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Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for November and the Daily Treasury Statements for December | January 7, 1999 |
Receipts for October through December (the first quarter of fiscal year
1999) were up 6.6 percent over collections for the same period last year,
a much lower growth rate than was posted a year ago. Outlays in December
were boosted by more than $27 billion in early payments of January Social
Security benefits because of a quirk in the calendar. Excluding those payments,
the first-quarter deficit was about $12 billion below last year's level.
NOVEMBER RESULTSa (In billions of dollars) |
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November Estimate |
November Actual |
Difference | ||||
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Receipts | 113.5 | 114.0 | 0.5 | |||
Outlays | 131.0 | 131.1 | 0.1 | |||
Deficit (-) | -17.5 | -17.1 | 0.4 | |||
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SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | ||||||
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. | ||||||
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The actual November deficit of $17.1 billion reported by the Treasury
Department last month was quite close to CBO's estimate, which was based
on daily Treasury statements for the month.
CBO ESTIMATES FOR DECEMBERa (In billions of dollars) |
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December 1997 |
December 1998 |
Estimated Change |
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Receipts | 168.0 | 178.0 | 10.0 | |||
Outlays | 154.4 | 183.5 | 29.1 | |||
Deficit (-) or Surplus | 13.6 | -5.5 | -19.1 | |||
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SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | ||||||
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. | ||||||
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Total receipts in December are estimated to be about $10 billion higher
than a year ago, and outlays are estimated to be about $29 billion higher,
largely because of early payments of January Social Security benefits.
CBO's estimates for the monthly total deficit or surplus are usually within
$2 billion of the final results reported later in the month by the Department
of the Treasury.
COMPARISON WITH LAST YEARa (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars) |
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October-December
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Estimated Change |
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1997 | 1998 | |||
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Receipts | 386.4 | 411.9 | 25.6 | |
Outlays | 426.1 | 467.0 | 41.0 | |
Deficit (-) | -39.7 | -55.1 | -15.4 | |
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SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | ||||
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. | ||||
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Receipts for the first quarter of fiscal year 1999 are estimated to
be more than $25 billion above last year's level for the same period. Outlays
are estimated to be up by about $41 billion, boosted by more than $27 billion
in early payments of January Social Security benefits. Excluding those
benefit payments, first-quarter outlays were up by about $13 billion over
last year, and the first-quarter deficit was down by about $12 billion.
RECEIPTS THROUGH DECEMBERa (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars) |
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Major Source |
October-December
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Percentage Change |
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1997 | 1998 | ||||
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Individual Income | 176.3 | 189.2 | 7.3 | ||
Corporate Income | 51.2 | 47.6 | -7.1 | ||
Social Insurance | 126.4 | 133.6 | 5.7 | ||
Other | 32.4 | 41.6 | 28.2 | ||
Total | 386.4 | 411.9 | 6.6 | ||
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SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | |||||
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. | |||||
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Receipts in the first three months of the fiscal year were up 6.6 percent over collections for the same period a year ago. Revenue growth last year was 11.7 percent for the first quarter and 9.0 percent for the full fiscal year.
Collections of individual income and social insurance taxes during the first quarter are estimated to be up by about 6.6 percent, compared with first-quarter growth a year ago of 9.7 percent.
Corporate income tax receipts for the first quarter were about $3.6
billion lower than last year, reflecting lower corporate profits.
OUTLAYS THROUGH DECEMBERa (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars) |
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Major Category | Oct-Dec
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Percentage Change |
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1997 | 1998 | ||||
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Defense-Military | 67.8 | 67.8 | b | ||
Social Security Benefits | 91.2 | 123.4 | 35.3 | ||
Medicare and Medicaid | 81.4 | 81.8 | 0.5 | ||
Net Interest on the Public Debt | 63.0 | 59.0 | -6.2 | ||
Other | 122.7 | 135.0 | 10.0 | ||
Total | 426.1 | 467.0 | 9.6 | ||
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SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | |||||
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. | |||||
b. Less than 0.05 percent. | |||||
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Outlays in the first quarter of fiscal year 1999 were boosted by more than $27 billion in early payments of January Social Security benefits. Excluding the early payments, total outlays in the first quarter were up by about 3.1 percent over last year rather than by the 9.6 percent shown above. A year ago, outlay growth was 5.1 percent for the first quarter and 3.2 percent for the full fiscal year.
The growth in Social Security benefits during the October-December quarter would be about 3.3 percent if the early January benefit payments were excluded.
Outlays for Medicare and Medicaid show little growth for the first quarter. Medicare outlays through December were actually slightly lower than a year ago, whereas Medicaid outlays were up by just over 3 percent.
FISCAL YEAR 1999 PROJECTIONS
CBO is preparing new projections for 1999 that will be released toward
the end of the month. On the basis of first-quarter results, the total
budget surplus is expected to be higher than the $63 billion level estimated
in November.
Prepared by James Blum and Richard Kasten. |