The VISION Model

What is VISION?

The VISION model has been developed to provide estimates of the potential energy use, oil use and carbon emission impacts of advanced light and heavy-duty vehicle technologies and alternative fuels though the year 2050. The model consists of two Excel workbooks: a Base Case of US highway fuel use and carbon emissions to 2050 and a copy of the Base Case that can be modified to reflect alternative assumptions about advanced vehicle and alternative fuel market penetration.

Annual Updates

The VISION model is updated annually. The Base Case in the most recent version of the model is based on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) projections of light and heavy vehicle energy use in its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2007 report. EIA's AEO 2007 projections end in the year 2030. In the VISION model, these projections are extended to the year 2050. For greenhouse gas emissions, the VISION model uses carbon coefficients derived from ANL's GREET model. The carbon coefficients are for the full fuel cycle.

Latest model. The latest version of the model is called "VISION 2007 AEO Base Case Expanded." We have expanded the model from prior versions to incorporate PHEVs and a fuel flexibility option for advanced technology vehicles.

• Download the VISION 2007 AEO Base Case Expanded Model

Prior versions of the model are listed at the end of this discussion.

Instructions, Copyright & User Agreement

Instructions for use of the Model are provided below. There is also a User Guide on the first sheet of the Excel workbook. Notes contained throughout the workbook indicate the sources of data used in the model (though they may not completely up-to-date).

A report describing the model in greater detail is provided below. It specifically discusses the "VISION 2.0 Fixed MPG Base Case with AEO 2003 Data" version of the model, but is still useful in understanding the latest version of the model.

• VISION Model: Description of Model Used to Estimate the Impact of Highway Vehicle Technologies and Fuels on Energy Use and Carbon Emissions to 2050 (333kb pdf)
• Copyright Statement and User Agreement
• Instructions

VISION Developers

The VISION model was developed by various analysts over time. Primary credit goes to John Maples, now of EIA, and to Anant Vyas and Margaret Singh, of Argonne National Laboratory, for substantial updating. It is sponsored by Phil Patterson, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.

Prior Versions of VISION

• "VISION 2.0 Fixed MPG Base Case with AEO 2003 Data" reflects data from EIA's AEO 2003 report, though some sections do not. In particular, the base case does not use EIA's fuel economy by vehicle type estimates and instead assumes a fixed MPG for conventional internal combustion engines (ICE) operating on gasoline in the future. Further, where EIA estimates some penetration of advanced technology vehicles and alternative fuels, the base case does not.
  • Download the VISION 2.0 Model
• "VISION 2004 Fixed MPG Base Case" is the same as "VISION 2.0 Fixed MPG Base Case" except that it reflects data from EIA's AEO 2004 report.
  • Download the VISION 2004 Fixed MPG Model
• "VISION 2004 AEO ICE MPG Base Case" is the same as "VISION 2004 Fixed MPG Base Case" except that it uses EIA's average new vehicle fuel economy estimates to 2025 and then extends them, but assumes that all vehicles are conventional ICE engines operating on gasoline.
  • Download the VISION 2004 Auto ICE Model
• "VISION 2005 Fixed-MPG Base Case" is the same as the two earlier Fixed-MPG Base Case models except that it reflects data from EIA's AEO 2005 report.
  • Download the VISION 2005 Fixed MPG Model
• "VISION 2005 AEO ICE MPG Base Case" is the same as "VISION 2004 AEO ICE MPG Base Case" except that it reflects data from EIA's AEO 2005 report.
  • Download the VISION 2005 Auto ICE Model
• "VISION 2006 AEO ICE MPG Base Case" uses EIA's AEO 2006 projections of both advanced vehicle technology penetration and new vehicle fuel economy estimates to 2030 and then extends them.
  • Download the VISION 2006 AEO Model

Article

• Estimating Energy Use, Oil Use, and Carbon Emission Impacts of Advanced Vehicles and Fuels