Hurricane Climate Studies

Principal Investigators:
Stanley Goldenberg
Jason Dunion
Chris Landsea (TPC)

Objectives: To improve our basic physical understanding and forecasts of seasonal to multidecadal tropical cyclone activity, climatological atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and economic and societal impact. Improve the historical hurricane database through re-analysis. Create better skill measures for El Niño forecasts.

Investigations:

• NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts
• Atlantic Hurricane Reanalysis Project
• Long-term variability of late season hurricanes
Jordan sounding update

References:

• Goldenberg, S.B., C.W. Landsea, A.M. Mestas-Nuñez, and W.M. Gray "The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity : Causes and implications" Science 2001 v.293 no.5529 pp.474-479
• Landsea, C.W. Comment on "Changes in the Rates of North Atlantic Major Hurricane Activity During the 20th Century" July 15, 2001 Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 28 No. 14, pp. 2871-2872
• Landsea,C.W., Knaff,J.A., 2000: "How much skill was there in forecasting the very strong 1997-98 El Nino?" Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v.81, pp.2107-2119.
• Landsea, C. W., 2000: "El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the seasonal predictability of tropical cyclones" El Niño and the Southern Oscillation : Multiscale Variability and Global and Regional Impacts, edited by H. F. Diaz and V. Markgraf. pp.149-181
• Landsea, C. W., 2000: "Climate variability of tropical cyclones: Past, Present and Future" Storms edited by R. A. Pielke, Sr. and R. A. Pielke, Jr, Routledge, New York, p.220-241
• Landsea, C.W., Pielke, Jr., R.A., Mestas-Nuñez, A.M., Knaff, J.A., 1999: Atlantic basin hurricanes: Indices of climatic changes, Climatic Change, 42, 89-129.
• Pielke, Jr., R. A., and Landsea, C.W., 1999: "La Niña, El Niño, and Atlantic Hurricane Damages in the United States" , Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 2027-2033.
• Bove, M. C., J. B. Elsner, C. W. Landsea,, X. Niu and J. J. O'Brien, 1998: Effect of El Nino on U.S. landfalling hurricanes, revisited. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,79, 2477-2482.
• Henderson--Sellers, A., H. Zhang, G. Berz, K. Emanuel, W. Gray, C. Landsea, G. Holland, J. Lighthill, S-L. Shieh, P. Webster, K. McGuffie, 1998: Tropical cyclones and global climate change: A post-IPCC assessment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 19-38.
• Nicholls, N., C.W. Landsea, and J. Gill, 1998: Recent trends in Australian region tropical cyclone activity. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 65, 197-205.
• Landsea, C.W., G.D. Bell, W.M. Gray, and S.B. Goldenberg, 1998: The extremely active 1995 Atlantic hurricane season: Environmental conditions and verification of seasonal forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1174-1193.
• Landsea, C.W., 1997: Comments on "Will greenhouse gas--induced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes?", Tellus, 49A, 622--623.
• Knaff, J.A, and C.W. Landsea, 1997: An El Nino--Southern Oscillation CLImatology and PERsistence (CLIPER) Forecasting Scheme. Wea. Forecasting, 12,633--652.
• Gray, W.M., J.D. Sheaffer, and C.W. Landsea, 1997: Climate trends associated with multidecadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity. "Hurricanes: Climate and Socioeconomic Impacts." H.F. Diaz and R.S. Pulwarty, Eds., Springer--Verlag, New York, 15-53.
• Landsea, C.W., N. Nicholls, W.M. Gray, and L.A. Avila, 1996: Downward trends in the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes during the past five decades. Geo. Res. Letters, 23, 1697-1700.
• Landsea, C.W., W.M. Gray, P.W. Mielke, Jr., and K.J. Berry, 1994: Seasonal forecasting of Atlantic hurricane activity. Weather, 49, 273-284.
• Gray, W.M., C.W. Landsea, P.W. Mielke, Jr., and K.J. Berry, 1994: Predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 June. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 103-115.
• Landsea, C.W., 1993: A climatology of intense (or major) Atlantic hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 1703-1713.
• Gray, W.M., C.W. Landsea, P.W. Mielke, Jr., and K.J. Berry, 1993: Predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 August. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 73-86.
• Gray, W.M., and C.W. Landsea, 1993: Examples of the large modification in US East Coast hurricane spawned destruction by prior occurring West African rainfall conditions. "ICSU/WMO International Symposium on Tropical Cyclone Disasters", J. Lighthill, Z. Zhemin, G. Holland, and K. Emanuel, Eds. Peking University Press, Beijing, 182-189.
• Landsea, C.W., W.M. Gray, P.W. Mielke, Jr., and K.J. Berry, 1992: Long-term variations of Western Sahelian monsoon rainfall and intense U.S. landfalling hurricanes. J. Climate, 5, 1528-1534.
• Gray, W.M., C.W. Landsea, P.W. Mielke, Jr., and K.J. Berry, 1992: Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6-11 months in advance. Wea. Forecasting, 7, pp.440-455
• Gray, W.M., and C.W. Landsea, 1992: African rainfall as a precursor of hurricane-related destruction on the U.S. East Coast. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,73, 1352-1364.
• Landsea, C.W., and W.M. Gray, 1992: The strong association between Western Sahelian monsoon rainfall and intense Atlantic hurricanes. J. Climate, 5, 435-453.