to 3.8 percent above last year's level.
FISCAL YEAR 1998 PROJECTIONS (In billions of dollars) |
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OMB May |
CBO May |
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Total Receipts | 1,704 | 1,705 to 1,715 | |
Total Outlays | 1,665 | 1,652 to 1,662 | |
Total Surplus | 39 | 43 to 63 | |
On-budget deficit(-) | -63 | -41 to -59 | |
Off-budget surplus | 102 | 102 to 104 | |
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SOURCE: Office of Management and Budget and Congressional Budget Office. | |||
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The OMB Mid-Session Review issued on May 26, 1998, projects a total
surplus of $39 billion for the fiscal year, slightly below CBO's expected
range of $43 billion to $63 billion. The total budget includes the Social
Security trust funds and the Postal Service, which are treated as off-budget
items. Excluding the more than $100 billion surplus in the off-budget items,
the remaining on-budget component would show a deficit on the order of
$41 billion to $59 billion under CBO's May estimates and $63 billion under
OMB's estimates.
Prepared by James Blum and Richard Kasten. |