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gfdl's home page > gfdl on-line bibliography > 1986: Short- and Medium-Range Numerical Weather Prediction, 359-363
Recent developments in the GFDL extended-range forecasting system
| Stern, W., R. Pierrehumbert, J. Sirutis, J. Ploshay, and K. Miyakoda, 1986: Recent developments in the GFDL extended-range forecasting system. In Short- and Medium-Range Numerical Weather Prediction, (Collection of papers presented at the WMO/IUGG NWP Symposium), 359-363. |
| Abstract: An assessment is made of the areas of focus for improving extended-range forecasting. Two topics currently being researched involve the reduction of systematic error by improving a GCM's accuracy and the refinement of the transition between the data assimilation phase and the forecasting phase. |
| Subgrid-scale orographic parameterizations have been the subject of recent model improvement activities. Results are shown for an envelope orography with an N48L9 gridpoint model and using a mountain gravity wave drag scheme with an R42L18 spectral model. In both cases there is an encouraging reduction in the systematic errors. |
| Proper initialization of tropical features, i.e., 40-50 day waves, may be crucial for extended-range predictions in the extra-tropics as well as the tropics. Using a continuous data assimilation scheme the 40-50 day oscillations in the tropics appear to be well maintained from the assimilation to the forecast phase. However, the assimilation system underestimates precipitation and evaporation rates. |